ACREAres Commercial Real Estate CorporationReal Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.33 · now $4.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACRE has typically landed between $3.63 and $4.94 — a range of −16.1% to +14.1% from the issuance price $4.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,597 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-04-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ACRE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.63worst · -16.1%$4.94best · +14.1%
  • now $4.33 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.3 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.03–$4.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.63–$4.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,597 windows spanning 2012-04-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−74.6%−74.6%+4.5%
2020-03-05−72.5%−72.9%+0.0%
2020-02-24−70.4%−75.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+78.2%+0.0%+104.8%
2020-04-03+77.0%+0.0%+97.9%
2020-04-02+52.6%−16.2%+65.8%

3,597 overlapping windows · 2012-04-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
57%
+2.0%
n=14
Feb
29%
−2.6%
n=14
Mar
57%
−3.3%
n=14
Apr
50%
+0.7%
n=14
May
40%
+0.5%
n=15
Jun
60%
+1.7%
n=15
Jul
67%
+2.4%
n=15
Aug
60%
+1.1%
n=15
Sep
33%
−2.3%
n=15
Oct
57%
+1.6%
n=14
Nov
71%
+5.0%
n=14
Dec
50%
−2.1%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$5$42026-01-14: 3 insider sales, $175K — Donohoe Bryan Patrick, FEINGOLD ANTON, Gonzales Jeffrey Michael2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $175K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Donohoe Bryan Patrick — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FEINGOLD ANTON — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gonzales Jeffrey Michael — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-01-14Donohoe Bryan PatrickofficerSale21,761 @ $4.93$107K−8.0% of holding+5.3%−8.9%250,197Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14FEINGOLD ANTONdirectorSale7,606 @ $4.93$37K−7.6% of holding+5.3%−8.9%92,754Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14Gonzales Jeffrey MichaelofficerSale6,218 @ $4.93$31K−6.6% of holding+5.3%−8.9%88,533Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-31Donohoe Bryan PatrickofficerSale23,465 @ $5.68$133K−9.7% of holding−11.5%−20.5%218,949Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31FEINGOLD ANTONdirectorSale7,615 @ $5.68$43K−8.9% of holding−11.5%−20.5%78,360Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31Gonzales Jeffrey MichaelofficerSale4,020 @ $5.68$23K−7.3% of holding−11.5%−20.5%50,751Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-29Moriarty Edmond N. IIIdirectorAward / grant18,87998,905Form 4
2026-04-29SKINNER JAMES EdirectorAward / grant18,879116,217Form 4
2026-04-29April Rand ScottdirectorAward / grant18,87918,879Form 4
2026-04-29Parekh Rebecca JaisalidirectorAward / grant18,87977,258Form 4
2026-04-29Blakely CarolinedirectorAward / grant18,87950,495Form 4
2026-04-29Browning WilliamdirectorAward / grant18,87925,053Form 4
2025-12-11Gonzales Jeffrey MichaelofficerAward / grant44,00094,751Form 4
2025-12-11Yoon Tae SikofficerAward / grant37,400289,153Form 4
2025-12-11FEINGOLD ANTONdirectorAward / grant22,000100,360Form 4
2025-12-11Donohoe Bryan PatrickofficerAward / grant49,500271,958Form 4
2025-04-29Moriarty Edmond N. IIIdirectorAward / grant24,69680,026Form 4
2025-04-29Parekh Rebecca JaisalidirectorAward / grant24,69658,379Form 4
2025-04-29April Rand ScottdirectorAward / grant24,69624,696Form 4
2025-04-29Browning WilliamdirectorAward / grant24,69628,156Form 4
2025-04-29Blakely CarolinedirectorAward / grant24,69631,616Form 4
2025-04-29SKINNER JAMES EdirectorAward / grant24,69697,338Form 4
2024-12-13Yoon Tae SikofficerAward / grant32,500251,753Form 4
2024-12-13FEINGOLD ANTONdirectorAward / grant17,00085,975Form 4
2024-12-13Donohoe Bryan PatrickofficerAward / grant45,000242,414Form 4
2024-12-13Gonzales Jeffrey MichaelofficerAward / grant25,00054,771Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.