ADCAgree Realty CorporationReal Estate · REIT - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.50 · now $68.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADC has typically landed between $63.08 and $74.22 — a range of −7.9% to +8.4% from the issuance price $68.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ADC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$63.08worst · -7.9%$74.22best · +8.4%
  • now $68.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $68.92 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $66.57–$71.27
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $63.08–$74.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-20−50.6%−50.6%+0.0%
2008-10-30−49.8%−50.9%+4.9%
2008-10-22−49.2%−49.2%+8.5%
3 best
2008-12-01+93.3%+0.0%+103.2%
2009-03-05+84.5%+0.0%+84.5%
2008-11-20+81.0%+0.0%+83.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Feb
40%
−0.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.6%
n=20
Apr
65%
+1.1%
n=20
May
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
75%
+4.6%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.4%
n=20
Oct
70%
+1.9%
n=20
Nov
65%
−0.4%
n=20
Dec
70%
+2.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$81$682026-08-31: 1 insider purchase, $724K — RAKOLTA JOHN JR2026-08-28: 1 insider purchase, $10K — RAKOLTA JOHN JR2026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $1.5M — RAKOLTA JOHN JR2026-06-04: 1 insider purchase, $357K — AGREE RICHARD2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $1.5M — RAKOLTA JOHN JR2026-05-14: 2 insider purchases, $1.1M — Agree Joey, Lehmkuhl Greg2026-04-01: 1 insider purchase, $11K — RAKOLTA JOHN JR2026-01-09: 2 insider purchases, $1.7M — AGREE RICHARD, Coughenour Peter2025-12-24: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RAKOLTA JOHN JR2025-10-07: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — RAKOLTA JOHN JR2025-10-03: 1 insider purchase, $26K — Erlich Craig2025-10-02: 1 insider purchase, $249K — Agree Joey2025-09-05: 1 insider purchase, $55K — Lehmkuhl Greg2025-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $151K — Agree Joey2025-08-13: 2 insider purchases, $350K — Agree Joey …2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $501K2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $55K2025-10: 3 open-market purchases, $2.0M2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $1.1M2026-01: 2 open-market purchases, $1.7M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $11K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $2.6M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $357K2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $2.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector RAKOLTA JOHN JR — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RAKOLTA JOHN JR — Purchase on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector RAKOLTA JOHN JR — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector AGREE RICHARD — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RAKOLTA JOHN JR — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Agree Joey — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lehmkuhl Greg — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RAKOLTA JOHN JR — Purchase on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector AGREE RICHARD — Purchase on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Coughenour Peter — Purchase on 2026-01-09, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RAKOLTA JOHN JR — Purchase on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradedirector RAKOLTA JOHN JR — Purchase on 2025-10-07, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Erlich Craig — Purchase on 2025-10-03, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Agree Joey — Purchase on 2025-10-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lehmkuhl Greg — Purchase on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Agree Joey — Purchase on 2025-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Agree Joey — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Agree Joey — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $72.42$724K+1.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open632,197Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-28RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase136 @ $73.52$10K+0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open622,197Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-27RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $73.23$1.5M+3.