ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland CompanyConsumer Defensive · Agricultural Farm Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $85.00 · now $85.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADM has typically landed between $76.60 and $96.43 — a range of −9.9% to +13.5% from the issuance price $85.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($85.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ADM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $85 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$76.6worst · -9.9%$96.43best · +13.5%
  • now $85 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $85.33 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $80.73–$89.93
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.6–$96.43
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−33.2%−33.2%+0.0%
2008-09-11−31.7%−32.4%+6.1%
2020-02-11−31.1%−31.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-10-15+57.1%+0.0%+57.1%
2008-10-24+53.1%+0.0%+53.1%
2008-10-10+52.5%+0.0%+57.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$41.4B
market cap
$2.23
EPS (TTM)
38.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$80.3B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr1.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.37
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $85.00$51.27$98.24
  • DCF (intrinsic)$60.98
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$54.51
  • Analyst target · range $60.00–$95.00$74.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$85.00

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
53%
+1.8%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.2%
n=19
May
58%
−0.0%
n=19
Jun
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Jul
79%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.7%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$87$552026-03-13: 2 insider sales, $5.0M — Cuddy Christopher M, Pinner Ian R2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — Morris Gregory A2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Weber Jennifer L2026-02-05: 1 insider purchase, $487K — McAtee David R II2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $487K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $8.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Cuddy Christopher M — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Pinner Ian R — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Morris Gregory A — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Weber Jennifer L — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McAtee David R II — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-13Cuddy Christopher MofficerSale35,000 @ $73.50$2.6M−9.6% of holding−9.5%+5.4%331,052Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13Pinner Ian RofficerSale34,106 @ $71.53$2.4M−27.3% of holding−9.5%+5.4%90,676Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-10Morris Gregory AofficerSale50,000 @ $68.48$3.4M−14.3% of holding+0.7%+12.4%300,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Weber Jennifer LofficerSale25,000 @ $67.04$1.7M−16.8% of holding+6.5%+7.3%123,668Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05McAtee David R IIdirectorPurchase7,500 @ $64.90$487Kownership Δ n/a+4.5%+4.0%7,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

283 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09de Brabander EllendirectorAward / grant6711,083Form 4
2026-09-09CREWS TERRELL KdirectorAward / grant41268,524Form 4
2026-09-09Collins James C. Jr.directorAward / grant7913,155Form 4
2026-09-09COLBERT THEODORE IIIdirectorAward / grant11118,459Form 4
2026-09-09Burke Michael SdirectorAward / grant12120,144Form 4
2026-09-09McMurray Michael C.directorAward / grant5903Form 4
2026-09-09McAtee David R IIdirectorAward / grant366,064Form 4
2026-09-09Harrison Suzan F.directorAward / grant12020,006Form 4
2026-09-09WESTBROOK KELVIN RdirectorAward / grant21535,656Form 4
2026-09-09Schlitz Lei ZhangdirectorAward / grant11018,201Form 4
2026-09-09Sandler Debra A.directorAward / grant18430,541Form 4
2026-09-09MOORE PATRICK JdirectorAward / grant616102,375Form 4
2026-09-08Jones ReginaofficerWithheld for tax1,70687,022Form 4
2026-08-17Rowe Jeffrey DofficerAward / grant259,935259,935Form 4
2026-08-03Patolawala Monish DdirectorWithheld for tax6,720218,253Form 4
2026-07-01Sandler Debra A.directorAward / grant76630,357Form 4
2026-07-01Collins James C. Jr.directorAward / grant76613,076Form 4
2026-07-01Schlitz Lei ZhangdirectorAward / grant71618,092Form 4
2026-07-01McMurray Michael C.directorAward / grant716897Form 4
2026-07-01McAtee David R IIdirectorAward / grant7166,028Form 4
2026-07-01Harrison Suzan F.directorAward / grant79719,886Form 4
2026-07-01de Brabander EllendirectorAward / grant71611,016Form 4
2026-07-01CREWS TERRELL KdirectorAward / grant87868,111Form 4
2026-07-01COLBERT THEODORE IIIdirectorAward / grant71618,348Form 4
2026-07-01Burke Michael SdirectorAward / grant82920,023Form 4
2026-07-01WESTBROOK KELVIN RdirectorAward / grant74735,442Form 4
2026-07-01MOORE PATRICK JdirectorAward / grant747101,759Form 4
2026-06-10Harrison Suzan F.directorAward / grant12119,089Form 4
2026-06-10Collins James C. Jr.directorAward / grant7812,310Form 4
2026-06-10CREWS TERRELL KdirectorAward / grant42767,233Form 4
2026-06-10Burke Michael SdirectorAward / grant12219,194Form 4
2026-06-10de Brabander EllendirectorAward / grant6510,301Form 4
2026-06-10McAtee David R IIdirectorAward / grant345,312Form 4
2026-06-10MOORE PATRICK JdirectorAward / grant642101,012Form 4
2026-06-10Sandler Debra A.directorAward / grant18829,591Form 4
2026-06-10McMurray Michael C.directorAward / grant1182Form 4
2026-06-10Schlitz Lei ZhangdirectorAward / grant11017,376Form 4
2026-06-10WESTBROOK KELVIN RdirectorAward / grant22034,695Form 4
2026-06-10COLBERT THEODORE IIIdirectorAward / grant11217,633Form 4
2026-04-01Sandler Debra A.directorAward / grant70729,403Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-20$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2025-05-152025-04-15$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-11-082024-10-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.