Issued 2026-09-16 at $84.25 · now $84.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AEHR has typically landed between $57.79 and $134.17 — a range of −31.4% to +59.2% from the issuance price $84.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($84.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AEHR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $84.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $84.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $84.89 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.46–$101.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.79–$134.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,000 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −57.3% | −57.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-29 | −51.4% | −52.8% | +3.2% |
| 2021-12-28 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +9.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-06-18 | +229.1% | −2.9% | +229.1% |
| 2021-07-08 | +173.8% | +0.0% | +238.8% |
| 2026-03-30 | +171.6% | +0.0% | +223.2% |
5,000 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Feb
65%
+11.7%
n=20
Mar
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Apr
50%
+6.5%
n=20
May
55%
+2.0%
n=20
Jun
30%
+2.6%
n=20
Jul
65%
+14.2%
n=20
Aug
40%
+1.3%
n=20
Sep
55%
+12.8%
n=20
Oct
35%
−3.8%
n=20
Nov
30%
−4.9%
n=20
Dec
50%
+3.1%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 3,994 @ $143.77 | $574K | −2.1% of holding | −39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,232 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 5,973 @ $140.00 | $836K | −1.5% of holding | −36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 381,989 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | SLAYEN HOWARD T | director | Sale | 5,700 @ $133.03 | $758K | −3.9% of holding | −36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,667 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $139.00 | $139K | −0.5% of holding | −36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 190,226 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $134.00 | $134K | −0.5% of holding | −36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,226 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | SALAMONE ALBERTO | officer | Sale | 5,472 @ $127.50 | $698K | −11.5% of holding | −30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | SALAMONE ALBERTO | officer | Sale | 4,200 @ $128.00 | $538K | −8.1% of holding | −30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Erickson Gayn | director | Sale | 38,452 @ $130.79 | $5.0M | −19.6% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $131.51 | $2.6M | −66.7% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 8,413 @ $130.00 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 387,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $131.09 | $983K | −13.8% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $130.95 | $982K | −12.1% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | OLIPHANT LAURA | director | Sale | 1,717 @ $133.00 | $228K | −9.6% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Erickson Gayn | director | Sale | 1,548 @ $132.27 | $205K | −0.8% of holding | −25.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $108.49 | $108K | −4.2% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | SLAYEN HOWARD T | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $108.30 | $2.2M | −12.0% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Sale | 1,301 @ $101.10 | $132K | −5.2% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Sale | 699 @ $100.69 | $70K | −2.7% of holding | −26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $82.13 | $1.6M | −40.0% of holding | +55.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 17,115 @ $100.00 | $1.7M | −27.4% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,261 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-22 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $93.50 | $187K | −27.9% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,177 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-22 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 604 @ $95.00 | $57K | −0.2% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,375 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $95.00 | $4.8M | −50.0% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | SALAMONE ALBERTO | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $94.56 | $1.4M | −23.8% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $91.00 | $910K | −16.5% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,686 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 8,787 @ $96.02 | $844K | −12.3% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,376 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 6,486 @ $94.09 | $610K | −4.1% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 152,716 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-20 | SALAMONE ALBERTO | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $89.57 | $1.3M | −19.2% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $88.09 | $661K | −1.9% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,979 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-20 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $90.00 | $450K | −3.3% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 2,431 @ $90.00 | $219K | −1.5% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 159,202 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-17 | SLAYEN HOWARD T | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $85.00 | $2.1M | −12.3% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,328 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-17 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $82.00 | $615K | −1.8% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 404,479 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $80.72 | $1.2M | −3.5% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,979 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | DANESH FARIBA | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $82.63 | $661K | −37.8% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $86.88 | $434K | −3.0% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | OLIPHANT LAURA | director | Sale | 4,665 @ $85.59 | $399K | −100.0% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $81.88 | $164K | −8.8% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | OLIPHANT LAURA | director | Sale | 1,716 @ $81.54 | $140K | −9.3% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | WIMMERS DIDIER | officer | Sale | 1,900 @ $72.02 | $137K | −15.1% of holding | +38.