Issued 2026-09-25 at $2.93 · now $2.93 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ADAG has typically landed between $2.15 and $4.05 — a range of −26.8% to +38.1% from the issuance price $2.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,393 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-09 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($2.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ADAG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $2.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.79 (-4.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.43–$3.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.15–$4.05
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-03-16 | −41.0% | −41.0% | +0.0% |
| 2021-03-12 | −39.4% | −39.6% | +0.6% |
| 2021-03-17 | −39.1% | −40.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-12-22 | +147.0% | −1.2% | +147.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | +136.7% | −13.0% | +136.7% |
| 2023-12-26 | +136.5% | −0.6% | +148.5% |
1,393 overlapping windows · 2021-02-09 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: ADG126 in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Tam Man Kin | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $3.00 | $6K | +20.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Luo Peter | director | Purchase | 20,290 @ $3.15 | $64K | +29.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 88,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | DO CUONG V | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $3.75 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Luo Peter | director | Purchase | 279 @ $3.65 | $1K | +0.4% of holding | −13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Luo Peter | director | Purchase | 22,966 @ $3.65 | $84K | +51.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
4 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Zhu Li | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Grawunder Ulf | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 85,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Cheung Andy Yiu Leung | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | DO CUONG V | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.