Issued 2026-09-25 at $9.38 · now $9.38 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ADMA has typically landed between $7.80 and $12.11 — a range of −16.8% to +29.2% from the issuance price $9.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,233 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-17 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($9.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADMA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $9.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.7 (+3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.68–$10.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.8–$12.11
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −59.6% | −59.6% | +5.9% |
| 2018-11-27 | −58.6% | −59.7% | +0.4% |
| 2018-11-23 | −57.9% | −57.9% | +4.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-02-26 | +89.9% | +0.0% | +89.9% |
| 2020-03-18 | +79.3% | +0.0% | +112.0% |
| 2016-02-25 | +76.1% | −5.5% | +76.1% |
3,233 overlapping windows · 2013-10-17 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Grossman Jerrold B | director | Purchase | 6,400 @ $7.91 | $51K | +1.2% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 520,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Grossman Jerrold B | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $8.01 | $100K | +2.5% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 513,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Grossman Jerrold B | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $8.01 | $100K | +2.6% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 501,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.16 | $227K | −0.7% of holding | −37.7% | −59.2% | 2,118,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $15.16 | $91K | −0.3% of holding | −37.7% | −59.2% | 2,112,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Sale | 10,096 @ $15.63 | $158K | −2.1% of holding | −37.8% | −53.2% | 466,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | ELMS STEVE | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $15.39 | $108K | +0.3% of holding | −38.1% | −52.6% | 2,045,730 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | ELMS STEVE | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $15.67 | $110K | +0.3% of holding | −37.9% | −53.1% | 2,038,730 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.08 | $241K | −0.7% of holding | −3.6% | −53.2% | 2,290,379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $16.08 | $96K | −0.3% of holding | −3.6% | −53.2% | 2,284,379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $19.79 | $297K | −0.7% of holding | −13.3% | −66.8% | 2,013,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $19.79 | $119K | −0.3% of holding | −13.3% | −66.8% | 2,007,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.00 | $240K | −0.7% of holding | +19.7% | −61.5% | 2,019,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $16.00 | $96K | −0.3% of holding | +19.7% | −61.5% | 2,013,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.00 | $240K | −0.7% of holding | +21.9% | −33.9% | 2,025,850 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-24 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $16.00 | $96K | −0.3% of holding | +21.9% | −33.9% | 2,019,850 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.13 | $242K | −0.7% of holding | −2.8% | +3.5% | 2,031,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $16.13 | $97K | −0.3% of holding | −2.8% | +3.5% | 2,025,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.88 | $253K | −0.7% of holding | −10.2% | −12.9% | 2,037,850 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $16.88 | $101K | −0.3% of holding | −10.2% | −12.9% | 2,031,850 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.66 | $280K | −0.7% of holding | −8.0% | −13.7% | 2,043,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $18.66 | $112K | −0.3% of holding | −8.0% | −13.7% | 2,037,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 194,749 @ $20.24 | $3.9M | −69.0% of holding | −18.3% | −16.9% | 87,330 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $20.81 | $312K | −0.7% of holding | −18.3% | −16.9% | 2,049,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $20.81 | $125K | −0.3% of holding | −18.3% | −16.9% | 2,043,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 137,931 @ $20.82 | $2.9M | −32.8% of holding | −19.9% | −19.8% | 282,079 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 92,941 @ $21.69 | $2.0M | −4.4% of holding | −20.1% | −20.5% | 2,031,730 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $20.96 | $419K | −17.4% of holding | −16.2% | −21.7% | 94,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Grossman Jerrold B | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $21.31 | $213K | −2.0% of holding | −16.2% | −21.7% | 478,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Sale | 1,221 @ $20.12 | $25K | −1.1% of holding | −15.8% | −31.4% | 114,830 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Sale | 7,779 @ $20.32 | $158K | −6.3% of holding | −14.5% | −35.1% | 114,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $19.45 | $292K | −0.7% of holding | +4.2% | −32.7% | 2,055,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $19.45 | $117K | −0.3% of holding | +4.2% | −32.7% | 2,049,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $21.46 | $322K | −0.7% of holding | −23.1% | −56.3% | 2,061,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $21.46 | $129K | −0.3% of holding | −23.1% | −56.3% | 2,055,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.92 | $284K | −0.7% of holding | +10.3% | −39.1% | 2,067,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $18.92 | $114K | −0.3% of holding | +10.3% | −39.1% | 2,061,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 48,967 @ $21.10 | $1.0M | −2.4% of holding | −19.1% | −6.4% | 1,989,007 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-22 | Tade Brad L. