ADSKAutodesk, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $220.31 · now $220.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADSK has typically landed between $186.25 and $252.86 — a range of −15.5% to +14.8% from the issuance price $220.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($220.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ADSK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $220.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$186.25worst · -15.5%$252.86best · +14.8%
  • now $220.31 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $220.49 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $206.87–$234.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $186.25–$252.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−41.3%−41.3%+0.0%
2008-10-23−37.3%−37.3%+1.4%
2008-09-25−36.2%−36.2%+2.9%
3 best
2009-03-11+56.8%+0.0%+56.8%
2009-03-06+52.0%−2.0%+52.0%
2009-03-09+50.3%+0.0%+55.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$44.3B
market cap
$6.86
EPS (TTM)
30.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-27
next earnings
Revenue$7.2B
'21'26
Net income$1.1B
'21'26
Free cash flow$2.4B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr15.6%
'21'26
ROE · by yr36.9%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.90
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $220.31$113.77$387.91
  • DCF (intrinsic)$132.67
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$234.65
  • Analyst target · range $262.00–$369.00$302.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$220.31

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.8%
n=19
May
47%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
−3.1%
n=19
Jul
58%
+4.6%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.4%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$327$1882026-06-23: 1 insider purchase, $378K — CAHILL JOHN T2026-06-16: 1 insider purchase, $499K — Anagnost Andrew2026-06-15: 1 insider purchase, $494K — Moorjani Janesh2026-05-29: 2 insider purchases, $794K — Smith Stacy J …2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $298K — Howard Ayanna2025-09-05: 4 insider sales, $7.3M — Blum Steven M …2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $870K — Keene Ruth Ann2025-08-29: 3 insider sales, $3.0M — Pearce Rebecca, Howard Ayanna …2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $3.0M2025-09: 6 open-market sales, $8.4M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $794K2026-06: 3 open-market purchases, $1.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector CAHILL JOHN T — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed same daydirector Anagnost Andrew — Purchase on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Moorjani Janesh — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed same daydirector Smith Stacy J — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed same daydirector Smith Stacy J — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed same daydirector Howard Ayanna — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blum Steven M — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Blum Steven M — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Blum Steven M — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Blum Steven M — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Keene Ruth Ann — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pearce Rebecca — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed same daydirector Howard Ayanna — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed same dayofficer Pearce Rebecca — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23CAHILL JOHN TdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $189.20$378K+100.0% of holding+8.1%not yet — horizon still open4,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16Anagnost AndrewdirectorPurchase2,460 @ $202.66$499K+1.2% of holding+9.1%not yet — horizon still open202,963Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15Moorjani JaneshofficerPurchase2,500 @ $197.67$494K+5.2% of holding+9.6%not yet — horizon still open50,993Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-29Smith Stacy JdirectorPurchase2,739 @ $231.34$634K+11.5% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open26,517Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-29Smith Stacy JdirectorPurchase696 @ $230.48$160K+3.0% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open23,778Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-29Howard AyannadirectorSale917 @ $325.00$298K−20.9% of holding−6.9%−24.2%3,476Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-05Blum Steven MofficerSale11,366 @ $324.41$3.7M−45.5% of holding−5.0%−25.5%13,619Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05Blum Steven MofficerSale5,264 @ $323.44$1.7M−17.4% of