Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.42 · now $10.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACVA has typically landed between $7.83 and $13.15 — a range of −24.9% to +26.2% from the issuance price $10.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,356 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.37 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.4–$11.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.83–$13.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,356 windows spanning 2021-03-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-25 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +0.7% |
| 2026-01-26 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-08 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +2.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-06 | +59.5% | +0.0% | +60.1% |
| 2023-04-21 | +50.7% | +0.0% | +50.7% |
| 2025-11-07 | +49.4% | +0.0% | +50.9% |
1,356 overlapping windows · 2021-03-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−5.9%
n=5
Feb
40%
−0.1%
n=5
Mar
60%
−0.3%
n=5
Apr
50%
+1.5%
n=6
May
67%
+1.8%
n=6
Jun
50%
−1.9%
n=6
Jul
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Aug
33%
−2.5%
n=6
Sep
33%
+0.7%
n=6
Oct
40%
+0.0%
n=5
Nov
60%
+8.1%
n=5
Dec
20%
−4.7%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Chamoun George | director | Purchase | 24,272 @ $5.05 | $123K | +0.8% of holding | −11.0% | +23.0% | 2,952,977 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Waterman Michael | officer | Purchase | 214,600 @ $4.66 | $1.0M | +60.5% of holding | −3.8% | +41.5% | 569,102 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Chamoun George | director | Purchase | 16,892 @ $7.30 | $123K | +0.6% of holding | −29.0% | −12.2% | 2,928,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Peer Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,750 @ $8.85 | $15K | −2.4% of holding | −27.0% | −25.3% | 72,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Chamoun George | director | Purchase | 14,286 @ $8.81 | $126K | +0.6% of holding | −17.4% | −24.1% | 2,598,383 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Chamoun George | director | Purchase | 31,172 @ $7.97 | $248K | +1.2% of holding | +13.0% | −30.8% | 2,618,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Peer Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,750 @ $8.03 | $14K | −3.1% of holding | +13.0% | −30.8% | 55,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Peer Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,750 @ $8.00 | $14K | −3.1% of holding | +3.1% | −36.4% | 54,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Castillo Kirsten | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $6.27 | $31K | +14.7% of holding | +21.7% | −17.4% | 39,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Hirsch Brian | director | Purchase | 80,571 @ $6.21 | $500K | +421.7% of holding | +27.2% | −14.9% | 99,678 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Castillo Kirsten | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $6.26 | $94K | +78.5% of holding | +27.2% | −14.9% | 34,107 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | GOODMAN ROBERT P | director | Purchase | 912,408 @ $5.61 | $5.1M | ownership Δ n/a | +47.1% | −8.3% | 912,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Peer Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,750 @ $8.84 | $15K | −3.1% of holding | −28.1% | −49.9% | 54,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Peer Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,750 @ $10.11 | $18K | −3.0% of holding | −13.1% | −52.5% | 56,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Anderson Craig Eric | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.04 | $226K | −4.2% of holding | −26.0% | −53.5% | 340,799 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Waterman Michael | officer | Sale | 34,339 @ $16.05 | $551K | −8.3% of holding | −13.5% | −59.4% | 379,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Chamoun George | director | Sale | 142,422 @ $16.92 | $2.4M | −4.9% of holding | −7.5% | −66.1% | 2,746,072 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Chamoun George | director | Sale | 207,578 @ $16.73 | $3.5M | −6.7% of holding | −7.2% | −65.6% | 2,888,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Waterman Michael | officer | Sale | 22,171 @ $16.75 | $371K | −5.2% of holding | −7.2% | −65.6% | 405,610 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | KAMERICK EILEEN A | director | Sale | 9,239 @ $16.70 | $154K | −48.4% of holding | −7.2% | −65.6% | 9,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Waterman Michael | officer | Sale | 223,330 @ $17.00 | $3.8M | −32.4% of holding | −5.8% | −84.6% | 466,548 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Peer Andrew | officer | Sale | 10,261 @ $17.18 | $176K | −14.5% of holding | −2.6% | −84.3% | 60,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-08 | Peer Andrew | officer | Sale | 2,666 @ $17.00 | $45K | −3.6% of holding | −4.2% | −88.2% | 70,645 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Waterman Michael | officer | Sale | 115,987 @ $16.10 | $1.9M | −26.1% of holding | −4.3% | −53.2% | 327,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Chamoun George | director | Sale | 348,249 @ $15.34 | $5.3M | −11.0% of holding | −2.5% | −52.1% | 2,821,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Chamoun George | director | Sale | 1,751 @ $15.00 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | +4.8% | −46.7% | 3,169,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | ZERELLA WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.53 | $203K | −1.9% of holding | +6.3% | −42.3% | 766,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | ZERELLA WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $20.63 | $309K | −3.2% of holding | −27.2% | −37.1% | 447,452 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Waterman Michael | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $20.27 | $304K | −4.6% of holding | −27.2% | −37.1% | 311,354 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Waterman Michael | officer | Sale | 9,985 @ $20.24 | $202K | −3.1% of holding | −0.4% | −29.4% | 311,354 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Waterman Michael | officer | Sale | 30,162 @ $20.53 | $619K | −8.7% of holding | +2.2% | −27.3% | 314,738 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | ZERELLA WILLIAM | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $20.57 | $309K | −3.1% of holding | +2.2% | −27.3% | 462,452 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
268 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Peer Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 100,672 | 194,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Chamoun George | director | Withheld for tax | 21,281 | 3,398,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Chamoun George | director | Withheld for tax | 13,401 | 3,365,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mehta Vikas | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,776 | 816,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Chamoun George | director | Withheld for tax | 10,582 | 3,387,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Chamoun George | director | Withheld for tax | 9,422 | 3,378,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ZERELLA WILLIAM | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,060 | 1,081,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Anderson Craig Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,957 | 474,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Waterman Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,824 | 816,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fitzgerald Leanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,183 | 560,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mehta Vikas | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,382 | 829,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mehta Vikas | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,319 | 812,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Anderson Craig Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,185 | 488,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ZERELLA WILLIAM | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,919 | 1,076,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Waterman Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,919 | 805,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mehta Vikas | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,487 | 835,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ZERELLA WILLIAM | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,481 | 1,090,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Anderson Craig Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,430 | 480,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Waterman Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,365 | 812,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fitzgerald Leanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,158 | 552,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Anderson Craig Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,645 | 485,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fitzgerald Leanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,553 | 556,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ZERELLA WILLIAM | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,459 | 1,095,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Waterman Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,459 | 808,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fitzgerald Leanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,924 | 550,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Peer Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,223 | 94,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Peer Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 957 | 94,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Peer Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 828 | 95,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Peer Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 673 | 97,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Peer Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 630 | 96,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | KAMERICK EILEEN A | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 37,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | GOODMAN ROBERT P | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 421,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | JONES RENE F | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 46,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Radecki Brian J | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 107,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Castillo Kirsten | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 66,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hirsch Brian | director | Award / grant | 27,500 | 127,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chamoun George | director | Award / grant | 500,221 | 3,419,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chamoun George | director | Withheld for tax | 13,401 | 2,939,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chamoun George | director | Withheld for tax | 10,582 | 2,919,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chamoun George | director | Withheld for tax | 9,422 | 2,930,154 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.