Issued 2026-09-16 at $118.51 · now $118.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADUS has typically landed between $104.61 and $135.20 — a range of −11.7% to +14.1% from the issuance price $118.51.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,225 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($118.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADUS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $118.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $118.51 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $119.81 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $113.23–$126.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $104.61–$135.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,225 windows spanning 2009-10-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-14 | −53.4% | −53.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −48.4% | −48.4% | +1.0% |
| 2015-10-19 | −41.8% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-03-01 | +68.0% | −2.0% | +68.0% |
| 2013-03-04 | +56.9% | +0.0% | +71.4% |
| 2020-03-17 | +55.6% | +0.0% | +68.9% |
4,225 overlapping windows · 2009-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
35%
−1.2%
n=17
Feb
47%
−0.7%
n=17
Mar
47%
+4.2%
n=17
Apr
59%
+0.7%
n=17
May
71%
+8.2%
n=17
Jun
47%
+1.3%
n=17
Jul
47%
+1.8%
n=17
Aug
53%
+3.0%
n=17
Sep
65%
+0.7%
n=17
Oct
44%
−2.8%
n=16
Nov
65%
+8.1%
n=17
Dec
65%
+0.5%
n=17
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Dixon Heather Brianne | director | Sale | 288 @ $93.77 | $27K | −0.6% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Lopez Esteban | director | Sale | 250 @ $93.00 | $23K | −7.2% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Lopez Esteban | director | Sale | 250 @ $93.00 | $23K | −6.8% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | BLESSING CLIFF DONALD | officer | Sale | 178 @ $93.61 | $17K | −1.4% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RAINES MONICA | officer | Sale | 224 @ $102.15 | $23K | −1.6% of holding | −6.0% | −3.4% | 13,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 2,364 @ $105.36 | $249K | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 183,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Sale | 820 @ $105.36 | $86K | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 63,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GAFFNEY SEAN | officer | Sale | 442 @ $105.36 | $47K | −2.2% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 20,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Anderson Darby | officer | Sale | 396 @ $105.36 | $42K | −0.8% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 46,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | TUCKER DAVID W. | officer | Sale | 379 @ $105.36 | $40K | −3.5% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 10,423 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | WATTENBARGER MICHAEL D. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $105.36 | $32K | −3.1% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 9,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Stevenson Roberton James | officer | Sale | 284 @ $105.36 | $30K | −2.0% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 14,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | RAINES MONICA | officer | Sale | 219 @ $105.36 | $23K | −1.6% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 13,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BLESSING CLIFF DONALD | officer | Sale | 177 @ $105.36 | $19K | −1.4% of holding | −2.5% | +1.1% | 12,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 4,988 @ $106.98 | $534K | −2.6% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 185,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Sale | 2,041 @ $106.98 | $218K | −3.1% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 64,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | GAFFNEY SEAN | officer | Sale | 817 @ $106.98 | $87K | −3.8% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 20,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Anderson Darby | officer | Sale | 733 @ $106.98 | $78K | −1.5% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 46,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | TUCKER DAVID W. | officer | Sale | 704 @ $107.35 | $76K | −6.1% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 10,802 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | WATTENBARGER MICHAEL D. | officer | Sale | 592 @ $107.35 | $64K | −5.7% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 9,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Stevenson Roberton James | officer | Sale | 567 @ $107.35 | $61K | −3.8% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 14,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | RAINES MONICA | officer | Sale | 437 @ $106.99 | $47K | −3.0% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 14,020 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | BLESSING CLIFF DONALD | officer | Sale | 350 @ $107.14 | $37K | −2.7% of holding | −1.4% | +3.1% | 12,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 4,535 @ $114.91 | $521K | −2.3% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 190,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Sale | 1,858 @ $114.91 | $214K | −2.7% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 66,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | GAFFNEY SEAN | officer | Sale | 737 @ $114.91 | $85K | −3.3% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 21,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Anderson Darby | officer | Sale | 666 @ $114.91 | $77K | −1.4% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 47,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | TUCKER DAVID W. | officer | Sale | 658 @ $114.91 | $76K | −5.4% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 11,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | WATTENBARGER MICHAEL D. | officer | Sale | 577 @ $114.91 | $66K | −5.3% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 10,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Stevenson Roberton James | officer | Sale | 561 @ $114.91 | $64K | −3.6% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 14,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | RAINES MONICA | officer | Sale | 446 @ $114.91 | $51K | −3.0% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 14,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | BLESSING CLIFF DONALD | officer | Sale | 371 @ $114.91 | $43K | −2.8% of holding | −11.6% | −9.8% | 12,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Lopez Esteban | director | Sale | 100 @ $115.50 | $12K | −2.6% of holding | −6.6% | −27.9% | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Lopez Esteban | director | Sale | 50 @ $114.55 | $6K | −1.3% of holding | −6.6% | −27.9% | 3,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Lopez Esteban | director | Sale | 166 @ $112.78 | $19K | −4.1% of holding | −1.2% | −26.2% | 3,850 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Anderson Darby | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $109.00 | $2.2M | −31.2% of holding | +0.5% | −28.2% | 44,144 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 20,565 @ $115.72 | $2.4M | −10.7% of holding | −4.5% | −16.3% | 170,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 4,435 @ $116.34 | $516K | −2.6% of holding | −4.5% | −16.3% | 166,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | BICKHAM W BRADLEY | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $115.75 | $463K | −9.6% of