ADTNADTRAN Holdings Inc.Technology · Communication Equipmentas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.09 · now $7.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADTN has typically landed between $5.36 and $8.92 — a range of −24.4% to +25.8% from the issuance price $7.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ADTN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.36worst · -24.4%$8.92best · +25.8%
  • now $7.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.02 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.3–$7.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.36–$8.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-03-31−44.5%−44.5%+0.0%
2026-07-09−44.2%−44.6%+0.0%
2023-04-03−43.7%−43.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+84.4%+0.0%+84.4%
2020-03-17+61.9%+0.0%+80.6%
2020-03-23+58.6%+0.0%+73.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Mar
30%
−2.3%
n=20
Apr
45%
+3.0%
n=20
May
65%
+3.5%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Jul
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Aug
30%
−4.3%
n=20
Sep
40%
−3.0%
n=20
Oct
40%
−3.0%
n=20
Nov
45%
+1.5%
n=20
Dec
65%
+4.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$72026-08-06: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Santo Timothy P2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $137K — Wilson James Denson Jr2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $334K — Glingener Christoph2026-05-07: 2 insider sales, $1.9M — Glingener Christoph …2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $148K — Jacqueline Hourigan Rice2025-11-28: 1 insider purchase, $49K — Santo Timothy P2025-11-26: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Theodosopoulos Nikos2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $300K — STANTON THOMAS R2025-11: 3 open-market purchases, $450K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $148K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Santo Timothy P — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wilson James Denson Jr — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Glingener Christoph — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Glingener Christoph — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Glingener Christoph — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Jacqueline Hourigan Rice — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Santo Timothy P — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Theodosopoulos Nikos — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector STANTON THOMAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Santo Timothy PofficerPurchase6,579 @ $7.60$50K+12.3% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open59,924Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Wilson James Denson JrofficerSale9,332 @ $14.72$137K−6.1% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open143,277Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Glingener ChristophofficerSale22,277 @ $15.00$334K−32.3% of holding−4.5%not yet — horizon still open46,645Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-07Glingener ChristophofficerSale84,895 @ $15.06$1.3M−64.5% of holding+9.1%not yet — horizon still open46,645Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07Glingener ChristophofficerSale41,220 @ $14.73$607K−46.9% of holding+9.1%not yet — horizon still open46,645Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Jacqueline Hourigan RicedirectorSale14,406 @ $10.29$148K−51.1% of holding+29.7%−38.9%13,809Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28Santo Timothy PofficerPurchase6,150 @ $8.02$49K+30.1% of holding+10.8%+118.5%26,594Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-26Theodosopoulos NikosdirectorPurchase12,859 @ $7.81$100K+32.7% of holding+7.3%+111.7%52,154Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-24STANTON THOMAS RdirectorPurchase40,928 @ $7.33$300K+4.3% of holding+16.3%+116.7%982,096Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Glingener ChristophofficerAward / grant27,92483,953Form 4
2026-07-24Glingener ChristophofficerAward / grant9,38456,029Form 4
2026-07-01DelSanto AnnedirectorAward / grant4,3994,399Form 4
2026-05-20Wilson James Denson JrofficerGift10,469132,808Form 4
2026-05-08Glingener ChristophofficerOption exercise22,27768,922Form 4
2026-05-08Glingener ChristophofficerOption exercise22,2770Form 4
2026-05-07Glingener ChristophofficerOption exercise84,895131,540Form 4
2026-05-07Glingener ChristophofficerOption exercise41,22087,865Form 4
2026-05-07Glingener ChristophofficerOption exercise84,89522,277Form 4
2026-05-07Glingener ChristophofficerOption exercise41,2200Form 4
2026-04-01Santo Timothy PofficerAward / grant28,25253,345Form 4
2026-04-01STANTON THOMAS RdirectorAward / grant170,7231,126,554Form 4
2026-04-01Wilson James Denson JrofficerAward / grant24,908152,609Form 4
2026-03-19Santo Timothy PofficerWithheld for tax1,50125,093Form 4
2026-01-26STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax14,409939,905Form 4
2026-01-26STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax12,407955,471Form 4
2026-01-26Wilson James Denson JrofficerWithheld for tax1,087127,923Form 4
2026-01-26Wilson James Denson JrofficerWithheld for tax998125,233Form 4
2026-01-26Wilson James Denson JrofficerAward / grant3,777129,010Form 4
2026-01-26STANTON THOMAS RdirectorAward / grant27,973967,878Form 4
2026-01-24STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax17,535954,314Form 4
2026-01-24Wilson James Denson JrofficerWithheld for tax1,227126,231Form 4
2026-01-20STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax10,247971,849Form 4
2026-01-20Wilson James Denson JrofficerWithheld for tax765127,458Form 4
2025-12-31Theodosopoulos NikosdirectorAward / grant13,80965,963Form 4
2025-12-31Jacqueline Hourigan RicedirectorAward / grant13,80928,215Form 4
2025-12-31HUSS H FENWICKdirectorAward / grant13,809107,600Form 4
2025-12-31Nair BalandirectorAward / grant13,809125,373Form 4
2025-12-31McCray Gregory JamesdirectorAward / grant13,80972,893Form 4
2025-12-31Walker Kathryn AdirectorAward / grant13,80998,663Form 4
2025-11-17STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax3,355941,168Form 4
2025-11-17Wilson James Denson JrofficerWithheld for tax468128,223Form 4
2025-07-13STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax5,663944,523Form 4
2025-04-13STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax5,408950,186Form 4
2025-03-19Santo Timothy PofficerAward / grant20,44420,444Form 4
2025-01-26STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax9,536955,594Form 4
2025-01-26Dopfer UlrichofficerWithheld for tax1,16748,195Form 4
2025-01-26Wilson James Denson JrofficerWithheld for tax845128,691Form 4
2025-01-24STANTON THOMAS RdirectorWithheld for tax10,307805,286Form 4
2025-01-24Dopfer UlrichofficerWithheld for tax4,61332,978Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.