Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.22 · now $5.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACHR has typically landed between $3.72 and $8.01 — a range of −28.8% to +53.5% from the issuance price $5.22.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,420 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACHR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.05 (-3.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.23–$5.86
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.72–$8.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,420 windows spanning 2020-12-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-28 | −56.9% | −56.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-29 | −56.2% | −56.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-27 | −55.8% | −55.8% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-30 | +191.8% | −4.0% | +191.8% |
| 2024-11-06 | +157.9% | +0.0% | +198.1% |
| 2024-10-25 | +141.3% | +0.0% | +141.3% |
1,420 overlapping windows · 2020-12-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−3.1%
n=6
Feb
33%
+1.6%
n=6
Mar
17%
−2.9%
n=6
Apr
33%
−4.0%
n=6
May
50%
+10.9%
n=6
Jun
67%
−0.5%
n=6
Jul
50%
+17.2%
n=6
Aug
50%
−2.1%
n=6
Sep
17%
−13.1%
n=6
Oct
60%
−2.3%
n=5
Nov
60%
+39.1%
n=5
Dec
40%
−5.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $6.31 | $631K | −54.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 85,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 52,762 @ $6.41 | $338K | −22.2% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Lyon Benjamin | officer | Sale | 50,188 @ $6.41 | $322K | −52.5% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Rungta Harsh | officer | Sale | 13,880 @ $6.41 | $89K | −11.1% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 10,015 @ $6.41 | $64K | −4.7% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 202,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 3,754 @ $5.00 | $19K | −2.7% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,330 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 91,839 @ $5.95 | $547K | −5.9% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,462,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 48,169 @ $5.95 | $287K | −25.5% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Rungta Harsh | officer | Sale | 12,414 @ $5.95 | $74K | −12.5% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 9,860 @ $5.95 | $59K | −5.0% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 44,740 @ $6.06 | $271K | −2.8% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,554,153 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 39,967 @ $6.06 | $242K | −17.4% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,253 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $5.30 | $265K | −49.9% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,119 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $5.36 | $268K | −33.3% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,119 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 10,949 @ $6.27 | $69K | −2.8% of holding | −11.1% | −24.1% | 384,768 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 9,580 @ $6.27 | $60K | −0.7% of holding | −11.1% | −24.1% | 1,352,208 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 8,059 @ $6.27 | $51K | −5.1% of holding | −11.1% | −24.1% | 150,119 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 7,263 @ $6.27 | $46K | −3.9% of holding | −11.1% | −24.1% | 178,512 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 94,725 @ $6.46 | $612K | −6.6% of holding | −11.2% | −24.9% | 1,345,430 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 54,786 @ $6.46 | $354K | −12.7% of holding | −11.2% | −24.9% | 377,022 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 37,390 @ $6.46 | $242K | −21.1% of holding | −11.2% | −24.9% | 139,483 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Rungta Harsh | officer | Sale | 22,826 @ $6.46 | $147K | −25.9% of holding | −11.2% | −24.9% | 65,458 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 10,172 @ $6.46 | $66K | −5.6% of holding | −11.2% | −24.9% | 171,754 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 125,000 @ $8.00 | $1.0M | −8.9% of holding | −12.4% | −49.4% | 1,272,129 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 90,648 @ $7.49 | $679K | −6.1% of holding | +1.3% | −34.1% | 1,397,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 45,018 @ $7.49 | $337K | −11.9% of holding | +1.3% | −34.1% | 334,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 41,490 @ $7.49 | $311K | −33.1% of holding | +1.3% | −34.1% | 83,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 5,479 @ $7.49 | $41K | −3.3% of holding | +1.3% | −34.1% | 161,523 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 86,133 @ $9.83 | $847K | −6.1% of holding | −11.1% | −36.5% | 1,327,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 48,936 @ $9.83 | $481K | −50.7% of holding | −11.1% | −36.5% | 47,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 42,775 @ $9.83 | $420K | −12.7% of holding | −11.1% | −36.5% | 295,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 10,224 @ $9.83 | $100K | −6.5% of holding | −11.1% | −36.5% | 147,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 95,896 @ $10.60 | $1.0M | −100.0% of holding | −9.1% | −41.