Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.33 · now $13.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACR has typically landed between $11.10 and $15.56 — a range of −16.7% to +16.7% from the issuance price $13.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,672 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.25 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.3–$14.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.1–$15.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,672 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-05 | −90.5% | −90.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −85.7% | −85.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-06 | −84.7% | −90.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-24 | +149.0% | +0.0% | +149.0% |
| 2008-11-21 | +148.7% | +0.0% | +167.1% |
| 2020-04-03 | +144.3% | +0.0% | +228.3% |
4,672 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
63%
+5.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.3%
n=19
May
42%
−3.6%
n=19
Jun
68%
+1.4%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.1%
n=19
Oct
39%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
44%
+1.1%
n=18
Dec
56%
+3.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | BRYANT DAVID J | director | Sale | 1,440 @ $13.89 | $20K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,875 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 98 @ $21.80 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 715,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 84 @ $21.80 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 715,687 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 908 @ $21.80 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 715,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,212 @ $21.80 | $48K | −0.3% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 716,679 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 206 @ $21.79 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 718,891 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,389 @ $21.78 | $30K | −0.2% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 719,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,267 @ $21.78 | $28K | −0.2% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 720,486 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-23 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,234 @ $21.79 | $114K | −0.7% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 721,753 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,732 @ $21.78 | $60K | −0.4% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 726,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 389 @ $21.82 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | −23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 729,719 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9 @ $21.85 | $197 | −0.0% of holding | −22.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 730,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,113 @ $21.87 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 730,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,076 @ $22.50 | $47K | −0.3% of holding | −24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 731,230 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,711 @ $25.47 | $95K | −1.1% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 339,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,270 @ $22.57 | $51K | −0.3% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 733,306 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 849 @ $25.47 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 343,036 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 215 @ $25.47 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 343,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,521 @ $22.55 | $34K | −0.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 735,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6 @ $25.47 | $153 | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 344,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 422 @ $22.55 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 737,097 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,801 @ $25.41 | $147K | −1.7% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 344,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5 @ $22.55 | $113 | −0.0% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 737,519 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 404 @ $22.50 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 737,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,095 @ $22.12 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 737,928 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,954 @ $22.07 | $65K | −0.4% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 739,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,142 @ $21.80 | $68K | −0.4% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 741,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,440 @ $25.08 | $36K | −0.4% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 349,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 700 @ $22.03 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 745,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,301 @ $25.28 | $33K | −0.4% of holding | +8.7% | −38.3% | 351,347 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,800 @ $25.25 | $45K | −0.5% of holding | +8.1% | −38.4% | 352,648 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 600 @ $25.25 | $15K | −0.2% of holding | +6.6% | −38.8% | 354,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $25.23 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +7.0% | −36.4% | 355,048 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 409 @ $25.20 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +4.6% | −36.4% | 355,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 273 @ $22.20 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +3.9% | −38.0% | 745,819 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 97 @ $22.12 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +2.9% | −33.3% | 746,092 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44 @ $22.12 | $973 | −0.0% of holding | +0.8% | −34.8% | 746,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5 @ $25.10 | $126 | −0.0% of holding | +0.8% | −34.8% | 355,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,200 @ $22.11 | $115K | −0.7% of holding | −1.2% | −35.3% | 746,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,868 @ $25.09 | $72K | −0.8% of holding | −0.3% | −34.5% | 355,562 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-30 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,912 @ $22.10 | $42K | −0.3% of holding | −0.3% | −34.5% | 751,433 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-29 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 53 @ $22.10 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −3.9% | −35.1% | 753,345 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 201 @ $22.10 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −2.0% | −35.9% | 753,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,100 @ $22.02 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | −6.5% | −41.9% | 753,599 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-21 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 692 @ $22.07 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | −9.3% | −43.6% | 754,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,400 @ $24.99 | $135K | −1.5% of holding | −6.7% | −20.1% | 358,430 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,979 @ $24.93 | $348K | −3.7% of holding | −6.3% | −20.4% | 363,830 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-09 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,702 @ $24.89 | $92K | −1.0% of holding | −12.0% | −24.4% | 377,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,000 @ $22.41 | $112K | −0.7% of holding | −10.6% | −26.1% | 755,391 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 455 @ $22.30 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −13.4% | −26.7% | 760,391 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 499 @ $22.26 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −14.9% | −24.5% | 760,846 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,372 @ $22.26 | $31K | −0.2% of holding | −14.9% | −39.6% | 761,345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 114 @ $22.26 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −16.4% | −43.5% | 762,717 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 653 @ $25.26 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | −16.3% | −41.0% | 381,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 605 @ $22.26 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | −16.3% | −41.0% | 762,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 98 @ $25.24 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −13.8% | −31.2% | 382,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 99 @ $25.22 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −15.9% | −30.1% | 382,262 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 48 @ $25.22 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −13.7% | −28.3% | 382,361 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,054 @ $25.20 | $127K | −1.3% of holding | +0.7% | −20.9% | 382,409 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Eagle Point Credit Management LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 913 @ $25.19 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | −15.6% | 387,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Fogel Mark S | officer | Award / grant | 1,440,552 | 1,447,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Jesberger Jaclyn | officer | Award / grant | 343,856 | 354,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | KESSLER STEVEN J | director | Award / grant | 2,568 | 49,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | NEFF P SHERRILL | director | Award / grant | 4,280 | 35,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Kilpatrick Linda M | officer | Award / grant | 3,928 | 5,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Persaud Richard A. | officer | Award / grant | 109,990 | 111,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Reasoner Martin E. | officer | Award / grant | 1,517,095 | 1,535,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | BRYANT DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 2,123 | 47,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | BRYANT DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 2,054 | 49,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Fentress Andrew | director | Award / grant | 988,453 | 1,029,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Fentress Andrew | director | Award / grant | 892,213 | 892,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brengel Kyle K. | officer | Award / grant | 309,675 | 321,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Blackwell Eldron C | officer | Award / grant | 7,856 | 13,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Edwards Karen K | director | Award / grant | 2,568 | 17,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Ickowicz Gary | director | Award / grant | 2,568 | 33,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ACRES Share Holdings, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Disposition | 1,171,112 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ACRES Share Holdings, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Disposition | 1,171,112 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ACRES Share Holdings, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Disposition | 1,171,112 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | ACRES Share Holdings, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Disposition | 1,171,112 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ACRES Share Holdings, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Award / grant | 204,765 | 1,171,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Williams Dawanna | director | Award / grant | 5,555 | 15,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | LEVIN MURRAY S | director | Award / grant | 5,555 | 32,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Ickowicz Gary | director | Award / grant | 5,555 | 31,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | BRYANT DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 5,555 | 45,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Edwards Karen K | director | Award / grant | 5,555 | 15,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | NEFF P SHERRILL | director | Award / grant | 5,555 | 31,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | KESSLER STEVEN J | director | Award / grant | 5,555 | 46,882 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.