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open622,061Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-04AGREE RICHARDdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $71.41$357K+5.8% of holding+9.9%not yet — horizon still open90,512Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $74.57$1.5M+3.5% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open595,798Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Agree JoeydirectorPurchase13,295 @ $75.41$1.0M+2.0% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open675,105Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Lehmkuhl GregdirectorPurchase750 @ $75.09$56K+2.2% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open34,465Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-01RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase146 @ $75.69$11Kownership Δ n/a−9.0%not yet — horizon still open146Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-09AGREE RICHARDdirectorPurchase24,000 @ $70.67$1.7M+17.7% of holding+9.2%+4.1%159,855Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-09Coughenour PeterofficerPurchase500 @ $69.80$35K+2.8% of holding+9.2%+4.1%18,544Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-24RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $72.18$1.1M+2.7% of holding+0.2%+0.6%562,606Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-07RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase25,154 @ $70.41$1.8M+4.8% of holding+1.9%+10.8%553,700Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-03Erlich CraigofficerPurchase360 @ $70.84$26K+0.7% of holding+1.7%+11.6%52,846Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-02Agree JoeydirectorPurchase3,528 @ $70.63$249K+0.6% of holding+1.7%+10.1%638,688Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05Lehmkuhl GregdirectorPurchase750 @ $72.84$55K+2.8% of holding−7.6%+8.0%27,684Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-14Agree JoeydirectorPurchase2,100 @ $72.08$151K+0.3% of holding−1.0%+4.3%635,160Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13Agree JoeydirectorPurchase4,108 @ $72.15$296K+0.7% of holding−0.4%+2.0%633,060Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Agree JoeydirectorPurchase742 @ $72.15$54K+33.9% of holding−0.4%+2.0%2,934Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $74.34$743K+2.0% of holding−6.7%−17.3%521,233Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-08RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase28,080 @ $71.30$2.0M+5.9% of holding−7.4%−34.5%507,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-23RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $70.07$701K+2.2% of holding+5.4%+1.0%472,196Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-20RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorPurchase20,275 @ $70.33$1.4M+4.6% of holding−0.1%+2.1%462,196Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Witteveen NicoleofficerWithheld for tax29323,274Form 4
2026-05-14Lehmkuhl GregdirectorAward / grant2,15933,715Form 4
2026-05-14Judlowe MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,32815,317Form 4
2026-05-14He LinglongdirectorAward / grant1,3289,668Form 4
2026-05-14RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorAward / grant1,328573,794Form 4
2026-05-14RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorAward / grant2,159572,466Form 4
2026-05-14Lehmkuhl GregdirectorAward / grant2,15931,556Form 4
2026-05-14Frankel Merrie S.directorAward / grant43211,099Form 4
2026-05-14Judlowe MichaeldirectorAward / grant2,15913,989Form 4
2026-05-14Hollman MichaeldirectorAward / grant2,15910,337Form 4
2026-05-14Dearing KarendirectorAward / grant2,15915,616Form 4
2026-05-14He LinglongdirectorAward / grant2,1598,340Form 4
2026-05-14Rossi Jerome RdirectorAward / grant2,15912,351Form 4
2026-05-06Erlich CraigofficerGift50059,388Form 4
2026-02-23Agree JoeydirectorWithheld for tax41,487661,810Form 4
2026-02-23Erlich CraigofficerWithheld for tax8,63659,888Form 4
2026-02-23Spehar Danielle MofficerWithheld for tax5,70625,785Form 4
2026-02-23AGREE RICHARDdirectorWithheld for tax4,577422,200Form 4
2026-02-23Coughenour PeterofficerWithheld for tax4,40126,656Form 4
2026-02-23Witteveen NicoleofficerWithheld for tax3,14623,567Form 4
2026-02-23Breslin StephenofficerWithheld for tax1,47513,061Form 4
2026-02-23Agree JoeydirectorAward / grant40,025703,297Form 4
2026-02-23Erlich CraigofficerAward / grant5,67358,519Form 4
2026-02-23Erlich CraigofficerAward / grant10,00568,524Form 4
2026-02-23AGREE RICHARDdirectorAward / grant8,069426,777Form 4
2026-02-23Spehar Danielle MofficerAward / grant6,00431,491Form 4
2026-02-23Witteveen NicoleofficerAward / grant8,51024,211Form 4
2026-02-23Witteveen NicoleofficerAward / grant2,50226,713Form 4
2026-02-23Breslin StephenofficerAward / grant2,52114,536Form 4
2026-02-23Spehar Danielle MofficerAward / grant4,53925,487Form 4
2026-02-23Agree JoeydirectorAward / grant24,584663,272Form 4
2026-02-23Coughenour PeterofficerAward / grant8,51027,054Form 4
2026-02-23Coughenour PeterofficerAward / grant4,00331,057Form 4
2025-12-22RAKOLTA JOHN JRdirectorGift11,549547,606Form 4
2025-12-01Breslin StephenofficerWithheld for tax26212,015Form 4
2025-11-18Agree JoeydirectorGift1,0283,962Form 4
2025-11-18AGREE RICHARDdirectorGift2,570414,708Form 4
2025-08-19Erlich CraigofficerWithheld for tax39652,486Form 4
2025-08-19Witteveen NicoleofficerWithheld for tax29415,701Form 4
2025-02-23Agree JoeydirectorWithheld for tax28,736628,952Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.