Issued 2026-08-13 at $3.75 · now $3.72 (2026-08-13, −0.8% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, ADAG has typically landed between $2.75 and $5.18 — a range of −26.7% to +38.1% from the issuance price $3.75.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,363 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-09 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($3.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADAG has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $3.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.72 (-0.8%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.55 (-5.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.09–$4.01
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.75–$5.18
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-03-16 | −41.0% | −41.0% | +0.0% |
| 2021-03-12 | −39.4% | −39.6% | +0.6% |
| 2021-03-17 | −39.1% | −40.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-12-22 | +147.0% | −1.2% | +147.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | +136.7% | −13.0% | +136.7% |
| 2023-12-26 | +136.5% | −0.6% | +148.5% |
1,363 overlapping windows · 2021-02-09 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: ADG126 in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.