ACTG · TickerCove

ACTGAcacia Research CorporationIndustrials · Specialty Business Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.54 · now $4.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACTG has typically landed between $3.86 and $5.24 — a range of −15.0% to +15.4% from the issuance price $4.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.54 · 68% of range

$3.2 low$5.16 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.7%

typical move · IQR 10.1%

−15.0%worst (p90)+15.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ACTG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.54 (+0.0%)
typical $4.51 (-0.7%)
middle 50% $4.28–$4.74
90% range $3.86–$5.24

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-23	−51.7%	−51.7%	+0.0%
2008-09-18	−50.8%	−52.8%	+0.0%
2008-09-24	−50.7%	−50.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-01-11	+90.3%	+0.0%	+90.3%
2021-01-04	+86.3%	+0.0%	+86.3%
2021-01-13	+86.0%	+0.0%	+87.2%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−1.7%

n=20

Feb

50%

+1.2%

n=20

Mar

60%

+5.3%

n=20

Apr

50%

+3.2%

n=20

May

60%

+0.5%

n=20

Jun

55%

+4.7%

n=20

Jul

25%

−3.1%

n=20

Aug

50%

+0.6%

n=20

Sep

40%

−1.1%

n=20

Oct

35%

−1.4%

n=20

Nov

55%

−0.7%

n=20

Dec

40%

−0.7%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Kohlberg Isaac T.	director	Sale	24,000 @ $4.55	$109K	−30.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	54,310	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-03	OCONNELL MAUREEN	director	Sale	12,466 @ $4.57	$57K	−4.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	254,655	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	OCONNELL MAUREEN	director	Sale	20,534 @ $4.63	$95K	−7.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	267,121	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	OCONNELL MAUREEN	director	Sale	10,000 @ $4.60	$46K	−3.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	287,655	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Kohlberg Isaac T.	director	Sale	32,188 @ $4.67	$150K	−29.1% of holding	−0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	78,310	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11	Zambito Michael SIKORYAK	officer	Purchase	7,700 @ $3.27	$25K	ownership Δ n/a	−6.8%	+15.5%	7,700	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11	Kohlberg Isaac T.	director	Sale	16,000 @ $3.84	$61K	−15.8% of holding	−5.5%	−15.5%	85,446	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21	Soncini Jason W.	officer	Purchase	7,000 @ $3.79	$27K	+3.5% of holding	−7.8%	−21.7%	209,184	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19	McNulty Martin D. Jr.	director	Purchase	5,300 @ $3.77	$20K	+2.9% of holding	−3.4%	−19.7%	185,117	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	FELMAN MICHELLE	director	Gift	16,086	41,138	Form 4
2026-08-28	FELMAN MICHELLE	director	Gift	16,086	25,052	Form 4
2026-06-30	Molinelli Gavin	director	Award / grant	6,438	205,966	Form 4
2026-06-23	Sundar Ajay	director	Award / grant	4,175	107,605	Form 4
2026-06-23	OCONNELL MAUREEN	director	Award / grant	25,052	297,655	Form 4
2026-06-23	FELMAN MICHELLE	director	Award / grant	25,052	57,224	Form 4
2026-06-23	Kohlberg Isaac T.	director	Award / grant	25,052	110,498	Form 4
2026-06-23	Molinelli Gavin	director	Award / grant	25,052	199,528	Form 4
2026-06-08	McNulty Martin D. Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	287,133	418,430	Form 4
2026-06-08	Soncini Jason W.	officer	Withheld for tax	48,985	235,615	Form 4
2026-06-08	Rasamny Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	28,390	73,976	Form 4
2026-06-05	Rasamny Robert	officer	Award / grant	60,285	102,366	Form 4
2026-06-05	McNulty Martin D. Jr.	director	Award / grant	539,160	705,563	Form 4
2026-06-05	Soncini Jason W.	officer	Award / grant	93,049	284,600	Form 4
2026-03-31	Molinelli Gavin	director	Award / grant	6,237	174,476	Form 4
2026-03-31	Sundar Ajay	director	Award / grant	4,158	103,430	Form 4
2026-03-23	Soncini Jason W.	officer	Withheld for tax	6,147	191,551	Form 4
2026-03-10	McNulty Martin D. Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	8,207	166,403	Form 4
2025-12-31	Molinelli Gavin	director	Award / grant	8,021	168,239	Form 4
2025-12-31	Sundar Ajay	director	Award / grant	5,348	99,272	Form 4
2025-09-30	Molinelli Gavin	director	Award / grant	9,231	160,218	Form 4
2025-09-30	Sundar Ajay	director	Award / grant	6,154	93,924	Form 4
2025-08-11	FELMAN MICHELLE	director	Gift	11,561	32,172	Form 4
2025-08-11	FELMAN MICHELLE	director	Gift	11,560	43,733	Form 4
2025-06-30	Molinelli Gavin	director	Award / grant	8,380	150,987	Form 4
2025-06-30	Sundar Ajay	director	Award / grant	5,587	87,770	Form 4
2025-06-09	Soncini Jason W.	officer	Withheld for tax	11,486	197,698	Form 4
2025-06-09	McNulty Martin D. Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	10,507	174,610	Form 4
2025-06-09	Rasamny Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	6,657	42,081	Form 4
2025-06-09	Hoover Kirsten	officer	Withheld for tax	6,464	84,677	Form 4
2025-05-30	Molinelli Gavin	director	Award / grant	32,172	142,607	Form 4
2025-05-30	OCONNELL MAUREEN	director	Award / grant	32,172	272,603	Form 4
2025-05-30	FELMAN MICHELLE	director	Award / grant	32,172	55,293	Form 4
2025-05-30	Kohlberg Isaac T.	director	Award / grant	32,172	101,446	Form 4
2025-05-30	Sundar Ajay	director	Award / grant	32,172	82,183	Form 4
2025-05-30	RIBAR GEOFFREY G	director	Award / grant	32,172	85,827	Form 4
2025-05-16	Starboard Value LP	other	Other acquisition	3,255,169	8,210,058	Form 4
2025-05-16	Starboard Principal Co LP	other	Other acquisition	3,255,169	0	Form 4
2025-05-16	Starboard Principal Co LP	other	Other acquisition	3,255,169	8,210,058	Form 4
2025-05-16	Starboard Value LP	other	Other acquisition	3,255,169	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i