holding | −4.5% | −16.3% | 37,605 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Sale | 4,106 @ $116.55 | $479K | −6.3% of holding | −3.0% | −16.3% | 60,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Sale | 3,633 @ $117.13 | $426K | −6.0% of holding | −3.0% | −16.3% | 56,980 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 17,560 @ $114.71 | $2.0M | −9.2% of holding | −6.9% | −8.1% | 173,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 7,440 @ $115.53 | $860K | −4.3% of holding | −6.9% | −8.1% | 166,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Hill-Milbourne Veronica | director | Sale | 1,571 @ $114.93 | $181K | −23.7% of holding | −8.6% | −8.2% | 5,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | BICKHAM W BRADLEY | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $115.49 | $924K | −15.8% of holding | −7.2% | −9.7% | 42,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | BICKHAM W BRADLEY | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $114.18 | $114K | −1.9% of holding | −7.2% | −9.7% | 50,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Lopez Esteban | director | Sale | 522 @ $109.00 | $57K | −11.5% of holding | +0.5% | −15.4% | 4,016 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Stevenson Roberton James | officer | Sale | 228 @ $112.99 | $26K | −1.8% of holding | −8.7% | −13.0% | 12,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | TUCKER DAVID W. | officer | Sale | 2,403 @ $115.43 | $277K | −21.6% of holding | −9.7% | −18.8% | 8,735 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | WATTENBARGER MICHAEL D. | officer | Sale | 2,045 @ $115.00 | $235K | −20.8% of holding | −3.8% | −13.5% | 7,796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | BLESSING CLIFF DONALD | officer | Sale | 178 @ $101.17 | $18K | −1.7% of holding | +0.3% | −6.6% | 10,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | RAINES MONICA | officer | Sale | 237 @ $96.23 | $23K | −1.6% of holding | +7.8% | +11.4% | 14,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Sale | 2,564 @ $99.98 | $256K | −2.4% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 102,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | BICKHAM W BRADLEY | officer | Sale | 2,444 @ $99.74 | $244K | −4.5% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 51,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Sale | 2,304 @ $99.88 | $230K | −6.5% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 32,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | GAFFNEY SEAN | officer | Sale | 479 @ $99.84 | $48K | −2.6% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 18,179 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Anderson Darby | officer | Sale | 418 @ $99.88 | $42K | −0.9% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 44,144 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | TUCKER DAVID W. | officer | Sale | 411 @ $99.77 | $41K | −3.6% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 11,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | WATTENBARGER MICHAEL D. | officer | Sale | 343 @ $99.71 | $34K | −3.4% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 9,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Stevenson Roberton James | officer | Sale | 308 @ $99.90 | $31K | −2.3% of holding | +2.6% | +7.8% | 12,812 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Gordon Darin J. | director | Award / grant | 1,449 | 14,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | RUSH JEAN | director | Award / grant | 1,449 | 10,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | EARLEY MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,449 | 13,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | FIRST MARK L | director | Award / grant | 1,449 | 15,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Weaver Susan T | director | Award / grant | 1,449 | 13,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hill-Milbourne Veronica | director | Award / grant | 1,449 | 6,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lopez Esteban | director | Award / grant | 1,449 | 4,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Stevenson Roberton James | officer | Award / grant | 2,858 | 15,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | WATTENBARGER MICHAEL D. | officer | Award / grant | 3,117 | 10,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | RAINES MONICA | officer | Award / grant | 2,858 | 14,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | BLESSING CLIFF DONALD | officer | Award / grant | 2,858 | 13,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Anderson Darby | officer | Award / grant | 3,897 | 48,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Award / grant | 28,576 | 195,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | TUCKER DAVID W. | officer | Award / grant | 3,429 | 12,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | GAFFNEY SEAN | officer | Award / grant | 3,897 | 22,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Award / grant | 11,431 | 68,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Dixon Heather Brianne | director | Award / grant | 12,470 | 44,659 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Anderson Darby | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 64,144 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Anderson Darby | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Dixon Heather Brianne | director | Award / grant | 28,370 | 32,189 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 191,461 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 191,461 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | BICKHAM W BRADLEY | officer | Gift | 900 | 41,605 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Hill-Milbourne Veronica | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 6,638 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | FIRST MARK L | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 13,621 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Gordon Darin J. | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 12,795 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Weaver Susan T | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 12,295 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | EARLEY MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 11,951 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Dixon Heather Brianne | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 3,819 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | RUSH JEAN | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 9,221 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Lopez Esteban | director | Award / grant | 1,172 | 4,538 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | POFF BRIAN | officer | Award / grant | 31,750 | 64,719 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | ALLISON R DIRK | director | Award / grant | 63,500 | 166,461 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Anderson Darby | officer | Award / grant | 5,150 | 45,904 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | WATTENBARGER MICHAEL D. | officer | Award / grant | 4,120 | 11,335 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | RAINES MONICA | officer | Award / grant | 3,776 | 15,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | BICKHAM W BRADLEY | officer | Award / grant | 14,419 | 57,419 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | GAFFNEY SEAN | officer | Award / grant | 5,150 | 20,190 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.