ADNTAdient plcConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.23 · now $18.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADNT has typically landed between $14.84 and $22.21 — a range of −18.6% to +21.8% from the issuance price $18.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,471 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-10-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ADNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$14.84worst · -18.6%$22.21best · +21.8%
  • now $18.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.81 (-2.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.43–$19.18
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.84–$22.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,471 windows spanning 2016-10-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−76.6%−76.6%+1.4%
2020-02-20−69.5%−76.9%+0.0%
2020-02-19−69.3%−76.5%+1.8%
3 best
2020-04-03+107.2%+0.0%+115.1%
2019-03-20+98.5%−3.7%+98.5%
2019-03-22+96.8%+0.0%+106.1%

2,471 overlapping windows · 2016-10-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+5.8%
n=10
Feb
40%
+1.5%
n=10
Mar
20%
−12.3%
n=10
Apr
60%
+12.0%
n=10
May
50%
−0.2%
n=10
Jun
30%
+0.5%
n=10
Jul
70%
+4.4%
n=10
Aug
30%
−3.5%
n=10
Sep
30%
−0.1%
n=10
Oct
44%
−0.7%
n=9
Nov
50%
+3.0%
n=10
Dec
50%
−1.5%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$27$182026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $151K — Carlin Peter2026-06-04: 2 insider sales, $515K — Tiltmann Heather M, Herberg David2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $49K — Berthelin Michel Pierre Rose2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $273K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $49K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $515K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $151K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Carlin Peter — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Tiltmann Heather M — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Herberg David — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Berthelin Michel Pierre Rose — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Carlin PeterdirectorSale7,843 @ $19.25$151K−16.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open38,835Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-04Tiltmann Heather MofficerSale22,000 @ $22.71$500K−16.6% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open110,886Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-04Herberg DavidofficerSale699 @ $22.58$16K−1.7% of holding−14.9%not yet — horizon still open40,122Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-26Berthelin Michel Pierre RoseofficerSale2,500 @ $19.71$49K−2.1% of holding−2.7%+3.6%116,425Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-07Dorlack Jerome J.directorSale12,000 @ $22.77$273K−2.6% of holding+5.2%+6.5%441,025Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04Conklin JamesofficerSale11,500 @ $20.25$233K−18.2% of holding−12.2%−18.3%51,829Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Marianos Stephanie SofficerWithheld for tax32772,894Form 4
2026-05-07Conklin JamesofficerAward / grant22,872119,429Form 4
2026-05-06Herberg DavidofficerWithheld for tax63440,821Form 4
2026-03-10Bushman Julie LdirectorAward / grant8,20859,666Form 4
2026-03-10SAMARDZICH BARB JdirectorAward / grant8,20858,596Form 4
2026-03-10GUTIERREZ JOSE MdirectorAward / grant8,20855,349Form 4
2026-03-10Eddy Jodi EuerledirectorAward / grant8,20824,551Form 4
2026-03-10Henderson Frederick A.directorAward / grant12,429104,614Form 4
2026-03-10Eddy Jodi EuerledirectorAward / grant8,20824,551Form 4
2026-03-10Carlin PeterdirectorAward / grant8,20846,678Form 4
2026-03-10GUTIERREZ JOSE MdirectorAward / grant8,20855,349Form 4
2026-03-10Goodman RicharddirectorAward / grant8,20858,985Form 4
2026-03-10SAMARDZICH BARB JdirectorAward / grant8,20858,596Form 4
2026-03-10Henderson Frederick A.directorAward / grant12,429104,614Form 4
2026-03-10Goodman RicharddirectorAward / grant8,20858,985Form 4
2026-03-10Carlin PeterdirectorAward / grant8,20846,678Form 4
2026-03-10Bushman Julie LdirectorAward / grant8,20859,666Form 4
2026-02-08Dorlack Jerome J.directorWithheld for tax5,896630,286Form 4
2026-02-08OSWALD MARK AofficerWithheld for tax1,348124,463Form 4
2026-02-05Huang Jian JamesofficerAward / grant29,75029,750Form 4
2026-02-05Herberg DavidofficerAward / grant24,18641,455Form 4
2026-02-05Herberg DavidofficerAward / grant24,18641,455Form 4
2026-01-01Dorlack Jerome J.directorWithheld for tax5,234636,182Form 4
2026-01-01Dorlack Jerome J.directorAward / grant14,866641,416Form 4
2025-11-17Huang Jian JamesofficerDisposition3,6670Form 4
2025-11-17Dorlack Jerome J.directorWithheld for tax3,081626,550Form 4
2025-11-17Tiltmann Heather MofficerWithheld for tax2,481132,886Form 4
2025-11-17Berthelin Michel Pierre RoseofficerWithheld for tax2,235118,925Form 4
2025-11-17Conklin JamesofficerWithheld for tax1,69496,557Form 4
2025-11-17OSWALD MARK AofficerWithheld for tax580125,811Form 4
2025-11-17Marianos Stephanie SofficerWithheld for tax41973,221Form 4
2025-11-17Smith Gregory ScottofficerWithheld for tax38530,842Form 4
2025-11-17Huang Jian JamesofficerOption exercise3,6670Form 4
2025-11-17Huang Jian JamesofficerOption exercise3,6673,667Form 4
2025-11-16Huang Jian JamesofficerDisposition6,4330Form 4
2025-11-16Dorlack Jerome J.directorWithheld for tax3,506629,631Form 4
2025-11-16Berthelin Michel Pierre RoseofficerWithheld for tax3,056121,160Form 4
2025-11-16Tiltmann Heather MofficerWithheld for tax2,966135,367Form 4
2025-11-16Conklin JamesofficerWithheld for tax2,80598,251Form 4
2025-11-16Smith Gregory ScottofficerWithheld for tax50131,227Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.