holding−5.0%−25.5%24,985Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05Blum Steven MofficerSale5,270 @ $322.51$1.7M−14.8% of holding−5.0%−25.5%30,249Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05Blum Steven MofficerSale520 @ $325.03$169K−3.8% of holding−5.0%−25.5%13,099Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-03Keene Ruth AnnofficerSale2,761 @ $315.10$870K−3.3% of holding−3.2%−23.3%80,255Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-29Pearce RebeccaofficerSale3,752 @ $325.00$1.2M−22.0% of holding−2.6%−25.6%13,311Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-29Howard AyannadirectorSale3,159 @ $325.00$1.0M−41.8% of holding−2.6%−25.6%4,393Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-29Pearce RebeccaofficerSale2,377 @ $320.00$761K−12.2% of holding−2.6%−25.6%17,063Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-03Pearce RebeccaofficerSale3,251 @ $315.00$1.0M−14.3% of holding−5.4%−19.3%19,440Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-30Pearce RebeccaofficerSale3,110 @ $310.00$964K−12.1% of holding−3.2%−14.7%22,691Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-24Pearce RebeccaofficerSale2,544 @ $305.00$776K−9.0% of holding−5.6%−14.7%25,801Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-17Pearce RebeccaofficerSale486 @ $300.00$146K−1.7% of holding−5.3%−15.2%28,345Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01Hope Stephen W.officerSale57 @ $261.18$15K−1.9% of holding+3.8%−0.5%3,003Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-28Hope Stephen W.officerSale2,452 @ $267.29$655K−44.9% of holding+4.5%+3.0%3,003Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-21CAHILL JOHN TdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $267.10$534Kownership Δ n/a+4.2%+2.5%2,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-11NORRINGTON LORRIE MdirectorSale1,778 @ $305.37$543K−15.1% of holding−2.9%−2.5%9,981Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-06NORRINGTON LORRIE MdirectorSale1,778 @ $305.92$544K−13.1% of holding−1.0%−3.1%11,759Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

86 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-22Krishnan Ram R.directorAward / grant01,641Form 4
2026-06-17Smith Stacy JdirectorAward / grant1,55329,157Form 4
2026-06-17CAHILL JOHN TdirectorAward / grant6212,364Form 4
2026-06-17CAHILL JOHN TdirectorAward / grant1,5533,917Form 4
2026-06-17Epstein JeffdirectorAward / grant4661,312Form 4
2026-06-17Epstein JeffdirectorAward / grant1,5532,865Form 4
2026-06-17BLASING KARENdirectorAward / grant59011,228Form 4
2026-06-17BLASING KARENdirectorAward / grant1,55312,781Form 4
2026-06-17Irving BlakedirectorAward / grant55911,349Form 4
2026-06-17Irving BlakedirectorAward / grant1,55312,902Form 4
2026-06-17rahim ramidirectorAward / grant4665,115Form 4
2026-06-17rahim ramidirectorAward / grant1,5536,668Form 4
2026-06-17Howard AyannadirectorAward / grant4663,942Form 4
2026-06-17Howard AyannadirectorAward / grant1,5535,495Form 4
2026-06-17Simons Anna CdirectorAward / grant4661,492Form 4
2026-06-17Simons Anna CdirectorAward / grant1,5533,045Form 4
2026-06-17Abbosh OmardirectorAward / grant1,5531,553Form 4
2026-06-17Smith Stacy JdirectorAward / grant1,08727,604Form 4
2026-04-10Moorjani JaneshofficerAward / grant12,42448,493Form 4
2026-04-10Anagnost AndrewdirectorAward / grant52,762200,503Form 4
2026-04-10Pearce RebeccaofficerAward / grant7,45421,263Form 4
2026-04-10Blum Steven MofficerAward / grant12,92124,473Form 4
2026-04-10Keene Ruth AnnofficerAward / grant7,78588,857Form 4
2026-03-24Anagnost AndrewdirectorWithheld for tax21,366147,665Form 4
2026-03-24Anagnost AndrewdirectorWithheld for tax21,201125,940Form 4
2026-03-24Moorjani JaneshofficerWithheld for tax8,79435,979Form 4
2026-03-24Blum Steven MofficerWithheld for tax6,06732,993Form 4
2026-03-24Blum Steven MofficerWithheld for tax5,24011,467Form 4
2026-03-24Keene Ruth AnnofficerWithheld for tax3,85580,978Form 4
2026-03-24Pearce RebeccaofficerWithheld for tax3,7039,608Form 4
2026-03-24Pearce RebeccaofficerWithheld for tax3,64413,715Form 4
2026-03-24Keene Ruth AnnofficerWithheld for tax3,17377,082Form 4
2026-03-24Keene Ruth AnnofficerAward / grant7,75184,833Form 4
2026-03-24Anagnost AndrewdirectorAward / grant43,091169,031Form 4
2026-03-24Blum Steven MofficerAward / grant15,40339,060Form 4
2026-03-24Moorjani JaneshofficerAward / grant18,93244,773Form 4
2026-03-24Pearce RebeccaofficerAward / grant7,75117,359Form 4
2025-12-16Moorjani JaneshofficerWithheld for tax7,76725,841Form 4
2025-12-02Anagnost AndrewdirectorGift26,268147,141Form 4
2025-06-18RAFAEL BETSYdirectorWithheld for tax2923,879Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Angus KingSenatesale2026-03-242026-02-13$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-03-102026-02-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.