Issued 2026-09-16 at $189.64 · now $189.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACN has typically landed between $162.40 and $213.45 — a range of −14.4% to +12.6% from the issuance price $189.64.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($189.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $189.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $189.64 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $189.92 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $178.52–$201.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $162.4–$213.45
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-29 | −33.5% | −33.5% | +5.1% |
| 2026-06-01 | −33.3% | −36.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −32.2% | −32.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-29 | +40.5% | −0.2% | +40.5% |
| 2026-07-14 | +33.9% | +0.0% | +33.9% |
| 2026-07-23 | +33.5% | +0.0% | +33.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$217.83
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$428.25
- Analyst target · range $130.00–$282.00$192.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$189.64
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 68 @ $175.97 | $12K | −100.0% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 3,555 @ $162.29 | $577K | −13.2% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 2,772 @ $164.44 | $456K | −13.4% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 2,569 @ $163.27 | $419K | −11.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 1,373 @ $160.86 | $221K | −4.9% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 229 @ $165.16 | $38K | −1.3% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Egawa Atsushi | officer | Sale | 2,761 @ $177.62 | $490K | −17.4% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,063 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | Egawa Atsushi | officer | Sale | 1,306 @ $176.93 | $231K | −7.6% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,824 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | Egawa Atsushi | officer | Sale | 544 @ $174.53 | $95K | −3.1% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,130 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | Egawa Atsushi | officer | Sale | 261 @ $178.58 | $47K | −2.0% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 2,251 @ $241.77 | $544K | −12.1% of holding | −14.8% | −35.9% | 16,278 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 1,843 @ $240.90 | $444K | −9.0% of holding | −14.8% | −35.9% | 18,529 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 1,023 @ $243.15 | $249K | −6.3% of holding | −14.8% | −35.9% | 15,255 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 435 @ $239.72 | $104K | −2.1% of holding | −14.8% | −35.9% | 20,372 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 288 @ $238.39 | $69K | −1.4% of holding | −14.8% | −35.9% | 20,807 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 217 @ $236.11 | $51K | −1.0% of holding | −14.8% | −35.9% | 21,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 5 @ $242.19 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −9.0% | −40.3% | 24,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 4 @ $243.16 | $973 | −0.0% of holding | −9.0% | −40.3% | 24,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 3 @ $244.48 | $733 | −0.0% of holding | −9.0% | −40.3% | 24,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 2 @ $235.76 | $472 | −0.0% of holding | −9.0% | −40.3% | 24,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 1,407 @ $242.41 | $341K | −5.8% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 22,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 1,046 @ $238.93 | $250K | −3.9% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 25,604 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 892 @ $240.04 | $214K | −3.5% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 24,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 643 @ $240.62 | $155K | −2.6% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 24,069 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 403 @ $248.70 | $100K | −1.9% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 21,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 384 @ $246.98 | $95K | −1.7% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 21,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 362 @ $244.50 | $89K | −1.6% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 22,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 232 @ $245.75 | $57K | −1.0% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 22,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Sale | 131 @ $249.75 | $33K | −0.6% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 21,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Sharma Manish | officer | Sale | 98 @ $250.36 | $25K | −1.9% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 5,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Sale | 15 @ $250.43 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −10.1% | −40.0% | 8,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $276.15 | $718K | −8.5% of holding | −23.9% | −41.4% | 28,083 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 524 @ $275.28 | $144K | −1.7% of holding | −23.9% | −41.4% | 30,683 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 429 @ $277.25 | $119K | −1.5% of holding | −23.9% | −41.4% | 27,654 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 421 @ $278.16 | $117K | −1.5% of holding | −23.9% | −41.4% | 27,233 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-27 | Walsh John F | officer | Sale | 12 @ $280.00 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −23.9% | −41.4% | 27,221 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Sale | 2,161 @ $281.76 | $609K | −20.5% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 8,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 514 @ $281.78 | $145K | −7.9% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 6,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Sale | 500 @ $279.64 | $140K | −4.4% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 10,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Sale | 397 @ $278.34 | $111K | −3.4% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 11,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Sale | 328 @ $280.59 | $92K | −3.0% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 10,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Sale | 263 @ $281.27 | $74K | −2.0% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 12,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Sale | 227 @ $282.01 | $64K | −1.8% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 12,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Sale | 202 @ $282.38 | $57K | −2.4% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 8,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 168 @ $280.00 | $47K | −2.5% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 6,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Sale | 107 @ $279.63 | $30K | −0.8% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 13,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 71 @ $276.62 | $20K | −1.0% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 6,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Sale | 62 @ $277.76 | $17K | −0.5% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 13,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 32 @ $278.24 | $9K | −0.5% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 6,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 2 @ $283.25 | $567 | −0.0% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 6,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Sale | 1 @ $283.25 | $283 | −0.0% of holding | −31.8% | −47.6% | 12,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 610 @ $281.57 | $172K | −2.2% of holding | −29.7% | −51.9% | 27,459 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 214 @ $282.44 | $60K | −0.8% of holding | −29.7% | −51.9% | 27,245 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 138 @ $280.22 | $39K | −0.5% of holding | −29.7% | −51.9% | 28,069 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Unruch Joel | officer | Sale | 64 @ $283.69 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −29.7% | −51.9% | 27,181 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 174 @ $281.38 | $49K | −2.4% of holding | −22.2% | −58.5% | 7,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 129 @ $282.60 | $36K | −1.8% of holding | −22.2% | −58.5% | 6,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 118 @ $276.84 | $33K | −1.6% of holding | −22.2% | −58.5% | 7,323 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 64 @ $284.84 | $18K | −0.9% of holding | −22.2% | −58.5% | 6,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Sale | 64 @ $278.38 | $18K | −0.9% of holding | −22.2% | −58.5% | 7,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
219 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Award / grant | 205 | 16,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Walsh John F | officer | Award / grant | 146 | 26,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Park Angie Y | officer | Award / grant | 145 | 13,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Unruch Joel | officer | Award / grant | 145 | 18,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Award / grant | 113 | 13,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Award / grant | 106 | 10,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Sharma Manish | officer | Award / grant | 97 | 5,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Award / grant | 92 | 6,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Award / grant | 50 | 13,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sarin Arun | director | Award / grant | 13 | 9,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Travis Tracey Thomas | director | Award / grant | 15 | 9,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Award / grant | 50 | 6,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Walsh John F | officer | Award / grant | 24 | 26,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Jope Alan C. | director | Award / grant | 14 | 3,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Award / grant | 23 | 9,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | RENDUCHINTALA VENKATA S M | director | Award / grant | 9 | 4,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Uotani Masahiko | director | Award / grant | 9 | 1,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Brudermueller Martin | director | Award / grant | 9 | 1,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Price Paula A | director | Award / grant | 14 | 8,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Park Angie Y | officer | Award / grant | 23 | 13,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sharma Manish | officer | Award / grant | 17 | 5,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | McKinstry Nancy | director | Award / grant | 12 | 8,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Unruch Joel | officer | Award / grant | 88 | 17,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Nason Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 9 | 932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Award / grant | 47 | 16,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Award / grant | 227 | 16,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unruch Joel | officer | Award / grant | 162 | 17,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Park Angie Y | officer | Award / grant | 162 | 13,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Walsh John F | officer | Award / grant | 161 | 26,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Award / grant | 126 | 13,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Award / grant | 117 | 9,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sharma Manish | officer | Award / grant | 107 | 5,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Clifford Katherine Lee | officer | Award / grant | 103 | 6,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Award / grant | 778 | 9,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Sweet Julie Spellman | director | Award / grant | 285 | 16,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Walsh John F | officer | Award / grant | 203 | 25,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Park Angie Y | officer | Award / grant | 202 | 13,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Unruch Joel | officer | Award / grant | 202 | 28,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hogan Catherine Kiernan | officer | Award / grant | 157 | 13,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Burgum Melissa A | officer | Award / grant | 147 | 8,726 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Richard W. Allen | House | sale | 2026-06-16 | 2026-05-08 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-06-12 | 2026-05-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.