ACHCAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.16 · now $28.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACHC has typically landed between $22.34 and $33.15 — a range of −20.7% to +17.7% from the issuance price $28.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ACHC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.34worst · -20.7%$33.15best · +17.7%
  • now $28.16 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.96 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.02–$29.91
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.34–$33.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−66.3%−66.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−65.2%−65.2%+2.8%
2020-02-20−64.1%−66.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+100.5%−0.5%+100.5%
2026-02-04+89.1%−1.3%+89.1%
2026-02-06+88.0%+0.0%+91.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+3.3%
n=20
Feb
65%
+4.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Apr
50%
+2.2%
n=20
May
60%
+4.5%
n=20
Jun
50%
+2.9%
n=20
Jul
45%
+1.6%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
35%
−2.2%
n=20
Oct
40%
−4.8%
n=20
Nov
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$36$12↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-26Farley BrianofficerWithheld for tax1,770135,982Form 4
2026-06-26Farley BrianofficerWithheld for tax1,370137,752Form 4
2026-05-06GRIECO WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant6,33196,212Form 4
2026-05-06Harris Patrice AdirectorAward / grant6,33117,914Form 4
2026-05-06Gregg Vicky BdirectorAward / grant6,33142,628Form 4
2026-05-06Bissell E. PerotdirectorAward / grant6,33151,986Form 4
2026-05-06Bissell E. PerotdirectorAward / grant5,50057,486Form 4
2026-05-06WAUD REEVE BdirectorAward / grant6,33166,283Form 4
2026-05-06WAUD REEVE BdirectorAward / grant9,57675,859Form 4
2026-05-06Bernhard JasondirectorAward / grant6,33140,235Form 4
2026-05-06KELLY RALPH DAVIDdirectorAward / grant6,33126,358Form 4
2026-05-06Cancelmi Daniel JdirectorAward / grant6,33112,956Form 4
2026-05-06Fucci MichaeldirectorAward / grant6,33128,152Form 4
2026-05-06Bernhard JasondirectorAward / grant5,12445,359Form 4
2026-05-05Farley BrianofficerWithheld for tax5,063139,122Form 4
2026-04-28Farley BrianofficerAward / grant37,510144,185Form 4
2026-04-10Farley BrianofficerAward / grant37,510106,675Form 4
2026-04-10YOUNG TODD S.officerAward / grant58,799107,244Form 4
2026-03-12Cancelmi Daniel JdirectorAward / grant6,6256,625Form 4
2026-02-27Farley BrianofficerWithheld for tax1,91569,165Form 4
2026-01-20OSTEEN DEBRA KdirectorAward / grant1,125,0001,125,000Form 4
2025-10-27YOUNG TODD S.officerAward / grant48,44548,445Form 4
2025-09-30Khan NasserofficerWithheld for tax97355,023Form 4
2025-07-26Farley BrianofficerWithheld for tax1,09571,080Form 4
2025-07-25Dixon Heather BriannedirectorWithheld for tax2,410118,581Form 4
2025-06-26HUNTER CHRISTOPHER H.directorWithheld for tax5,464258,530Form 4
2025-06-26Dixon Heather BriannedirectorWithheld for tax1,508120,991Form 4
2025-06-26Farley BrianofficerWithheld for tax84772,175Form 4
2025-05-29Harris Patrice AdirectorAward / grant7,03211,583Form 4
2025-05-29WAUD REEVE BdirectorAward / grant7,03249,315Form 4
2025-05-29WAUD REEVE BdirectorAward / grant10,63759,952Form 4
2025-05-29Miquelon Wade DdirectorAward / grant7,03255,520Form 4
2025-05-29Bissell E. PerotdirectorAward / grant7,03245,655Form 4
2025-05-29Bernhard JasondirectorAward / grant7,03229,421Form 4
2025-05-29Bernhard JasondirectorAward / grant4,48333,904Form 4
2025-05-29KELLY RALPH DAVIDdirectorAward / grant7,03215,104Form 4
2025-05-29KELLY RALPH DAVIDdirectorAward / grant4,92320,027Form 4
2025-05-29Fucci MichaeldirectorAward / grant7,03221,821Form 4
2025-05-29GRIECO WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant7,03285,486Form 4
2025-05-29GRIECO WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant4,39589,881Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.