Issued 2026-09-16 at $273.19 · now $273.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADP has typically landed between $247.13 and $302.72 — a range of −9.5% to +10.8% from the issuance price $273.19.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($273.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $273.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $273.19 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $274.78 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $263.28–$286.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $247.13–$302.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −38.5% | −38.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −37.6% | −37.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −34.8% | −34.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +27.2% | +0.0% | +31.9% |
| 2008-10-29 | +23.4% | −3.5% | +23.4% |
| 2022-07-18 | +23.1% | +0.0% | +23.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$334.17
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$328.91
- Analyst target · range $190.00–$294.00$260.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$273.19
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | DeSilva Joseph | officer | Sale | 631 @ $282.87 | $178K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 10,591 @ $280.82 | $3.0M | −11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 7,724 @ $281.66 | $2.2M | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | DeSilva Joseph | officer | Sale | 6,512 @ $283.00 | $1.8M | −25.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 2,898 @ $279.74 | $811K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,939 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,872 @ $283.00 | $530K | −15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,928 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Foskett David | officer | Sale | 1,529 @ $283.00 | $433K | −9.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 1,483 @ $281.13 | $417K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 101,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 1,193 @ $280.96 | $335K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 103,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 1,018 @ $281.60 | $287K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 105,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 1,018 @ $280.60 | $286K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 104,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 786 @ $280.27 | $220K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 106,549 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 760 @ $281.70 | $214K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 107,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 700 @ $278.59 | $195K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 108,095 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 610 @ $281.86 | $172K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 108,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 559 @ $279.93 | $156K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,405 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 256 @ $279.44 | $72K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 214 @ $279.21 | $60K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,220 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Michaud Brian L. | officer | Sale | 120 @ $279.70 | $34K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,442 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Kwon David | officer | Sale | 798 @ $280.00 | $223K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,193 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Kwon David | officer | Sale | 1,053 @ $265.62 | $280K | −9.8% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Kwon David | officer | Sale | 887 @ $265.62 | $236K | −7.6% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Kwon David | officer | Sale | 474 @ $265.62 | $126K | −3.9% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Michaud Brian L. | officer | Sale | 848 @ $212.13 | $180K | −5.5% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,462 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | SWAN ROBERT HOLMES | director | Purchase | 3,619 @ $206.05 | $746K | +249.1% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,072 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Sale | 543 @ $195.74 | $106K | −6.1% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Sale | 543 @ $208.45 | $113K | −5.7% of holding | −10.7% | +19.4% | 8,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Sale | 543 @ $212.43 | $115K | −5.4% of holding | +1.7% | +15.4% | 9,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Michaud Brian L. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $234.18 | $234K | −6.1% of holding | −4.1% | +7.7% | 15,310 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Foskett David | officer | Sale | 266 @ $237.00 | $63K | −2.4% of holding | −4.8% | +3.1% | 10,954 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Sale | 543 @ $262.29 | $142K | −5.2% of holding | −16.5% | −7.4% | 9,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Kwon David | officer | Sale | 806 @ $264.80 | $213K | −6.7% of holding | −16.7% | −13.5% | 11,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Kwon David | officer | Sale | 900 @ $260.00 | $234K | −7.0% of holding | −8.3% | −15.4% | 11,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 294 @ $258.09 | $76K | −0.4% of holding | −8.6% | −13.7% | 75,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 145 @ $257.24 | $37K | −0.2% of holding | −8.6% | −13.7% | 75,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 98 @ $258.77 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | −8.6% | −13.7% | 75,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 71 @ $254.95 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | −8.6% | −13.7% | 75,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 56 @ $255.73 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −8.6% | −13.7% | 75,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Black Maria | director | Sale | 51 @ $253.32 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | −8.6% | −13.7% | 75,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 855 @ $293.76 | $251K | −3.9% of holding | −4.3% | −30.1% | 21,275 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 230 @ $292.81 | $67K | −1.0% of holding | −4.3% | −30.1% | 22,130 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 129 @ $296.13 | $38K | −0.6% of holding | −4.3% | −30.1% | 22,360 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 52 @ $294.41 | $15K | −0.2% of holding | −4.3% | −30.1% | 22,489 