Issued 2026-09-16 at $62.81 · now $62.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACM has typically landed between $56.27 and $69.84 — a range of −10.4% to +11.2% from the issuance price $62.81.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,848 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-05-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($62.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $62.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $62.81 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $63.21 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.38–$66.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $56.27–$69.84
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −52.8% | −54.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −50.3% | −53.6% | +1.1% |
| 2020-02-18 | −49.6% | −49.6% | +9.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-06 | +86.8% | +0.0% | +86.8% |
| 2008-10-27 | +75.8% | +0.0% | +75.8% |
| 2008-11-07 | +74.2% | +0.0% | +80.7% |
4,848 overlapping windows · 2007-05-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Poloni Lara | officer | Purchase | 4,224 @ $70.63 | $298K | +2.8% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,446 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Rudd Troy | director | Purchase | 4,225 @ $71.02 | $300K | +3.1% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,207 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Purchase | 1,420 @ $71.12 | $101K | +1.6% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,053 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Poloni Lara | officer | Sale | 17,340 @ $97.01 | $1.7M | −10.4% of holding | −1.6% | −41.1% | 149,415 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Gan David Y. | officer | Sale | 9,502 @ $97.01 | $922K | −18.6% of holding | −1.6% | −41.1% | 41,549 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Poloni Lara | officer | Sale | 193 @ $98.35 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | −1.6% | −41.1% | 149,222 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Gan David Y. | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $98.85 | $593K | −10.5% of holding | −0.4% | −38.1% | 51,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Sale | 41,997 @ $119.41 | $5.0M | −79.1% of holding | +4.3% | −30.0% | 11,100 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Sale | 11,100 @ $120.12 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | +4.3% | −30.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Gan David Y. | officer | Sale | 3,036 @ $111.00 | $337K | −6.9% of holding | −0.1% | +1.2% | 41,015 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-17 | Gan David Y. | officer | Sale | 6,362 @ $110.19 | $701K | −12.6% of holding | +0.7% | +1.3% | 44,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Gan David Y. | officer | Sale | 7,549 @ $111.67 | $843K | −13.0% of holding | −0.2% | +0.6% | 50,413 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Gan David Y. | officer | Sale | 3,951 @ $111.05 | $439K | −6.4% of holding | −0.2% | +0.6% | 57,962 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Wolfenbarger Janet Carol | director | Award / grant | 2,002 | 38,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Buss Brad W | director | Award / grant | 2,002 | 28,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | KERR DEREK J | director | Award / grant | 2,002 | 3,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | van 't Noordende Alexander M | director | Award / grant | 2,002 | 12,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Pipes Kristy | director | Award / grant | 2,002 | 8,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Stotlar Douglas | director | Award / grant | 2,236 | 38,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Tishman Daniel R. | director | Award / grant | 2,002 | 23,677 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-23 | Rudd Troy | director | Gift | 600 | 259,756 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Withheld for tax | 48,556 | 123,837 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Withheld for tax | 16,940 | 86,633 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Poloni Lara | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,425 | 166,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Gan David Y. | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,530 | 57,051 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Award / grant | 86,581 | 172,393 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Gan David Y. | officer | Option exercise | 5,976 | 46,991 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Gan David Y. | officer | Award / grant | 6,534 | 53,525 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Gan David Y. | officer | Award / grant | 14,056 | 67,581 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Poloni Lara | officer | Option exercise | 10,040 | 140,231 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Poloni Lara | officer | Award / grant | 16,334 | 156,565 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Poloni Lara | officer | Award / grant | 23,615 | 180,180 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Award / grant | 49,000 | 85,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Option exercise | 36,812 | 36,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Award / grant | 22,490 | 103,573 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Option exercise | 9,562 | 65,974 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Award / grant | 15,109 | 81,083 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Gan David Y. | officer | Option exercise | 5,976 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Option exercise | 36,812 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Gan David Y. | officer | Option exercise | 5,976 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Poloni Lara | officer | Option exercise | 10,040 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Option exercise | 9,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Poloni Lara | officer | Option exercise | 10,040 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kapoor Gaurav | director | Option exercise | 9,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Option exercise | 36,812 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | Tishman Daniel R. | director | Gift | 27,935 | 21,675 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Option exercise | 53,097 | 53,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Rudd Troy | director | Option exercise | 53,097 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Buss Brad W | director | Award / grant | 1,675 | 26,511 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | KERR DEREK J | director | Award / grant | 1,675 | 4,106 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Stotlar Douglas | director | Award / grant | 1,900 | 36,567 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | van 't Noordende Alexander M | director | Award / grant | 1,675 | 10,421 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Wolfenbarger Janet Carol | director | Award / grant | 1,675 | 36,820 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.