ACHV · TickerCove

ACHVAchieve Life Sciences, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.42 · now $7.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACHV has typically landed between $5.31 and $10.37 — a range of −28.4% to +39.7% from the issuance price $7.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,998 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.42 · 81% of range

$2.65 low$8.53 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.8%

typical move · IQR 24.9%

−28.4%worst (p90)+39.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ACHV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.42 (+0.0%)
typical $7.29 (-1.8%)
middle 50% $6.36–$8.21
90% range $5.31–$10.37

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,998 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2007-09-19	−88.4%	−88.4%	+0.0%
2007-09-20	−88.2%	−88.4%	+0.0%
2007-09-18	−87.4%	−87.4%	+0.9%
3 best
2009-04-23	+360.6%	+0.0%	+360.6%
2009-04-27	+300.0%	+0.0%	+328.4%
2009-05-13	+290.0%	+0.0%	+290.0%

4,998 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+8.8%

n=20

Feb

40%

+2.0%

n=20

Mar

45%

−0.4%

n=20

Apr

55%

+6.4%

n=20

May

45%

+6.5%

n=20

Jun

25%

−8.3%

n=20

Jul

50%

+5.2%

n=20

Aug

35%

−4.0%

n=20

Sep

40%

−13.0%

n=20

Oct

20%

−7.8%

n=20

Nov

60%

+2.3%

n=20

Dec

45%

−8.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Sale	20,626 @ $8.49	$175K	−9.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	208,249	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Sale	129,501 @ $2.92	$378K	−36.1% of holding	+45.7%	+40.6%	228,875	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-18	Oki Mark K	officer	Sale	50,060 @ $2.92	$146K	−28.1% of holding	+45.7%	+40.6%	127,940	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04	KING THOMAS BRAXTON	director	Sale	139,858 @ $2.77	$387K	−30.7% of holding	+9.5%	+48.9%	315,142	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04	JACOBS CINDY	director	Sale	27,629 @ $2.77	$77K	−19.3% of holding	+9.5%	+48.9%	115,585	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04	Xinos Jaime	officer	Sale	20,854 @ $2.77	$58K	−21.9% of holding	+9.5%	+48.9%	74,432	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04	Wan Jerry	officer	Sale	14,070 @ $2.77	$39K	−30.1% of holding	+9.5%	+48.9%	32,694	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-17	Oki Mark K	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $2.89	$29K	ownership Δ n/a	−20.9%	−11.2%	10,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $2.86	$29K	+19.7% of holding	−20.9%	−11.2%	60,876	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-27	Martin Christopher Nathan	director	Award / grant	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-27	Martin Christopher Nathan	director	Award / grant	16,700	16,700	Form 4
2026-07-27	Sellig Thomas	director	Award / grant	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-27	Sellig Thomas	director	Award / grant	16,700	16,700	Form 4
2026-07-27	Phelan Nancy R.	director	Award / grant	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-27	Royston Aaron	director	Award / grant	16,700	16,700	Form 4
2026-07-27	Phelan Nancy R.	director	Award / grant	16,700	16,700	Form 4
2026-07-27	Farrow Jeffrey S	director	Award / grant	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-27	Farrow Jeffrey S	director	Award / grant	16,700	16,700	Form 4
2026-07-27	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Award / grant	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-27	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Award / grant	16,700	16,700	Form 4
2026-07-27	Waldman Reid Alexander	director	Award / grant	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-07-27	Waldman Reid Alexander	director	Award / grant	16,700	16,700	Form 4
2026-07-27	Royston Aaron	director	Award / grant	25,000	25,000	Form 4
2026-05-29	Waldman Reid Alexander	director	Award / grant	47,250	47,250	Form 4
2026-05-29	Farrow Jeffrey S	director	Award / grant	47,250	47,250	Form 4
2026-05-11	Martin Christopher Nathan	director	Award / grant	47,250	47,250	Form 4
2026-04-18	Goldberg Andrew D.	director	Award / grant	1,800,965	1,800,965	Form 4
2026-04-18	Goldberg Andrew D.	director	Award / grant	3,601,929	3,601,929	Form 4
2026-04-18	Goldberg Andrew D.	director	Award / grant	11,706,270	11,706,270	Form 4
2026-01-28	Oki Mark K	officer	Award / grant	180,000	180,000	Form 4
2026-01-28	Rubinstein Mark Lawrence	officer	Award / grant	180,000	180,000	Form 4
2026-01-28	Wan Jerry	officer	Award / grant	70,300	70,300	Form 4
2026-01-28	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Award / grant	645,000	645,000	Form 4
2026-01-28	Donnelly Craig	officer	Award / grant	180,000	180,000	Form 4
2026-01-28	Xinos Jaime	officer	Award / grant	180,000	180,000	Form 4
2025-12-04	Atkisson Erik	officer	Award / grant	250,000	250,000	Form 4
2025-10-01	Donnelly Craig	officer	Award / grant	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2025-09-18	Oki Mark K	officer	Option exercise	168,000	178,000	Form 4
2025-09-18	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Option exercise	140,000	0	Form 4
2025-09-18	Oki Mark K	officer	Option exercise	168,000	0	Form 4
2025-09-18	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Option exercise	297,500	358,376	Form 4
2025-09-18	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Option exercise	157,500	0	Form 4
2025-09-04	Stewart Richard Alistair	director	Award / grant	157,500	0	Form 4
2025-09-04	Xinos Jaime	officer	Option exercise	49,000	0	Form 4
2025-09-04	Xinos Jaime	officer	Option exercise	20,000	80,000	Form 4
2025-09-04	JACOBS CINDY	director	Option exercise	110,000	143,214	Form 4
2025-09-04	JACOBS CINDY	director	Option exercise	84,000	0	Form 4
2025-09-04	JACOBS CINDY	director	Option exercise	26,000	104,000	Form 4
2025-09-04	KING THOMAS BRAXTON	director	Option exercise	455,000	455,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i