Issued 2026-09-25 at $393.60 · now $393.60 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ADI has typically landed between $351.47 and $457.60 — a range of −10.7% to +16.3% from the issuance price $393.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($393.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $393.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $393.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $396.1 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $375.44–$416.77
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $351.47–$457.6
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −31.3% | −33.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −30.3% | −30.3% | +5.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −30.3% | −32.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-16 | +29.1% | −0.5% | +29.1% |
| 2026-03-30 | +28.4% | +0.0% | +33.3% |
| 2025-04-21 | +28.3% | +0.0% | +29.8% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$192.29
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$230.20
- Analyst target · range $360.00–$550.00$450.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$393.60
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Puccio Richard C Jr | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $382.19 | $573K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,177 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 461 @ $363.90 | $168K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,691 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 369 @ $362.94 | $134K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,152 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 356 @ $364.90 | $130K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 158 @ $361.93 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 72 @ $365.97 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Puccio Richard C Jr | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $363.65 | $545K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 462 @ $362.20 | $167K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,269 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 364 @ $361.26 | $131K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 222 @ $363.38 | $81K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 200 @ $364.37 | $73K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,847 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 156 @ $365.51 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 12 @ $366.05 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 111,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $356.33 | $3.6M | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 134,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Golz Karen | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $374.50 | $375K | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Puccio Richard C Jr | officer | Sale | 2,683 @ $374.56 | $1.0M | −4.7% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,177 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 373 @ $378.62 | $141K | −0.3% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,554 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 271 @ $377.62 | $102K | −0.2% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 237 @ $376.58 | $89K | −0.2% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,198 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 229 @ $379.62 | $87K | −0.2% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 116 @ $380.71 | $44K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 86 @ $381.97 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 76 @ $375.63 | $29K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 28 @ $383.44 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,095 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 248 @ $380.74 | $94K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 244 @ $377.55 | $92K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 240 @ $376.59 | $90K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 178 @ $374.35 | $67K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 134 @ $378.69 | $51K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 100 @ $381.80 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,511 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 84 @ $375.44 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 76 @ $372.90 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 52 @ $379.89 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 37 @ $370.95 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 23 @ $370.17 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $363.00 | $3.6M | −6.8% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Golz Karen | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $389.83 | $390K | −8.3% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 339 @ $385.67 | $131K | −0.3% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,379 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 217 @ $386.67 | $84K | −0.2% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 197 @ $387.61 | $76K | −0.2% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,965 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 174 @ $381.44 | $66K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 152 @ $383.45 | $58K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 108 @ $384.50 | $42K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 108 @ $382.50 | $41K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,978 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 44 @ $380.19 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 38 @ $388.73 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 24 @ $378.76 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,304 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 15 @ $378.01 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 282 @ $378.14 | $107K | −0.2% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 230 @ $376.06 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 199 @ $374.05 | $74K | −0.2% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 184 @ $379.60 | $70K | −0.2% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 144 @ $375.17 | $54K | −0.1% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 138 @ $380.36 | $52K | −0.1% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 139 @ $377.16 | $52K | −0.1% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 62 @ $373.09 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,685 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 26 @ $381.11 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | STATA RAY | director | Sale | 12 @ $371.48 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $389.75 | $3.9M | −6.8% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,538 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Golz Karen | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $411.95 | $412K | −7.7% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,019 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Gift | 19,200 | 115,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 144,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 60,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Withheld for tax | 2,878 | 134,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Jain Vivek | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,111 | 47,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Puccio Richard C Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,108 | 56,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cotter Martin | officer | Withheld for tax | 705 | 55,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sondel Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 237 | 15,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Nakamura Katsufumi | officer | Withheld for tax | 202 | 16,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 70,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 147,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 147,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 80,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Cotter Martin | officer | Option exercise | 17,594 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Cotter Martin | officer | Option exercise | 17,594 | 73,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 90,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 147,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 167,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 430,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 167,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 14,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 197,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Jain Vivek | officer | Award / grant | 6,734 | 48,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Puccio Richard C Jr | officer | Award / grant | 6,513 | 57,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Sondel Michael | officer | Award / grant | 1,341 | 15,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Cotter Martin | officer | Award / grant | 5,807 | 56,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Award / grant | 19,712 | 187,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Nakamura Katsufumi | officer | Award / grant | 4,085 | 16,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 177,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 24,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Withheld for tax | 27,027 | 167,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Jain Vivek | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,386 | 42,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Cotter Martin | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,881 | 50,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Sondel Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 406 | 14,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Nakamura Katsufumi | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 12,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Sondel Michael | officer | Award / grant | 958 | 14,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Jain Vivek | officer | Award / grant | 12,576 | 48,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Cotter Martin | officer | Award / grant | 8,026 | 54,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | ROCHE VINCENT | director | Award / grant | 55,899 | 194,853 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-05-22 | 2026-04-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2026-03-04 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.