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 80,919 @ $12.99 | $1.1M | −6.1% of holding | −26.0% | −54.5% | 1,253,294 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Mesler Mark | officer | Sale | 50,775 @ $12.99 | $659K | −6.7% of holding | −26.0% | −54.5% | 711,525 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 45,974 @ $12.99 | $597K | −32.4% of holding | −26.0% | −54.5% | 95,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 40,186 @ $12.99 | $522K | −13.5% of holding | −26.0% | −54.5% | 256,799 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 13,210 @ $12.99 | $172K | −9.0% of holding | −26.0% | −54.5% | 134,104 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-01 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $8.47 | $424K | −19.0% of holding | +8.6% | +6.8% | 212,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 52,958 @ $7.04 | $373K | −4.3% of holding | +18.0% | +15.0% | 1,173,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 50,004 @ $7.04 | $352K | −52.4% of holding | +18.0% | +15.0% | 45,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Mesler Mark | officer | Sale | 34,498 @ $7.04 | $243K | −5.0% of holding | +18.0% | +15.0% | 659,357 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 33,335 @ $7.04 | $235K | −11.3% of holding | +18.0% | +15.0% | 262,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 53,225 @ $8.19 | $436K | −100.0% of holding | −7.0% | −8.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Muniz Thomas Paul | officer | Sale | 99,224 @ $7.70 | $764K | −8.1% of holding | −7.9% | −7.1% | 1,131,443 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Mesler Mark | officer | Sale | 62,258 @ $7.70 | $479K | −9.0% of holding | −7.9% | −7.1% | 630,243 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Perkins Tosha | officer | Sale | 49,273 @ $7.70 | $379K | −17.5% of holding | −7.9% | −7.1% | 232,396 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Lentell Eric | officer | Sale | 43,230 @ $7.70 | $333K | −44.8% of holding | −7.9% | −7.1% | 53,225 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Gupta Priya | officer | Sale | 16,192 @ $7.70 | $125K | −12.1% of holding | −7.9% | −7.1% | 117,721 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
251 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 8,946 | 53,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gupta Priya | officer | Option exercise | 6,524 | 32,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gupta Priya | officer | Option exercise | 3,583 | 7,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gupta Priya | officer | Option exercise | 10,291 | 212,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gupta Priya | officer | Option exercise | 6,524 | 202,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gupta Priya | officer | Option exercise | 3,583 | 195,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 7,301 | 73,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 15,437 | 138,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lyon Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 54,383 | 54,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lyon Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 41,164 | 95,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lyon Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 54,383 | 326,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lyon Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 41,164 | 370,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 22,866 | 160,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 19,797 | 179,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 8,946 | 188,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 26,096 | 215,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 15,437 | 230,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 7,301 | 237,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 22,866 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 19,797 | 39,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lentell Eric | officer | Option exercise | 26,096 | 130,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Rungta Harsh | officer | Option exercise | 12,412 | 124,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Rungta Harsh | officer | Option exercise | 21,754 | 130,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Rungta Harsh | officer | Option exercise | 12,412 | 124,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Rungta Harsh | officer | Option exercise | 21,754 | 112,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gupta Priya | officer | Option exercise | 10,291 | 92,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Pinelli Maria | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 201,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Spellacy Michael | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Spellacy Michael | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 73,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Diaz Deborah | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 40,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Diaz Deborah | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Diaz Deborah | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 172,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Diaz Fred M | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 40,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Diaz Fred M | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Diaz Fred M | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 126,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | MUNOZ OSCAR | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 40,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | MUNOZ OSCAR | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | MUNOZ OSCAR | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 461,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Pinelli Maria | director | Option exercise | 19,102 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Pinelli Maria | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 40,983 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.