ADTADT Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.03 · now $7.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADT has typically landed between $6.21 and $8.01 — a range of −11.6% to +14.0% from the issuance price $7.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,143 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-01-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ADT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.21worst · -11.6%$8.01best · +14.0%
  • now $7.03 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.05 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.72–$7.38
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.21–$8.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,143 windows spanning 2018-01-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−46.3%−46.3%+0.0%
2020-02-20−45.4%−45.7%+0.0%
2020-02-18−44.7%−44.7%+2.8%
3 best
2020-07-02+74.9%−4.0%+74.9%
2020-07-07+68.0%−2.7%+77.2%
2020-07-09+65.0%+0.0%+82.2%

2,143 overlapping windows · 2018-01-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
38%
+0.8%
n=8
Feb
56%
−1.9%
n=9
Mar
33%
−9.8%
n=9
Apr
56%
+5.6%
n=9
May
56%
+0.6%
n=9
Jun
78%
+3.9%
n=9
Jul
78%
+5.0%
n=9
Aug
44%
−1.7%
n=9
Sep
44%
+0.3%
n=9
Oct
50%
−0.3%
n=8
Nov
75%
+6.4%
n=8
Dec
38%
−2.8%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$62026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Likosar Jeffrey2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $25K — Miller Kimberly2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $51K — Ahmad Fawad2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Khan Omar2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Houston Daniel Joseph2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $49K — Scott David A.2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $49K2026-05: 5 open-market purchases, $477K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Likosar Jeffrey — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Miller Kimberly — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Ahmad Fawad — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed same dayofficer Khan Omar — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Houston Daniel Joseph — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Scott David A. — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-29Likosar JeffreyofficerPurchase15,000 @ $6.75$101K+2.5% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open623,195Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Miller KimberlyofficerPurchase3,625 @ $6.91$25K+6.9% of holding−3.1%not yet — horizon still open55,984Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-12Ahmad FawaddirectorPurchase7,500 @ $6.75$51K+2.5% of holding−0.5%not yet — horizon still open302,334Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11Khan OmarofficerPurchase7,280 @ $6.88$50Kownership Δ n/a+0.4%not yet — horizon still open7,280Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Houston Daniel JosephdirectorPurchase36,450 @ $6.87$250K+95.0% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open74,812Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05Scott David A.officerPurchase7,300 @ $6.72$49Kownership Δ n/a+2.6%not yet — horizon still open7,300Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-28Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherSale71,000,000 @ $8.31$590.0M−38.7% of holding+2.5%−13.3%112,650,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherSale71,000,000 @ $8.31$590.0M−38.7% of holding+2.5%−13.3%112,650,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-04Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherSale45,000,000 @ $8.27$372.1M−19.7% of holding−5.8%−19.6%183,650,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-04Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherSale45,000,000 @ $8.27$372.1M−19.7% of holding−5.8%−19.6%183,650,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherSale50,000,000 @ $8.02$401.0M−17.9% of holding−5.4%−19.7%228,650,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherSale50,000,000 @ $8.02$401.0M−17.9% of holding−5.4%−19.7%228,650,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

182 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-07Smith Paul JosephdirectorAward / grant21044,792Form 4
2026-07-07Griffin Tracey R.directorAward / grant210153,560Form 4
2026-07-07Ahmad FawaddirectorAward / grant1,703304,036Form 4
2026-07-07Zarmi SigaldirectorAward / grant210108,018Form 4
2026-07-07Tiedt DanielledirectorAward / grant21064,926Form 4
2026-07-07Yoon SuzannedirectorAward / grant21060,430Form 4
2026-07-07Dernberger ToddofficerAward / grant10045,494Form 4
2026-07-07Miller KimberlyofficerAward / grant41756,401Form 4
2026-07-07Houston Daniel JosephdirectorAward / grant210101,376Form 4
2026-07-07Winter Matthew EdirectorAward / grant210152,789Form 4
2026-07-07Gartland Thomas MdirectorAward / grant21051,746Form 4
2026-05-27Winter Matthew EdirectorAward / grant26,354152,579Form 4
2026-05-27Zarmi SigaldirectorAward / grant26,354107,808Form 4
2026-05-27Griffin Tracey R.directorAward / grant26,354153,350Form 4
2026-05-27Yoon SuzannedirectorAward / grant26,35460,220Form 4
2026-05-27Smith Paul JosephdirectorAward / grant26,35444,582Form 4
2026-05-27Gartland Thomas MdirectorAward / grant26,35451,536Form 4
2026-05-27Tiedt DanielledirectorAward / grant26,35464,716Form 4
2026-05-27Houston Daniel JosephdirectorAward / grant26,354101,166Form 4
2026-05-05Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherOther acquisition102,000,3660Form 4
2026-05-05Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLCotherOther acquisition102,000,3660Form 4
2026-05-01Ahmad FawaddirectorWithheld for tax26,045294,834Form 4
2026-04-02Winter Matthew EdirectorAward / grant150126,225Form 4
2026-04-02Ahmad FawaddirectorAward / grant2,644320,879Form 4
2026-04-02Tiedt DanielledirectorAward / grant15038,362Form 4
2026-04-02Yoon SuzannedirectorAward / grant15033,866Form 4
2026-04-02Dernberger ToddofficerAward / grant10445,394Form 4
2026-04-02Miller KimberlyofficerAward / grant43152,359Form 4
2026-04-02Smith Paul JosephdirectorAward / grant15018,228Form 4
2026-04-02Houston Daniel JosephdirectorAward / grant15038,362Form 4
2026-04-02Gartland Thomas MdirectorAward / grant15025,182Form 4
2026-04-02Griffin Tracey R.directorAward / grant150126,996Form 4
2026-04-02Zarmi SigaldirectorAward / grant15081,454Form 4
2026-03-08Dernberger ToddofficerWithheld for tax5,82645,290Form 4
2026-03-05Scott David A.officerAward / grant445,103445,103Form 4
2026-03-05DeVries James DaviddirectorAward / grant4,793,0664,793,066Form 4
2026-03-05Dernberger ToddofficerAward / grant445,103445,103Form 4
2026-03-05Smail David WofficerAward / grant556,379556,379Form 4
2026-03-05Burzo StevenofficerAward / grant166,913166,913Form 4
2026-03-05Ahmad FawaddirectorAward / grant445,103445,103Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-12-162020-11-03$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2019-06-272019-05-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2019-06-272019-05-22$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-04-292016-04-11$15–50K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-04-292016-04-07$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-04-292016-04-05$15–50K
Thomas MacarthurHousesale2016-03-032016-02-17$1–15K
Thomas MacarthurHousesale2016-03-032016-02-17$1–15K
Thomas MacarthurHousesale2016-03-032016-02-16$15–50K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-03-012016-02-19$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-03-012016-02-23$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-03-012016-02-17$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-03-012016-02-17$1–15K
David PerdueSenatesale2016-03-012016-02-16$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.