Issued 2026-09-16 at $252.22 · now $252.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AEIS has typically landed between $213.50 and $304.28 — a range of −15.4% to +20.6% from the issuance price $252.22.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($252.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AEIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $252.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $252.22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $256.69 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $237.84–$275.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $213.5–$304.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −48.1% | −48.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −47.9% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +62.9% | +0.0% | +70.8% |
| 2008-11-19 | +55.8% | −6.7% | +59.3% |
| 2009-03-05 | +55.6% | −2.0% | +55.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.6%
n=20
Feb
70%
+4.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
+1.2%
n=20
Apr
45%
−0.2%
n=20
May
75%
+5.2%
n=20
Jun
35%
+0.0%
n=20
Jul
65%
+4.0%
n=20
Aug
40%
−3.2%
n=20
Sep
30%
−1.7%
n=20
Oct
70%
+1.0%
n=20
Nov
70%
+3.9%
n=20
Dec
60%
+5.5%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Vonne Elizabeth Karpinski | officer | Sale | 632 @ $288.14 | $182K | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 265 @ $288.14 | $76K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,952 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Vonne Elizabeth Karpinski | officer | Sale | 907 @ $290.05 | $263K | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,805 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 5,062 @ $313.82 | $1.6M | −12.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 3,998 @ $312.65 | $1.2M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 3,103 @ $314.92 | $977K | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 2,951 @ $311.80 | $920K | −6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 2,180 @ $315.66 | $688K | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,612 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 1,403 @ $319.41 | $448K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,449 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 1,280 @ $316.92 | $406K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Vonne Elizabeth Karpinski | officer | Sale | 908 @ $332.68 | $302K | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 720 @ $320.81 | $231K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 637 @ $322.64 | $206K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 568 @ $310.75 | $177K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,906 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 480 @ $318.62 | $153K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 425 @ $323.28 | $137K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 416 @ $322.14 | $134K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 407 @ $327.82 | $133K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 406 @ $309.73 | $126K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 335 @ $324.44 | $109K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 280 @ $328.74 | $92K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Sale | 120 @ $330.45 | $40K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 270 @ $345.00 | $93K | −3.2% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,217 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Shirley Brian | director | Sale | 1,234 @ $372.35 | $459K | −15.6% of holding | −22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Vonne Elizabeth Karpinski | officer | Sale | 966 @ $369.40 | $357K | −7.7% of holding | −18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,616 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 240 @ $380.52 | $91K | −3.7% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Oldham Paul R | officer | Sale | 4,314 @ $315.99 | $1.4M | −16.3% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,217 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 240 @ $312.59 | $75K | −3.6% of holding | +16.5% | −32.5% | 6,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Shirley Brian | director | Sale | 1,234 @ $310.19 | $383K | −18.1% of holding | +22.6% | −31.3% | 5,584 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 13,278 @ $319.05 | $4.2M | −13.0% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 88,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 7,535 @ $319.90 | $2.4M | −8.5% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 81,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 7,229 @ $317.94 | $2.3M | −6.6% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 102,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 5,678 @ $314.82 | $1.8M | −4.7% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 113,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 3,718 @ $313.80 | $1.2M | −3.0% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 119,573 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 3,330 @ $311.88 | $1.0M | −2.6% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 123,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 2,309 @ $317.21 | $732K | −2.1% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 109,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 2,312 @ $315.88 | $730K | −2.0% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 111,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 1,224 @ $309.77 | $379K | −1.0% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 126,621 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 1,112 @ $306.96 | $341K | −0.9% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 127,845 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 856 @ $321.13 | $275K | −1.1% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 80,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 876 @ $306.87 | $269K | −0.7% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 128,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Sale | 543 @ $305.48 | $166K | −0.4% of holding | +19.7% | −21.5% | 129,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Roush John A | director | Sale | 3,291 @ $324.29 | $1.1M | −9.7% of holding | +4.6% | −31.1% | 30,599 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Roush John A | director | Sale | 2,706 @ $325.26 | $880K | −8.8% of holding | +4.6% | −31.1% | 27,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Roush