Issued 2026-09-16 at $51.58 · now $51.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACIW has typically landed between $45.05 and $59.67 — a range of −12.7% to +15.7% from the issuance price $51.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($51.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACIW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $51.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $51.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $51.49 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $48.6–$54.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.05–$59.67
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −49.7% | −49.7% | +0.7% |
| 2008-09-25 | −46.9% | −46.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-16 | −45.5% | −45.5% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-27 | +65.0% | +0.0% | +73.7% |
| 2008-10-24 | +53.8% | −8.6% | +58.8% |
| 2022-12-19 | +40.6% | +0.0% | +40.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Benitez Juan II | director | Purchase | 2,400 @ $41.90 | $101K | +16.6% of holding | +2.3% | +11.1% | 16,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | SANCHEZ ADALIO T | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $40.98 | $123K | +4.9% of holding | +6.6% | +19.7% | 64,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Kuruvilla Abraham | officer | Sale | 4,210 @ $47.69 | $201K | −4.2% of holding | −2.3% | −23.6% | 96,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | ESTEP JANET O | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $44.66 | $201K | −5.5% of holding | −5.1% | −5.4% | 77,631 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Harman Mary P | director | Sale | 7,194 @ $47.48 | $342K | −17.3% of holding | −11.1% | −17.9% | 34,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Warsop Thomas W III | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $48.57 | $243K | +1.6% of holding | −6.6% | −20.2% | 326,922 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | PETERS CHARLES E JR | director | Sale | 12,940 @ $57.57 | $745K | −13.8% of holding | +6.8% | −21.2% | 80,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Behrens Scott W | officer | Sale | 60,749 @ $55.69 | $3.4M | −11.1% of holding | −2.3% | −18.3% | 487,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Kuruvilla Abraham | officer | Sale | 5,400 @ $55.71 | $301K | −6.2% of holding | −4.0% | −15.3% | 81,107 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
108 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Leibrock Robert William | officer | Disposition | 1,905 | 203,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Litch Erich J | officer | Disposition | 963 | 36,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 724 | 58,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 765 | 59,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Litch Erich J | officer | Disposition | 667 | 37,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 385 | 60,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Litch Erich J | officer | Disposition | 136 | 38,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Leibrock Robert William | officer | Disposition | 2,454 | 205,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Leibrock Robert William | officer | Disposition | 1,289 | 208,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Litch Erich J | officer | Disposition | 1,003 | 38,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 739 | 60,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 760 | 61,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Litch Erich J | officer | Disposition | 654 | 39,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 383 | 62,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Litch Erich J | officer | Disposition | 133 | 40,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | deBeers Kimberly A. | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 7,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Lamouche Didier R | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 8,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Harman Mary P | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 40,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Benitez Juan II | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 22,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | SANCHEZ ADALIO T | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 70,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Zabaneh Samir Michael | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 47,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Ford Todd R | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 8,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | MCCALLUM KATRINKA | director | Award / grant | 5,720 | 20,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Warsop Thomas W III | director | Disposition | 8,075 | 483,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 732 | 62,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 366 | 63,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Warsop Thomas W III | director | Disposition | 69,552 | 491,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 6,837 | 63,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Warsop Thomas W III | director | Award / grant | 176,755 | 560,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Award / grant | 13,894 | 70,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Leibrock Robert William | officer | Disposition | 2,148 | 209,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | deBeers Kimberly A. | director | Award / grant | 1,575 | 1,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Leibrock Robert William | officer | Award / grant | 49,354 | 211,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Warsop Thomas W III | director | Award / grant | 85,546 | 383,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Award / grant | 17,626 | 56,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Litch Erich J | officer | Award / grant | 23,502 | 40,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Warsop Thomas W III | director | Disposition | 12,268 | 307,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Warsop Thomas W III | director | Disposition | 8,762 | 298,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Litch Erich J | officer | Disposition | 724 | 17,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Shultz Ronald Craig | officer | Disposition | 690 | 38,734 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.