Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.67 · now $27.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADPT has typically landed between $20.17 and $37.35 — a range of −27.1% to +35.0% from the issuance price $27.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,794 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADPT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $27.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.94 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.32–$31.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.17–$37.35
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,794 windows spanning 2019-06-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −46.5% | −46.5% | +7.7% |
| 2022-04-11 | −46.1% | −46.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-28 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +10.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-16 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +67.6% |
| 2022-06-06 | +57.8% | −5.9% | +57.8% |
| 2020-03-17 | +56.9% | +0.0% | +57.9% |
1,794 overlapping windows · 2019-06-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
−0.7%
n=7
Feb
43%
−3.4%
n=7
Mar
14%
−10.8%
n=7
Apr
43%
−8.4%
n=7
May
57%
+10.4%
n=7
Jun
86%
+14.5%
n=7
Jul
50%
+0.6%
n=8
Aug
63%
+7.8%
n=8
Sep
50%
−4.4%
n=8
Oct
29%
−3.0%
n=7
Nov
71%
+4.9%
n=7
Dec
71%
+3.2%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | OWEN KATEY EINTERZ | director | Sale | 9,615 @ $26.00 | $250K | −10.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Sale | 278,472 @ $24.48 | $6.8M | −11.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,180,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | HERSHBERG ROBERT | director | Sale | 15,664 @ $24.41 | $382K | −25.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,683 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | HERSHBERG ROBERT | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $24.39 | $366K | −19.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Sale | 204 @ $25.14 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,180,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Sale | 318,799 @ $25.08 | $8.0M | −12.7% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,183,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Sale | 69,690 @ $25.16 | $1.8M | −34.8% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $25.10 | $1.0M | −16.6% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $25.23 | $378K | −5.9% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Sale | 2,525 @ $25.57 | $65K | −0.1% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,180,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | BOBULSKY SUSAN | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $25.00 | $75K | −0.8% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | BOBULSKY SUSAN | officer | Sale | 1,299 @ $24.00 | $31K | −0.3% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 399,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Sale | 278,698 @ $21.72 | $6.1M | −21.4% of holding | +10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,025,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Sale | 213,702 @ $22.12 | $4.7M | −20.8% of holding | +10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 812,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | BOBULSKY SUSAN | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.00 | $115K | −1.2% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 401,288 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Sale | 105,762 @ $22.59 | $2.4M | −31.4% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,713 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Sale | 239,351 @ $21.74 | $5.2M | −17.0% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,166,547 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Sale | 146,889 @ $22.45 | $3.3M | −12.6% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,019,658 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Sale | 44,838 @ $22.59 | $1.0M | −16.3% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,713 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Sale | 42,261 @ $22.50 | $951K | −15.1% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,688 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Sale | 8,743 @ $22.18 | $194K | −3.0% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 279,949 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | BOBULSKY SUSAN | officer | Sale | 487 @ $22.00 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 406,288 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | BENZENO SHARON | officer | Sale | 154,768 @ $21.14 | $3.3M | −41.2% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | BENZENO SHARON | officer | Sale | 11,034 @ $21.00 | $232K | −3.9% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 272,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | GRIFFIN MICHELLE RENEE | director | Sale | 52,084 @ $20.18 | $1.1M | −76.9% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,625 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | BOBULSKY SUSAN | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $20.50 | $103K | −1.2% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 406,775 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Sale | 6,160 @ $18.01 | $111K | −0.4% of holding | +33.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,405,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $17.37 | $1.7M | −6.6% of holding | +26.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,412,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BOBULSKY SUSAN | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.00 | $95K | −1.2% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 411,775 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Sale | 39,741 @ $17.49 | $695K | −13.7% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,934 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | BOBULSKY SUSAN | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $18.00 | $198K | −2.6% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 416,775 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | PISKEL KYLE | officer | Sale | 3,115 @ $13.04 | $41K | −1.2% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 256,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,037 @ $14.23 | $271K | −4.8% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 377,802 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.02 | $267K | −4.8% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 382,132 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-23 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $13.74 | $262K | −4.7% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 386,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.13 | $269K | −4.7% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 390,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 30,941 @ $14.66 | $454K | −7.3% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 395,146 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-20 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.55 | $277K | −4.6% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 399,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.57 | $278K | −4.5% of holding | −16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,822 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.18 | $270K | −4.5% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 408,160 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.61 | $278K | −4.4% of holding | −16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 412,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.56 | $278K | −4.4% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 416,836 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 15,722 @ $12.95 | $204K | −3.6% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 424,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-13 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 3,338 @ $14.08 | $47K | −0.8% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 421,174 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-10 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 18,660 @ $12.75 | $238K | −4.2% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,912 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 400 @ $13.48 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,512 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 16,960 @ $13.79 | $234K | −3.8% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 431,950 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $14.44 | $30K | −0.5% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,850 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Sale | 37,263 @ $15.19 | $566K | −1.7% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,180,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 30,841 @ $14.83 | $457K | −6.6% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 434,288 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Sale | 22,564 @ $15.07 | $340K | −7.7% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $14.85 | $149K | −0.7% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,512,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 100 @ $15.48 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 434,188 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-07 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $13.56 | $258K | −4.2% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 438,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Sale | 83,332 @ $14.41 | $1.2M | −3.6% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,217,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.33 | $273K | −4.1% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 442,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.60 | $278K | −4.1% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 447,202 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $14.45 | $275K | −4.1% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 451,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $13.45 | $256K | −4.0% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 455,878 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-30 | RUBINSTEIN JULIE | officer | Sale | 19,060 @ $12.63 | $241K | −4.0% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 460,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
190 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | OWEN KATEY EINTERZ | director | Gift | 12,539 | 66,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | OWEN KATEY EINTERZ | director | Gift | 12,539 | 66,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | OWEN KATEY EINTERZ | director | Gift | 12,539 | 66,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | OWEN KATEY EINTERZ | director | Gift | 12,539 | 66,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Option exercise | 278,676 | 2,459,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | HERSHBERG ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 77,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | HERSHBERG ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Option exercise | 278,676 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Option exercise | 321,324 | 2,501,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 255,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | ROBINS CHAD M | director | Option exercise | 321,324 | 278,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Option exercise | 284,800 | 1,304,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | ROBINS HARLAN S | officer | Option exercise | 284,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 59,374 | 290,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 23,677 | 313,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 22,711 | 336,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 22,711 | 37,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 23,677 | 132,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 59,374 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,600 | 262,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,637 | 275,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,626 | 250,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,637 | 60,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,600 | 155,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,626 | 59,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 14,064 | 288,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,206 | 269,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 3,300 | 257,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 254,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 4,688 | 274,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 3,300 | 168,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 72,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 12,206 | 72,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 4,688 | 81,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LO FRANCIS | officer | Option exercise | 14,064 | 126,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BENZENO SHARON | officer | Option exercise | 51,570 | 376,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BENZENO SHARON | officer | Option exercise | 24,944 | 299,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BENZENO SHARON | officer | Option exercise | 24,944 | 324,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BENZENO SHARON | officer | Option exercise | 1,837 | 274,588 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.