ACRV · TickerCove

ACRVAcrivon Therapeutics, Inc. Common StockHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.70 · now $1.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACRV has typically landed between $1.14 and $2.46 — a range of −33.2% to +44.9% from the issuance price $1.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

939 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-11-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.7 · 24% of range

$1.29 low$3.01 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.8%

typical move · IQR 28.8%

−33.2%worst (p90)+44.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ACRV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.7 (+0.0%)
typical $1.65 (-2.8%)
middle 50% $1.41–$1.9
90% range $1.14–$2.46

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 939 windows spanning 2022-11-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-03-07	−74.9%	−74.9%	+1.3%
2025-03-10	−74.3%	−74.3%	+6.0%
2025-03-06	−72.6%	−72.6%	+1.8%
3 best
2024-03-08	+109.9%	+0.0%	+109.9%
2024-03-12	+100.2%	+0.0%	+108.2%
2023-01-09	+95.2%	+0.0%	+95.2%

939 overlapping windows · 2022-11-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−2.5%

n=4

Feb

50%

+7.6%

n=4

Mar

25%

−15.0%

n=4

Apr

50%

+6.5%

n=4

May

−14.5%

n=4

Jun

75%

+2.4%

n=4

Jul

50%

+8.1%

n=4

Aug

75%

+12.9%

n=4

Sep

25%

−7.1%

n=4

Oct

67%

−7.0%

n=3

Nov

33%

−3.1%

n=3

Dec

50%

−1.8%

n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-25	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Sale	14,036 @ $2.21	$31K	−0.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	2,230,052	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Sale	1,229 @ $2.01	$2K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	2,244,088	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Devroe Eric	officer	Sale	604 @ $2.01	$1K	−0.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	146,349	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Sale	484 @ $2.01	$973	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	385,859	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Gamelin Erick	officer	Sale	400 @ $2.01	$804	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	52,592	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Miller Mary	officer	Sale	185 @ $2.01	$372	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	82,009	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Peterson Katharine	officer	Sale	101 @ $2.01	$203	−0.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	18,033	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Levy Adam D.	officer	Sale	1,142 @ $1.57	$2K	−1.7% of holding	+38.6%	not yet — horizon still open	66,008	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-21	Miller Mary	officer	Sale	573 @ $1.76	$1K	−0.7% of holding	+33.8%	not yet — horizon still open	82,194	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-14	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Purchase	49,000 @ $1.68	$82K	+2.4% of holding	−9.7%	−12.6%	2,095,771	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-14	Levy Adam D.	officer	Purchase	8,832 @ $1.70	$15K	+72.7% of holding	−9.7%	−12.6%	20,983	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-13	Devroe Eric	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $1.72	$17K	+15.3% of holding	−5.3%	−5.8%	75,308	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01	PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC	director	Sale	298,886 @ $1.34	$401K	−8.8% of holding	−22.7%	+23.4%	3,104,139	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-30	PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC	director	Sale	437,881 @ $1.41	$617K	−11.4% of holding	−31.3%	+10.3%	3,403,025	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-29	PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC	director	Sale	250,000 @ $1.41	$353K	−6.1% of holding	−30.1%	+12.8%	3,840,906	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-28	PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC	director	Sale	215,283 @ $1.56	$336K	−5.0% of holding	−35.7%	+9.7%	4,090,906	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-25	PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC	director	Sale	1,054,669 @ $1.95	$2.1M	−19.7% of holding	−40.3%	+2.5%	4,306,189	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Levin Michaela	officer	Award / grant	30,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-08-31	Levin Michaela	officer	Award / grant	130,000	130,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	Shacham Sharon	director	Award / grant	20,275	20,275	Form 4
2026-06-17	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Award / grant	20,275	20,275	Form 4
2026-06-17	TOMSICEK MICHAEL JOHN	director	Award / grant	20,275	20,275	Form 4
2026-06-17	BAUM CHARLES M	director	Award / grant	20,275	20,275	Form 4
2026-06-17	DiRocco Derek	director	Award / grant	20,275	20,275	Form 4
2026-06-17	Magovcevic-Liebisch Ivana	director	Award / grant	20,275	20,275	Form 4
2026-06-17	Palani Santhosh	director	Award / grant	20,275	20,275	Form 4
2026-05-21	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Withheld for tax	13,729	2,245,317	Form 4
2026-05-18	TOMSICEK MICHAEL JOHN	director	Award / grant	9,366	9,366	Form 4
2026-05-18	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Award / grant	9,366	9,366	Form 4
2026-05-18	Gamelin Erick	officer	Award / grant	38,584	52,992	Form 4
2026-05-18	Levy Adam D.	officer	Award / grant	46,167	67,150	Form 4
2026-05-18	Miller Mary	officer	Award / grant	49,830	82,767	Form 4
2026-05-18	Mirza Mansoor Raza	director	Award / grant	38,817	38,817	Form 4
2026-05-18	BAUM CHARLES M	director	Award / grant	9,366	9,366	Form 4
2026-05-18	Magovcevic-Liebisch Ivana	director	Award / grant	9,366	9,366	Form 4
2026-05-18	Shacham Sharon	director	Award / grant	9,366	9,366	Form 4
2026-05-18	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Award / grant	180,095	2,259,046	Form 4
2026-05-18	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Award / grant	72,706	386,343	Form 4
2026-05-18	Palani Santhosh	director	Award / grant	9,366	9,366	Form 4
2026-05-18	Peterson Katharine	officer	Award / grant	14,227	18,134	Form 4
2026-05-18	Devroe Eric	officer	Award / grant	72,981	146,953	Form 4
2026-05-18	DiRocco Derek	director	Award / grant	9,366	9,366	Form 4
2026-05-14	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Withheld for tax	1,253	2,078,951	Form 4
2026-05-14	Devroe Eric	officer	Withheld for tax	613	73,972	Form 4
2026-05-14	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Withheld for tax	490	313,637	Form 4
2026-05-14	Gamelin Erick	officer	Withheld for tax	404	14,408	Form 4
2026-05-14	Miller Mary	officer	Withheld for tax	184	32,937	Form 4
2026-05-14	Peterson Katharine	officer	Withheld for tax	99	3,907	Form 4
2026-04-22	RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.	director	Award / grant	3,888,888	11,803,094	Form 4
2026-04-17	Miller Mary	officer	Withheld for tax	558	33,121	Form 4
2026-03-01	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Award / grant	185,495	185,495	Form 4
2026-03-01	Miller Mary	officer	Award / grant	129,760	129,760	Form 4
2026-03-01	Mirza Mansoor Raza	director	Award / grant	174,068	174,068	Form 4
2026-03-01	Devroe Eric	officer	Award / grant	186,728	186,728	Form 4
2026-03-01	Levy Adam D.	officer	Award / grant	132,925	132,925	Form 4
2026-03-01	Gamelin Erick	officer	Award / grant	94,946	94,946	Form 4
2026-03-01	Blume-Jensen Peter	director	Award / grant	417,210	417,210	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i