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 7 @ $296.94 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −4.3% | −30.1% | 22,541 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 802 @ $294.80 | $236K | −3.4% of holding | −3.4% | −29.9% | 22,548 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 623 @ $297.98 | $186K | −2.6% of holding | −3.4% | −29.9% | 23,350 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 591 @ $295.82 | $175K | −2.4% of holding | −3.4% | −29.9% | 23,973 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 337 @ $296.92 | $100K | −1.4% of holding | −3.4% | −29.9% | 24,564 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 202 @ $293.04 | $59K | −0.8% of holding | −3.4% | −29.9% | 24,901 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 186 @ $293.93 | $55K | −0.7% of holding | −3.4% | −29.9% | 25,103 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 72 @ $298.57 | $21K | −0.3% of holding | −3.4% | −29.9% | 25,289 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 8,297 @ $293.08 | $2.4M | −24.7% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 25,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 5,363 @ $292.12 | $1.6M | −13.7% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 33,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 3,311 @ $290.98 | $963K | −7.8% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 39,021 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 2,192 @ $293.78 | $644K | −4.9% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 42,332 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 1,607 @ $296.19 | $476K | −3.5% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 44,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 800 @ $294.96 | $236K | −1.7% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 46,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Sale | 597 @ $296.90 | $177K | −5.4% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 10,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 380 @ $296.84 | $113K | −0.8% of holding | −4.9% | −30.9% | 46,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Sale | 15,545 @ $296.95 | $4.6M | −38.0% of holding | −5.5% | −32.1% | 25,361 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
169 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Sugla Vishwas | officer | Award / grant | 2,827 | 2,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Sugla Vishwas | officer | Award / grant | 2,073 | 4,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Black Maria | director | Withheld for tax | 31,215 | 110,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Rodriguez Carlos A | director | Withheld for tax | 13,472 | 34,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bonarti Michael A | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,727 | 89,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DeSilva Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,482 | 25,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | KUTAM SREENIVASA | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,329 | 49,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Boland Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,134 | 12,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Magliulo Virginia | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,709 | 17,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Michaud Brian L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,281 | 18,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Foskett David | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,980 | 15,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kwon David | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,969 | 12,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,736 | 11,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hadley Peter J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,651 | 17,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lehberger Jonathan S | officer | Withheld for tax | 406 | 5,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Orihuela Samantha D | officer | Withheld for tax | 154 | 296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hadley Peter J | officer | Award / grant | 6,464 | 18,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Magliulo Virginia | officer | Award / grant | 2,858 | 20,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lehberger Jonathan S | officer | Award / grant | 903 | 6,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | KUTAM SREENIVASA | officer | Award / grant | 5,259 | 57,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Black Maria | director | Award / grant | 21,689 | 141,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bonarti Michael A | officer | Award / grant | 5,076 | 97,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 2,565 | 13,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DeSilva Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 5,089 | 33,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Orihuela Samantha D | officer | Award / grant | 1,163 | 6,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Michaud Brian L. | officer | Award / grant | 2,683 | 21,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Foskett David | officer | Award / grant | 4,006 | 17,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Boland Paul | officer | Award / grant | 3,634 | 15,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kwon David | officer | Award / grant | 1,763 | 14,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Kwon David | officer | Option exercise | 967 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Kwon David | officer | Option exercise | 967 | 13,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Magliulo Virginia | officer | Award / grant | 4,050 | 17,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Black Maria | director | Award / grant | 44,859 | 119,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Boland Paul | officer | Award / grant | 4,672 | 11,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Bonarti Michael A | officer | Award / grant | 11,573 | 91,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 2,601 | 10,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | DeSilva Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 10,903 | 28,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Foskett David | officer | Award / grant | 2,647 | 13,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Hadley Peter J | officer | Award / grant | 1,479 | 12,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | KUTAM SREENIVASA | officer | Award / grant | 11,083 | 51,769 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.