ADBEAdobe Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $250.50 · now $250.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ADBE has typically landed between $209.17 and $288.22 — a range of −16.5% to +15.1% from the issuance price $250.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($250.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ADBE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $250.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$209.17worst · -16.5%$288.22best · +15.1%
  • now $250.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $248.24 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $229.92–$266.55
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $209.17–$288.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−40.8%−40.8%+0.0%
2008-09-25−40.0%−40.0%+0.4%
2008-09-24−36.7%−36.7%+1.4%
3 best
2023-05-12+42.8%+0.0%+42.8%
2009-03-05+42.8%−0.8%+42.8%
2009-03-04+42.6%+0.0%+42.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$89.5B
market cap
$17.48
EPS (TTM)
12.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-10
next earnings
Revenue$23.8B
'20'25
Net income$7.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr30.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr61.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.57
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $250.50$157.37$630.54
  • DCF (intrinsic)$338.13
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$597.90
  • Analyst target · range $190.00–$379.00$245.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$250.50

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
58%
+2.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.8%
n=19
May
68%
+3.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.5%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Sep
32%
−3.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.0%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.7%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$367$1932026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $110K — Forusz Jillian2026-06-25: 1 insider purchase, $1.9M — Ricks David A2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $186K — Forusz Jillian2026-04-28: 3 insider sales, $18.3M — NARAYEN SHANTANU …2026-04-20: 1 insider sale, $331K — Durn Daniel2026-01-27: 1 insider sale, $485K — Durn Daniel2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $50K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $485K2026-04: 5 open-market sales, $18.8M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $1.9M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $110K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Forusz Jillian — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ricks David A — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Forusz Jillian — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector NARAYEN SHANTANU — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NARAYEN SHANTANU — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NARAYEN SHANTANU — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Durn Daniel — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Durn Daniel — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-29Forusz JillianofficerSale416 @ $264.33$110K−9.8% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open3,824Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-25Ricks David AdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $194.51$1.9M+130.6% of holding+22.3%not yet — horizon still open17,655Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-30Forusz JillianofficerSale755 @ $246.25$186K−17.7% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open3,521Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-28NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorSale51,422 @ $243.19$12.5M−11.8% of holding−6.8%not yet — horizon still open383,116Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorSale13,237 @ $243.89$3.2M−3.5% of holding−6.8%not yet — horizon still open369,879Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorSale10,341 @ $244.78$2.5M−2.8% of holding−6.8%not yet — horizon still open359,538Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-20Durn DanieldirectorSale1,336 @ $248.02$331K−3.0% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open42,833Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Durn DanieldirectorSale1,646 @ $294.85$485K−3.8% of holding−12.0%−16.9%41,995Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Day StevenofficerWithheld for tax285,350Form 4
2026-08-15Day StevenofficerOption exercise585,378Form 4
2026-08-15Day StevenofficerOption exercise58231Form 4
2026-07-15NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorWithheld for tax1,416363,724Form 4
2026-07-15NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorWithheld for tax1,090360,648Form 4
2026-07-15NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorWithheld for tax980362,283Form 4
2026-07-15Pentland Adele LouiseofficerWithheld for tax6486,059Form 4
2026-07-15Chen GloriaofficerWithheld for tax64850,434Form 4
2026-07-15Balazs LaraofficerWithheld for tax6485,638Form 4
2026-07-15NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorWithheld for tax626361,286Form 4
2026-07-15Balazs LaraofficerWithheld for tax6094,978Form 4
2026-07-15Wadhwani DavidofficerWithheld for tax56042,861Form 4
2026-07-15Chakravarthy AnildirectorWithheld for tax56061,893Form 4
2026-07-15Chen GloriaofficerWithheld for tax38149,185Form 4
2026-07-15Wadhwani DavidofficerWithheld for tax37741,719Form 4
2026-07-15Chakravarthy AnildirectorWithheld for tax37760,751Form 4
2026-07-15Chen GloriaofficerWithheld for tax35949,774Form 4
2026-07-15Chakravarthy AnildirectorWithheld for tax34561,323Form 4
2026-07-15Wadhwani DavidofficerWithheld for tax34542,291Form 4
2026-07-15Forusz JillianofficerWithheld for tax2384,240Form 4
2026-07-15Chen GloriaofficerWithheld for tax21949,408Form 4
2026-07-15Chakravarthy AnildirectorWithheld for tax21660,972Form 4
2026-07-15Wadhwani DavidofficerWithheld for tax21641,940Form 4
2026-07-15Day StevenofficerWithheld for tax2075,320Form 4
2026-07-15Day StevenofficerWithheld for tax755,108Form 4
2026-07-15Day StevenofficerWithheld for tax315,030Form 4
2026-07-15Day StevenofficerWithheld for tax274,998Form 4
2026-07-15Forusz JillianofficerWithheld for tax203,864Form 4
2026-07-15Forusz JillianofficerWithheld for tax113,887Form 4
2026-07-15Forusz JillianofficerWithheld for tax73,902Form 4
2026-07-15Forusz JillianofficerAward / grant18,09318,093Form 4
2026-07-15NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorOption exercise1,2647,588Form 4
2026-07-15Wadhwani DavidofficerOption exercise4372,623Form 4
2026-07-15Chakravarthy AnildirectorOption exercise4372,623Form 4
2026-07-15Forusz JillianofficerOption exercise5768,060Form 4
2026-07-15NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorOption exercise1,977363,263Form 4
2026-07-15Wadhwani DavidofficerOption exercise69642,636Form 4
2026-07-15NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorOption exercise2,85740,003Form 4
2026-07-15Forusz JillianofficerOption exercise223,909Form 4
2026-07-15Pentland Adele LouiseofficerAward / grant31,66231,662Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-06-082026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.