Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.45 · now $33.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADV has typically landed between $23.08 and $45.81 — a range of −31.0% to +37.0% from the issuance price $33.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,664 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $33.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.75 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.31–$37.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.08–$45.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,664 windows spanning 2020-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-02 | −49.9% | −56.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | −49.3% | −51.3% | +10.7% |
| 2026-01-30 | −49.1% | −53.6% | +5.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-27 | +110.5% | +0.0% | +110.5% |
| 2026-04-01 | +92.6% | +0.0% | +92.6% |
| 2026-04-08 | +89.9% | +0.0% | +89.9% |
1,664 overlapping windows · 2020-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.3%
n=6
Feb
29%
−10.4%
n=7
Mar
43%
+1.1%
n=7
Apr
43%
+3.6%
n=7
May
43%
+1.8%
n=7
Jun
57%
+2.8%
n=7
Jul
57%
+5.3%
n=7
Aug
29%
−1.6%
n=7
Sep
29%
−10.1%
n=7
Oct
17%
−0.0%
n=6
Nov
50%
−2.5%
n=6
Dec
50%
+4.4%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Purchase | 800 @ $34.60 | $28K | +0.4% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Purchase | 800 @ $34.60 | $28K | +0.4% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 30,999 @ $0.79 | $25K | +2.0% of holding | +57.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,596,659 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 33,554 @ $0.77 | $26K | +2.2% of holding | +60.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,565,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 16,759 @ $0.70 | $12K | +1.1% of holding | +41.0% | +61.4% | 1,532,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 75,368 @ $0.69 | $52K | +5.2% of holding | +52.8% | +72.6% | 1,515,347 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 66,499 @ $0.61 | $41K | +4.8% of holding | +48.3% | +82.0% | 1,439,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Growe Christopher | officer | Purchase | 50,000 @ $0.60 | $30K | +25.8% of holding | +49.6% | +81.4% | 244,021 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $0.64 | $129K | +5.7% of holding | +58.5% | +96.6% | 3,701,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 9,700 @ $1.29 | $12K | +0.7% of holding | +17.8% | −48.9% | 1,373,480 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 15,755 @ $1.24 | $19K | +1.2% of holding | +26.2% | −37.0% | 1,363,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 5,494 @ $1.29 | $7K | +0.4% of holding | +19.5% | −38.6% | 1,348,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 23,314 @ $1.24 | $29K | +1.8% of holding | +11.1% | −47.4% | 1,342,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 16,491 @ $1.21 | $20K | +1.3% of holding | +29.8% | −34.6% | 1,319,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 19,627 @ $1.23 | $24K | +1.5% of holding | +13.4% | −36.8% | 1,302,726 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 11,400 @ $1.28 | $15K | +0.9% of holding | +1.4% | −40.1% | 1,283,099 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 10,003 @ $1.27 | $13K | +0.9% of holding | +0.7% | −41.7% | 1,130,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 26,523 @ $1.21 | $32K | +2.4% of holding | +0.9% | −42.6% | 1,120,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 14,100 @ $1.13 | $16K | +1.3% of holding | +13.6% | −25.4% | 1,094,044 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 35,835 @ $1.18 | $42K | +3.4% of holding | +24.9% | −29.9% | 1,079,944 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 24,224 @ $1.22 | $30K | +2.4% of holding | +25.8% | −26.3% | 1,044,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 21,122 @ $1.28 | $27K | +2.1% of holding | +29.9% | −26.4% | 1,019,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 31,740 @ $1.23 | $39K | +3.3% of holding | +27.0% | −25.4% | 998,763 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 27,541 @ $1.28 | $35K | +2.9% of holding | +24.0% | −22.5% | 967,023 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 10,005 @ $1.08 | $11K | +1.1% of holding | +40.1% | −4.4% | 939,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Purchase | 75,000 @ $1.15 | $86K | +2.2% of holding | +27.0% | −0.9% | 3,558,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 36,181 @ $1.57 | $57K | +4.1% of holding | −13.3% | +1.8% | 929,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 27,951 @ $1.64 | $46K | +3.2% of holding | −17.2% | +1.9% | 893,296 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Purchase | 34,708 @ $1.69 | $59K | +4.2% of holding | −26.1% | −2.8% | 865,345 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Poole Deborah | director | Sale | 34,000 @ $1.72 | $58K | −18.0% of holding | −18.4% | −5.9% | 154,632 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Growe Christopher | officer | Purchase | 6,657 @ $1.75 | $12K | +5.9% of holding | −18.4% | −5.9% | 120,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Purchase | 70,000 @ $1.74 | $122K | +2.9% of holding | −14.5% | −3.7% | 2,489,438 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Growe Christopher | officer | Purchase | 3,343 @ $1.59 | $5K | +3.0% of holding | −14.5% | −3.7% | 113,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Harsh Jeffrey Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 530 | 18,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Growe Christopher | officer | Gift | 7,202 | 16,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Growe Christopher | officer | Gift | 7,202 | 34,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Taylor Michael Larry | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,403 | 54,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Growe Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,162 | 41,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Taylor Michael Larry | officer | Option exercise | 7,092 | 57,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Taylor Michael Larry | officer | Option exercise | 7,092 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Growe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 3,971 | 43,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Growe Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 3,971 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | WEST DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 4,477 | 18,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | KILTS JAMES M | director | Award / grant | 4,477 | 78,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Poole Deborah | director | Award / grant | 4,477 | 16,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Ratzan Brian K. | director | Award / grant | 4,477 | 30,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Costa Virginie | director | Award / grant | 4,477 | 18,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | MACEDONIO JODY L | director | Award / grant | 4,477 | 16,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Manherz Robin | director | Award / grant | 4,477 | 18,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Karman Topco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 190,324 | 6,998,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Karman Topco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 190,324 | 6,998,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Award / grant | 56,000 | 4,045,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 24,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Johnson George Ricardo | officer | Award / grant | 13,462 | 25,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Johnson George Ricardo | officer | Award / grant | 5,769 | 5,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Taylor Michael Larry | officer | Award / grant | 23,692 | 50,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Taylor Michael Larry | officer | Award / grant | 10,154 | 10,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Gore Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 16,000 | 22,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Harsh Jeffrey Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 12,923 | 18,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Harsh Jeffrey Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 5,538 | 5,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Growe Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 25,846 | 39,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Growe Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 11,077 | 11,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Growe Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 44,000 | 44,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Growe Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 496 | 13,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Taylor Michael Larry | officer | Withheld for tax | 387 | 26,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Growe Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,701 | 14,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Johnson George Ricardo | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,401 | 12,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Taylor Michael Larry | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,291 | 27,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gore Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,785 | 6,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Award / grant | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Option exercise | 287,736 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Option exercise | 287,736 | 3,989,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | PEACOCK DAVID A | director | Withheld for tax | 57,167 | 3,501,366 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.