Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.90 · now $36.85 (2026-09-17, −2.8% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AD has typically landed between $32.63 and $44.15 — a range of −13.9% to +16.5% from the issuance price $37.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.85 (-2.8%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.34 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.23–$40.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.63–$44.15
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-11 | −40.7% | −40.7% | +2.7% |
| 2008-09-26 | −37.3% | −39.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −36.2% | −38.7% | +2.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-08-01 | +164.7% | −0.6% | +164.7% |
| 2023-08-02 | +164.1% | +0.0% | +166.4% |
| 2023-08-03 | +162.6% | +0.0% | +164.4% |
4,674 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | HARCZAK HARRY J JR | director | Sale | 4,709 @ $38.18 | $180K | −22.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,538 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | HARCZAK HARRY J JR | director | Sale | 2,123 @ $38.21 | $81K | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,415 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Williams Xavier | director | Award / grant | 1,873 | 8,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Iriarte Esteban C | director | Award / grant | 1,873 | 11,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | HARCZAK HARRY J JR | director | Award / grant | 1,873 | 21,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 4,150 | 14,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 4,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 1,742 | 10,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 1,742 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Withheld for tax | 1,217 | 13,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Withheld for tax | 511 | 10,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Award / grant | 5,805 | 5,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Award / grant | 5,805 | 5,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 1,004 | 1,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 1,004 | 9,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Withheld for tax | 349 | 8,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 5,022 | 9,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Withheld for tax | 1,355 | 8,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 5,022 | 4,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Carlson Anthony J | director | Option exercise | 5,022 | 4,489 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.