ADCT · TickerCove

ADCTADC Therapeutics S.A.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.05 · now $1.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADCT has typically landed between $0.68 and $1.55 — a range of −34.9% to +47.7% from the issuance price $1.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,559 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-05-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.05 · 2% of range

$0.9601 low$4.88 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−5.8%

typical move · IQR 27.3%

−34.9%worst (p90)+47.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 1 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ADCT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.05 (+0.0%)
typical $0.9888 (-5.8%)
middle 50% $0.8453–$1.13
90% range $0.6839–$1.55

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,559 windows spanning 2020-05-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-05-07	−73.9%	−73.9%	+0.0%
2026-05-06	−73.3%	−73.3%	+0.0%
2026-05-26	−70.4%	−72.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2023-11-13	+236.0%	+0.0%	+236.0%
2023-11-14	+224.9%	+0.0%	+224.9%
2024-01-18	+189.1%	−0.5%	+189.1%

1,559 overlapping windows · 2020-05-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+12.6%

n=6

Feb

67%

+7.0%

n=6

Mar

−16.9%

n=6

Apr

50%

−3.2%

n=6

May

33%

+8.5%

n=6

Jun

43%

−6.1%

n=7

Jul

43%

−4.0%

n=7

Aug

29%

−0.1%

n=7

Sep

29%

−8.3%

n=7

Oct

33%

−5.9%

n=6

Nov

33%

−1.7%

n=6

Dec

33%

+7.6%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-02	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Sale	2,634,506 @ $3.28	$8.6M	−17.2% of holding	−12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	12,666,731	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-02	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Sale	2,529,491 @ $3.28	$8.3M	−19.8% of holding	−12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	10,265,297	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Sale	169,265 @ $3.80	$643K	−1.1% of holding	−9.2%	not yet — horizon still open	15,301,237	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Sale	162,517 @ $3.80	$617K	−1.3% of holding	−9.2%	not yet — horizon still open	12,794,788	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Sale	196,229 @ $3.75	$736K	−1.3% of holding	−9.7%	not yet — horizon still open	15,470,502	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-31	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Sale	188,407 @ $3.75	$707K	−1.4% of holding	−9.7%	not yet — horizon still open	12,957,305	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Purchase	3,846,153 @ $3.90	$15.0M	ownership Δ n/a	+3.8%	−16.3%	3,846,153	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Purchase	15,734,267 @ $3.43	$54.0M	ownership Δ n/a	−9.3%	−1.4%	15,734,267	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Purchase	12,465,234 @ $3.43	$42.8M	ownership Δ n/a	−9.3%	−1.4%	12,465,234	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $3.81	$191K	+0.4% of holding	−19.1%	+52.4%	13,145,712	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $3.81	$191K	+0.3% of holding	−19.1%	+52.4%	15,666,731	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $2.28	$114K	+0.4% of holding	−19.1%	+52.4%	13,095,712	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $2.28	$114K	+0.3% of holding	−19.1%	+52.4%	15,616,731	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-04	Redmile Group, LLC	director	Sale	25,352 @ $2.07	$52K	−0.2% of holding	−4.6%	+73.1%	15,566,731	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	GRAHAM PETER J	officer	Award / grant	221,100	841,640	Form 4
2026-06-30	Zaki Mohamed	officer	Award / grant	213,900	896,317	Form 4
2026-06-30	MALLIK AMEET	director	Award / grant	675,000	2,121,769	Form 4
2026-06-30	Carmona Jose	officer	Award / grant	203,700	938,076	Form 4
2026-06-03	Squarer Ron	director	Withheld for tax	15,196	123,431	Form 4
2026-06-03	Sandor Victor	director	Withheld for tax	12,600	140,686	Form 4
2026-06-03	Azelby Robert	director	Withheld for tax	12,600	112,805	Form 4
2026-06-03	Coughlin Timothy	director	Withheld for tax	12,600	72,400	Form 4
2026-06-03	BIZZARI JEAN-PIERRE	director	Withheld for tax	12,600	139,302	Form 4
2026-06-03	Monges Viviane	director	Withheld for tax	2,596	186,447	Form 4
2026-06-03	Hug Peter	director	Withheld for tax	2,156	263,344	Form 4
2026-06-01	Sandor Victor	director	Award / grant	45,000	153,286	Form 4
2026-06-01	Hug Peter	director	Award / grant	45,000	265,500	Form 4
2026-06-01	Squarer Ron	director	Award / grant	45,000	138,627	Form 4
2026-06-01	BIZZARI JEAN-PIERRE	director	Award / grant	45,000	151,902	Form 4
2026-06-01	Azelby Robert	director	Award / grant	45,000	125,405	Form 4
2026-06-01	Coughlin Timothy	director	Award / grant	45,000	85,000	Form 4
2026-06-01	Monges Viviane	director	Award / grant	45,000	189,043	Form 4
2026-02-13	MALLIK AMEET	director	Award / grant	900,000	1,550,000	Form 4
2026-02-13	GRAHAM PETER J	officer	Award / grant	294,800	653,834	Form 4
2026-02-13	Zaki Mohamed	officer	Award / grant	285,200	707,020	Form 4
2026-02-13	Carmona Jose	officer	Award / grant	271,600	760,256	Form 4
2026-02-13	MALLIK AMEET	director	Withheld for tax	103,231	1,446,769	Form 4
2026-02-13	Kallebo Lisa Michelle	officer	Award / grant	62,900	133,657	Form 4
2026-02-13	GRAHAM PETER J	officer	Withheld for tax	33,294	620,540	Form 4
2026-02-13	Carmona Jose	officer	Withheld for tax	25,880	734,376	Form 4
2026-02-13	Zaki Mohamed	officer	Withheld for tax	24,603	682,417	Form 4
2026-02-13	Kallebo Lisa Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	5,433	128,224	Form 4
2025-12-06	MALLIK AMEET	director	Withheld for tax	233,146	1,319,101	Form 4
2025-12-06	Carmona Jose	officer	Withheld for tax	53,236	488,656	Form 4
2025-12-06	GRAHAM PETER J	officer	Withheld for tax	49,508	359,034	Form 4
2025-12-06	Zaki Mohamed	officer	Withheld for tax	41,068	421,820	Form 4
2025-12-06	Kallebo Lisa Michelle	officer	Withheld for tax	7,140	70,757	Form 4
2025-06-13	Squarer Ron	director	Withheld for tax	15,184	93,627	Form 4
2025-06-13	BIZZARI JEAN-PIERRE	director	Withheld for tax	12,600	106,902	Form 4
2025-06-13	Sandor Victor	director	Withheld for tax	12,600	108,286	Form 4
2025-06-13	Azelby Robert	director	Withheld for tax	12,600	80,405	Form 4
2025-06-13	Monges Viviane	director	Withheld for tax	2,584	144,043	Form 4
2025-06-13	Hug Peter	director	Withheld for tax	2,144	220,500	Form 4
2025-06-03	Squarer Ron	director	Award / grant	40,000	108,811	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Ashley B. Moody	Senate	sale	2025-03-22	2025-02-20	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i