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $21.15 | $317K | −7.0% of holding | −19.1% | −6.4% | 199,433 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-09 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $18.47 | $166K | −5.5% of holding | +7.5% | −2.3% | 153,941 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-30 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Sale | 24,150 @ $16.90 | $408K | −5.1% of holding | +13.0% | −2.0% | 449,088 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-29 | Grossman Jerrold B | director | Sale | 136,861 @ $17.27 | $2.4M | −22.7% of holding | +13.0% | −5.2% | 467,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-27 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 389,356 @ $17.29 | $6.7M | −15.9% of holding | +9.8% | −12.0% | 2,059,726 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-08-26 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 236,889 @ $17.69 | $4.2M | −10.3% of holding | +9.7% | −16.6% | 2,059,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-23 | KWON YOUNG | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $18.26 | $1.1M | −19.9% of holding | +2.9% | −20.7% | 241,441 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-14 | Grossman Adam S | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $10.72 | $1.1M | −4.6% of holding | +22.1% | +62.9% | 2,081,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-19 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 411,829 @ $6.08 | $2.5M | −16.3% of holding | +3.3% | +202.9% | 2,115,671 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-18 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 49,887 @ $6.01 | $300K | −1.9% of holding | +4.1% | +204.8% | 2,527,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-15 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 183,008 @ $6.01 | $1.1M | −6.6% of holding | +4.1% | +193.1% | 2,577,387 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-03-14 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 448,276 @ $6.05 | $2.7M | −14.0% of holding | +1.1% | +190.7% | 2,760,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-13 | ELMS STEVE | director | Sale | 407,000 @ $6.21 | $2.5M | −11.3% of holding | −3.1% | +172.9% | 3,208,671 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
199 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,177 | 443,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Kohler Terry | officer | Award / grant | 136,363 | 136,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Kohler Terry | officer | Award / grant | 85,130 | 143,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,362 | 446,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Gift | 30,000 | 105,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Gift | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Grossman Adam S | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 2,133,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Grossman Adam S | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 690,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 135,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 23,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 469,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,646 | 472,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 1,250 | 470,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 1,525 | 474,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,175 | 476,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,646 | 2,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 1,250 | 1,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 1,525 | 2,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,175 | 2,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Other acquisition | 91,266 | 466,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Grossman Adam S | director | Withheld for tax | 29,513 | 2,118,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,235 | 557,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Grossman Adam S | director | Withheld for tax | 56,438 | 2,148,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,059 | 562,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Grossman Adam S | director | Withheld for tax | 54,858 | 2,204,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Grossman Adam S | director | Withheld for tax | 24,793 | 2,259,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Kestenberg-Messina Kaitlin M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,161 | 572,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Tade Brad L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,479 | 232,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Grossman Adam S | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 2,305,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Grossman Adam S | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 705,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Award / grant | 10,690 | 105,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Guiheen Lawrence P. | director | Award / grant | 17,730 | 17,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Salas Eduardo Rene | director | Award / grant | 10,690 | 21,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Salas Eduardo Rene | director | Award / grant | 17,730 | 17,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | FINGER ALISON CECILY | director | Award / grant | 10,690 | 45,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | FINGER ALISON CECILY | director | Award / grant | 17,730 | 17,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | KWON YOUNG | director | Award / grant | 10,690 | 263,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | KWON YOUNG | director | Award / grant | 17,730 | 17,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Grossman Adam S | director | Award / grant | 282,529 | 2,290,379 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.