Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.02 · now $9.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AEG has typically landed between $7.95 and $10.23 — a range of −11.9% to +13.4% from the issuance price $9.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AEG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.2 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.72–$9.67
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.95–$10.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −59.5% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −57.7% | −57.7% | +2.1% |
| 2008-09-30 | −56.3% | −56.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-21 | +87.7% | +0.0% | +110.5% |
| 2009-03-06 | +86.4% | −5.1% | +105.1% |
| 2008-11-20 | +84.8% | +0.0% | +110.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
16 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | BENCHIMOL ALBERT | director | Award / grant | 32 | 15,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ralph Jay Stuart | director | Award / grant | 32 | 8,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | McGarry John F | director | Award / grant | 32 | 15,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Boeren Leni | director | Award / grant | 21 | 4,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fouche Lori Dickerson | director | Award / grant | 32 | 8,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ramsay Caroline Frances | director | Award / grant | 32 | 10,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Herzog David L | director | Award / grant | 136 | 24,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wellauer Thomas Peter | director | Award / grant | 32 | 11,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellman Mark Alan | director | Award / grant | 32 | 15,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Boeren Leni | director | Award / grant | 4,160 | 4,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Ramsay Caroline Frances | director | Withheld for tax | 2,552 | 10,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Fuller Wilford H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 221,990 | 2,088,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Friese Eilard | director | Withheld for tax | 100,521 | 612,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Russell Duncan James | officer | Withheld for tax | 61,678 | 461,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Wellauer Thomas Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 2,632 | 11,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Fawcett Karen | director | Withheld for tax | 2,632 | 8,755 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.