AEBI · TickerCove

AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AGIndustrials · General Transportationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.98 · now $11.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AEBI has typically landed between $9.85 and $14.60 — a range of −17.8% to +21.9% from the issuance price $11.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

283 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-07-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.98 · 43% of range

$9.22 low$15.58 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+4.1%

typical move · IQR 15.4%

−17.8%worst (p90)+21.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AEBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.98 (+0.0%)
typical $12.47 (+4.1%)
middle 50% $11.55–$13.4
90% range $9.85–$14.6

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 283 windows spanning 2025-07-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-07-01	−88.3%	−88.9%	+0.0%
2026-02-25	−38.0%	−38.0%	+0.0%
2026-02-20	−36.4%	−36.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-11-11	+27.9%	−0.1%	+27.9%
2025-11-20	+27.3%	+0.0%	+28.9%
2025-11-17	+26.7%	−0.3%	+28.5%

283 overlapping windows · 2025-07-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+15.8%

n=1

Feb

−1.4%

n=1

Mar

−32.7%

n=1

Apr

100%

+19.7%

n=1

May

100%

+7.3%

n=1

Jun

100%

+0.8%

n=1

Jul

100%

+2.7%

n=1

Aug

50%

+8.9%

n=2

Sep

50%

−1.9%

n=2

Oct

−10.6%

n=1

Nov

100%

+7.1%

n=1

Dec

100%

+6.1%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-19	Schewerda Steffen	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $11.68	$58K	+7.1% of holding	+7.3%	not yet — horizon still open	75,375	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-19	Scherer Marcus Andreas	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $12.15	$24K	+10.0% of holding	+7.3%	not yet — horizon still open	22,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15	Schaub Patrick Francois	director	Purchase	6,500 @ $11.41	$74K	+15.0% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	49,963	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Portmann Marco	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $11.31	$57K	+20.0% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	30,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Schroeder Henning	officer	Purchase	3,000 @ $11.30	$34K	+5.2% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	61,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Meury Joel Michel	officer	Purchase	500 @ $11.30	$6K	ownership Δ n/a	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	500	Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade
2025-12-05	Schaub Patrick Francois	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $12.75	$96K	+20.9% of holding	+9.8%	−11.1%	43,463	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-25	Fruithof Barend Gerrit	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $12.01	$60K	+0.3% of holding	+6.8%	−6.5%	1,835,368	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21	Schewerda Steffen	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $10.68	$53K	+7.6% of holding	+12.6%	−1.4%	70,375	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-17	Schenkirsch Thomas	officer	Purchase	6,500 @ $10.90	$71K	+6.6% of holding	+25.9%	+4.3%	104,530	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14	Portmann Marco	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $11.20	$56K	+25.0% of holding	+23.4%	−5.5%	25,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-15	Farmer Jacob Owen	officer	Purchase	800 @ $12.50	$10K	+0.3% of holding	−7.3%	+3.5%	258,215	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26	Schenkirsch Thomas	officer	Purchase	3,500 @ $11.77	$41K	+3.7% of holding	−0.1%	+16.0%	98,030	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21	Fruithof Barend Gerrit	director	Purchase	6,000 @ $11.65	$70K	+0.3% of holding	+11.5%	+19.8%	1,830,368	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19	Schewerda Steffen	officer	Purchase	3,300 @ $12.18	$40K	+5.3% of holding	+4.8%	+24.4%	65,375	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18	Schroeder Henning	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $12.06	$24K	+3.6% of holding	+0.2%	+21.9%	58,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15	Portmann Marco	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $12.25	$61K	+33.3% of holding	+3.7%	+24.3%	20,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	Farmer Jacob Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	2,225	262,580	Form 4
2026-06-01	Fruithof Barend Gerrit	director	Award / grant	52,292	1,887,660	Form 4
2026-06-01	Farmer Jacob Owen	officer	Award / grant	24,550	264,805	Form 4
2026-06-01	Schewerda Steffen	officer	Award / grant	20,459	95,834	Form 4
2026-06-01	Portmann Marco	officer	Award / grant	10,459	40,459	Form 4
2026-06-01	Schaub Patrick Francois	director	Award / grant	8,334	58,297	Form 4
2026-06-01	Rickenbacher Andreas Frederic	director	Award / grant	8,134	116,884	Form 4
2026-06-01	Fruithof Barend Gerrit	director	Award / grant	8,013	1,895,673	Form 4
2026-06-01	Schenkirsch Thomas	officer	Award / grant	7,844	112,374	Form 4
2026-06-01	Schroeder Henning	officer	Award / grant	7,844	68,844	Form 4
2026-06-01	PIZZUTO TERRI	director	Award / grant	7,533	49,961	Form 4
2026-06-01	DINKINS MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	7,533	49,388	Form 4
2026-06-01	Freeman Angela K.	director	Award / grant	7,533	57,923	Form 4
2026-06-01	Spuhler-Hoffmann Daniela	director	Award / grant	7,412	29,912	Form 4
2026-06-01	Ritter Martin	director	Award / grant	7,412	49,825	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kaltenbach Stefan	officer	Award / grant	4,184	14,934	Form 4
2026-06-01	Scherer Marcus Andreas	officer	Award / grant	3,274	25,274	Form 4
2026-03-28	Farmer Jacob Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	14,963	240,255	Form 4
2026-01-30	Farmer Jacob Owen	officer	Withheld for tax	2,997	255,218	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i