Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.82 · now $64.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACMR has typically landed between $45.30 and $92.39 — a range of −30.1% to +42.5% from the issuance price $64.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,207 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-11-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACMR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $64.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.6 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.49–$75.7
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.3–$92.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,207 windows spanning 2017-11-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −58.8% | −58.8% | +2.0% |
| 2022-09-20 | −58.6% | −58.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-09-21 | −57.5% | −57.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-12-19 | +165.7% | −0.7% | +165.7% |
| 2019-12-18 | +131.6% | −1.5% | +131.6% |
| 2018-02-12 | +127.4% | −5.0% | +127.4% |
2,207 overlapping windows · 2017-11-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+23.7%
n=9
Feb
78%
+16.2%
n=9
Mar
33%
+3.0%
n=9
Apr
33%
−2.0%
n=9
May
78%
+17.8%
n=9
Jun
78%
+12.6%
n=9
Jul
67%
+3.8%
n=9
Aug
44%
−0.0%
n=9
Sep
44%
−0.7%
n=9
Oct
25%
−12.4%
n=8
Nov
63%
+7.8%
n=8
Dec
33%
+1.5%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 33,493 @ $73.80 | $2.5M | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 839,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 18,934 @ $74.67 | $1.4M | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 820,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 11,666 @ $75.58 | $882K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 808,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 4,807 @ $76.73 | $369K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 803,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $77.59 | $85K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 802,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 51,374 @ $77.15 | $4.0M | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 816,531 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 12,323 @ $78.08 | $962K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 804,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 4,803 @ $75.99 | $365K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 867,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $78.57 | $118K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 802,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 30,365 @ $77.45 | $2.4M | −71.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,109 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 13,625 @ $76.34 | $1.0M | −24.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 11,209 @ $77.89 | $873K | −92.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 3,400 @ $81.31 | $276K | −89.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $80.29 | $96K | −24.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 400 @ $82.17 | $33K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Sale | 2,384 @ $81.73 | $195K | −2.3% of holding | +27.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,017 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Sale | 1,647 @ $85.41 | $141K | −1.6% of holding | +27.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Sale | 968 @ $82.61 | $80K | −0.9% of holding | +27.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,049 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Sale | 400 @ $84.01 | $34K | −0.4% of holding | +27.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,649 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 17,543 @ $85.11 | $1.5M | −2.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 823,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 10,992 @ $86.07 | $946K | −1.3% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 812,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Sale | 9,212 @ $85.11 | $784K | −8.2% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,841 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 8,581 @ $87.13 | $748K | −1.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 803,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Sale | 2,839 @ $85.77 | $244K | −2.8% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 2,060 @ $83.86 | $173K | −0.2% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 840,650 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $84.08 | $109K | −1.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 826 @ $87.91 | $73K | −0.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 802,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 32,450 @ $89.84 | $2.9M | −3.8% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 819,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 9,925 @ $90.78 | $901K | −1.2% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 809,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 6,295 @ $88.98 | $560K | −0.7% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 852,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 5,843 @ $92.38 | $540K | −0.7% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 803,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 4,300 @ $87.57 | $377K | −0.5% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 858,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 1,187 @ $93.04 | $110K | −0.1% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 802,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 1,858 @ $67.54 | $125K | −100.0% of holding | +63.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 1,309 @ $67.21 | $88K | −41.3% of holding | +63.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 1,333 @ $63.84 | $85K | −26.7% of holding | +63.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 500 @ $65.09 | $33K | −13.6% of holding | +63.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Pappis Charles C | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $52.00 | $260K | −100.0% of holding | +21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 47,108 @ $45.74 | $2.2M | −96.2% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 1,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 38,737 @ $45.74 | $1.8M | −4.6% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 803,410 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 29,348 @ $45.74 | $1.3M | −95.2% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 1,464 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 11,910 @ $44.89 | $535K | −19.6% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 48,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 10,561 @ $44.92 | $474K | −1.2% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 842,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 8,639 @ $44.94 | $388K | −21.9% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 30,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 982 @ $46.55 | $46K | −52.2% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 702 @ $46.57 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 802,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Sale | 564 @ $46.57 | $26K | −38.5% of holding | +6.3% | +43.7% | 900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 55,373 @ $47.89 | $2.7M | −6.4% of holding | −0.3% | +38.5% | 807,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Liu Tracy | director | Sale | 11,623 @ $47.81 | $556K | −9.2% of holding | −0.3% | +38.5% | 114,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Wang David H | director | Sale | 4,627 @ $48.34 | $224K | −0.6% of holding | −0.3% | +38.5% | 802,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Liu Tracy | director | Sale | 3,377 @ $48.25 | $163K | −3.0% of holding | −0.3% | +38.5% | 110,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Liu Tracy | director | Sale | 32,216 @ $47.06 | $1.5M | −20.7% of holding | −2.9% | +40.4% | 123,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Liu Tracy | director | Sale | 12,784 @ $48.19 | $616K | −10.3% of holding | −2.9% | +40.4% | 110,772 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $43.37 | $178K | −82.0% of holding | −1.1% | +51.2% | 900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Dun Haiping | director | Sale | 900 @ $43.94 | $40K | −100.0% of holding | −1.1% | +51.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Feng Lisa | officer | Sale | 14,800 @ $46.07 | $682K | −22.8% of holding | −5.0% | +50.6% | 50,201 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Feng Lisa | officer | Sale | 200 @ $46.58 | $9K | −0.4% of holding | −5.0% | +50.6% | 50,001 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Feng Lisa | officer | Sale | 8,050 @ $49.81 | $401K | −12.4% of holding | −10.7% | +29.6% | 56,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Feng Lisa | officer | Sale | 6,950 @ $50.24 | $349K | −12.2% of holding | −10.7% | +29.6% | 50,001 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Pappis Charles C | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $50.09 | $250K | −100.0% of holding | −10.7% | +29.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 70,000 | 872,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 70,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 70,000 | 872,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 70,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 30,199 | 31,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 56,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 215,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 30,199 | 31,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Dun Haiping | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Dun Haiping | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Liu Tracy | director | Award / grant | 728 | 728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Liu Tracy | director | Award / grant | 6,400 | 6,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Dun Haiping | director | Award / grant | 6,400 | 6,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Dun Haiping | director | Award / grant | 728 | 728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Pappis Charles C | director | Award / grant | 6,400 | 6,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Pappis Charles C | director | Award / grant | 728 | 728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Option exercise | 5,399 | 105,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Option exercise | 5,399 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Option exercise | 13,351 | 113,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 40,002 | 842,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Cheav Sotheara | officer | Option exercise | 13,351 | 42,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 40,002 | 270,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 862,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 310,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Dun Haiping | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Dun Haiping | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wang David H | director | Award / grant | 6,208 | 6,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Pappis Charles C | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Pappis Charles C | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 60,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 38,551 | 39,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 852,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | McKechnie Mark | officer | Option exercise | 38,551 | 61,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 370,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 862,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Liu Tracy | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 125,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Liu Tracy | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Wang David H | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 420,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Liu Tracy | director | Option exercise | 45,000 | 155,772 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.