John A | director | Sale | 1,728 @ $322.32 | $557K | −4.8% of holding | +4.6% | −31.1% | 34,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Roush John A | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $319.78 | $384K | −3.2% of holding | +4.6% | −31.1% | 36,618 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Roush John A | director | Sale | 500 @ $323.79 | $162K | −1.5% of holding | +4.6% | −31.1% | 33,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Roush John A | director | Sale | 500 @ $320.76 | $160K | −1.4% of holding | +4.6% | −31.1% | 36,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Roush John A | director | Sale | 300 @ $326.75 | $98K | −1.1% of holding | +4.6% | −31.1% | 27,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | COLPITTS BERNARD RAYMOND JR | officer | Sale | 1,104 @ $325.60 | $359K | −40.1% of holding | +6.6% | −29.7% | 1,647 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Vonne Elizabeth Karpinski | officer | Sale | 964 @ $328.42 | $317K | −7.6% of holding | +12.3% | −29.0% | 11,683 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Vonne Elizabeth Karpinski | officer | Sale | 0 @ $329.76 | $0 | −0.0% of holding | +12.3% | −29.0% | 11,683 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 240 @ $311.04 | $75K | −3.5% of holding | +4.9% | −12.8% | 6,654 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Minnix Lanesha | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $316.63 | $317K | −17.9% of holding | +2.2% | −2.9% | 4,585 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 240 @ $247.00 | $59K | −3.4% of holding | +23.4% | +1.4% | 6,894 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 240 @ $218.40 | $52K | −3.3% of holding | +16.6% | +53.5% | 7,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Donikowski Tina | director | Sale | 2,257 @ $210.33 | $475K | −21.5% of holding | +5.6% | +34.1% | 8,248 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Oldham Paul R | officer | Sale | 8,174 @ $203.11 | $1.7M | −24.8% of holding | +5.7% | +50.4% | 24,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | COLPITTS BERNARD RAYMOND JR | officer | Sale | 2,407 @ $196.82 | $474K | −59.4% of holding | +2.4% | +49.5% | 1,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | DelSanto Anne | director | Sale | 240 @ $200.27 | $48K | −3.2% of holding | +2.2% | +45.8% | 7,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
229 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Option exercise | 6,042 | 47,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Acebedo Eduardo Bernal | officer | Option exercise | 6,042 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | BEARD GRANT H | director | Gift | 9,000 | 60,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | FOSTER RONALD C | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Shirley Brian | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Roush John A | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | BALL FREDERICK | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | DelSanto Anne | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | BEARD GRANT H | director | Award / grant | 760 | 760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Minnix Lanesha | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Donikowski Tina | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | David Reed | director | Award / grant | 587 | 587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | BALL FREDERICK | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Donikowski Tina | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | BEARD GRANT H | director | Option exercise | 3,029 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | DelSanto Anne | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | FOSTER RONALD C | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Roush John A | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Shirley Brian | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Minnix Lanesha | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | David Reed | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 9,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Donikowski Tina | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 10,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Minnix Lanesha | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 6,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | DelSanto Anne | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 8,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | FOSTER RONALD C | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 6,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Minnix Lanesha | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 6,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Roush John A | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 29,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Roush John A | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 29,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | FOSTER RONALD C | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 6,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | BALL FREDERICK | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 3,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | BEARD GRANT H | director | Option exercise | 3,029 | 69,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | DelSanto Anne | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 8,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | David Reed | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 9,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | BEARD GRANT H | director | Option exercise | 3,029 | 69,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | BALL FREDERICK | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 3,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Shirley Brian | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 7,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Donikowski Tina | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 10,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Shirley Brian | director | Option exercise | 2,313 | 7,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kelley Stephen Douglas | director | Withheld for tax | 13,355 | 130,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oldham Paul R | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,902 | 28,526 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.