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,659 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-14 | RICHMOND DONALD P. II | officer | Sale | 17,011 @ $73.18 | $1.2M | −8.6% of holding | +31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | DANESH FARIBA | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $71.49 | $500K | −34.8% of holding | +27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-13 | WIMMERS DIDIER | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $71.11 | $249K | −21.8% of holding | +27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Erickson Gayn | director | Sale | 96,036 @ $70.58 | $6.8M | −32.7% of holding | +39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Erickson Gayn | director | Sale | 56,788 @ $70.58 | $4.0M | −22.8% of holding | +39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Sale | 10,888 @ $70.00 | $762K | −6.1% of holding | +39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,540 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-10 | DANESH FARIBA | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $70.05 | $245K | −21.0% of holding | +39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,143 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $67.36 | $135K | −8.0% of holding | +39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $70.00 | $2.1M | −6.6% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 426,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $67.75 | $1.7M | −18.5% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | RICHMOND DONALD P. II | officer | Sale | 15,751 @ $68.68 | $1.1M | −7.3% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 199,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Sale | 10,582 @ $68.15 | $721K | −18.2% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $68.00 | $340K | −3.6% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $67.90 | $340K | −4.5% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | OLIPHANT LAURA | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $68.36 | $205K | −39.1% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Sale | 2,503 @ $68.34 | $171K | −5.3% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Sale | 2,528 @ $66.31 | $168K | −5.6% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,641 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $66.27 | $80K | −2.8% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,441 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | POSEDEL RHEA J | director | Sale | 13,998 @ $30.02 | $420K | −3.0% of holding | +30.2% | +391.0% | 456,979 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $27.57 | $74K | −9.6% of holding | +56.4% | +313.1% | 25,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
228 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | WIMMERS DIDIER | officer | Withheld for tax | 317 | 12,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Siu Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 496 | 77,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Gift | 500 | 46,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 61,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 31,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 28,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Gift | 6,731 | 23,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | OLIPHANT LAURA | director | Gift | 500 | 17,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SALAMONE ALBERTO | officer | Withheld for tax | 204 | 51,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | SLAYEN HOWARD T | director | Gift | 5,000 | 166,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Erickson Gayn | director | Withheld for tax | 1,057 | 197,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Withheld for tax | 198 | 192,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Withheld for tax | 142 | 46,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Withheld for tax | 133 | 25,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | RICHMOND DONALD P. II | officer | Withheld for tax | 102 | 186,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Gift | 2,874 | 51,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Withheld for tax | 334 | 25,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | SCOTT GEOFFREY GATES | director | Gift | 10,000 | 30,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Erickson Gayn | director | Withheld for tax | 3,447 | 198,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Withheld for tax | 573 | 192,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | RICHMOND DONALD P. II | officer | Withheld for tax | 328 | 186,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Option exercise | 3,538 | 192,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Option exercise | 3,538 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Erickson Gayn | director | Withheld for tax | 4,404 | 202,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Siu Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 988 | 77,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Withheld for tax | 588 | 189,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Option exercise | 21,200 | 174,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | RICHMOND DONALD P. II | officer | Withheld for tax | 423 | 186,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Withheld for tax | 387 | 47,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Option exercise | 15,262 | 190,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Withheld for tax | 209 | 26,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Option exercise | 21,200 | 3,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Option exercise | 15,262 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Erickson Gayn | director | Withheld for tax | 3,091 | 206,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Siu Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,139 | 78,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | SALAMONE ALBERTO | officer | Withheld for tax | 556 | 51,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | ENGINEER ADIL | officer | Withheld for tax | 437 | 47,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | ROGERS VERNON | officer | Withheld for tax | 337 | 153,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | RICHMOND DONALD P. II | officer | Withheld for tax | 311 | 187,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | SPORCK ALISTAIR N | officer | Withheld for tax | 259 | 26,223 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.