Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.07 · now $1.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACH has typically landed between $0.73 and $1.36 — a range of −32.1% to +27.3% from the issuance price $1.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.04 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.9161–$1.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.7265–$1.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-16 | −74.8% | −74.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-15 | −69.7% | −69.7% | +4.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | −69.2% | −72.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-08-06 | +142.6% | +0.0% | +142.6% |
| 2020-06-26 | +127.7% | +0.0% | +127.7% |
| 2020-07-02 | +125.7% | −1.1% | +131.0% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Galloway Heath H | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,822 | 166,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Pesicka Edward A | director | Withheld for tax | 17,692 | 1,072,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Bernocchi Perry A | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,908 | 313,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leon Jonathan A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,770 | 290,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Galloway Heath H | officer | Withheld for tax | 966 | 168,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Klemash Stephen W | director | Award / grant | 31,191 | 90,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Beck Mark A | director | Award / grant | 31,191 | 71,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Bingham Gwendolyn M | director | Award / grant | 31,191 | 80,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Gardner-Smith Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 31,191 | 86,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kline Teresa L. | director | Award / grant | 31,191 | 85,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Pesicka Edward A | director | Withheld for tax | 58,945 | 1,090,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Bernocchi Perry A | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,841 | 321,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Leon Jonathan A | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,286 | 292,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Galloway Heath H | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,347 | 169,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Galloway Heath H | officer | Award / grant | 61,437 | 178,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Leon Jonathan A | officer | Award / grant | 85,067 | 303,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Bernocchi Perry A | officer | Award / grant | 108,696 | 342,662 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.