ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.Financial Services · Insurance - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $96.97 · now $96.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACGL has typically landed between $88.78 and $107.21 — a range of −8.5% to +10.6% from the issuance price $96.97.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($96.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ACGL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $96.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$88.78worst · -8.5%$107.21best · +10.6%
  • now $96.97 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $98.58 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $94.36–$102.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $88.78–$107.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−50.6%−50.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−45.8%−45.8%+0.0%
2020-02-24−43.9%−49.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06+49.3%−5.0%+49.3%
2020-05-07+44.3%−10.0%+44.3%
2020-05-05+38.1%−6.3%+38.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$36.1B
market cap
$13.02
EPS (TTM)
7.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$19.9B
'20'25
Net income$4.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$6.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr22.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr18.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.11
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $96.97$72.42$428.46
  • DCF (intrinsic)$403.90
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$213.29
  • Analyst target · range $102.00–$126.00$105.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$96.97

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
74%
+2.7%
n=19
Mar
68%
+0.5%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.3%
n=19
May
47%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
68%
+2.8%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.9%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.0%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$106$852026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Morin Francois2026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $59K — Posner Brian S2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $34K — Posner Brian S2026-04-30: 1 insider purchase, $499K — Houston Daniel Joseph2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $51K — Posner Brian S2026-03-10: 2 insider sales, $2.7M — Papadopoulo Nicolas, Gansberg David2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $4.6M — Rajeh Maamoun2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $829K — PASQUESI JOHN M2025-12-12: 2 insider sales, $19.1M — PASQUESI JOHN M …2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $757K — Morin Francois2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $941K — Rajeh Maamoun2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $17K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $941K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $757K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $20.0M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $4.6M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $499K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $34K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $59K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Morin Francois — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Posner Brian S — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Posner Brian S — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Houston Daniel Joseph — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Posner Brian S — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Papadopoulo Nicolas — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gansberg David — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rajeh Maamoun — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector PASQUESI JOHN M — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PASQUESI JOHN M — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector PASQUESI JOHN M — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Morin Francois — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rajeh Maamoun — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Morin FrancoisofficerSale11,010 @ $99.32$1.1M−5.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open184,826Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-03Posner Brian SdirectorSale3,000 @ $19.66$59K−100.0% of holding+16.0%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Posner Brian SdirectorSale2,000 @ $17.14$34K−100.0% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-30Houston Daniel JosephdirectorPurchase5,300 @ $94.08$499K+114.8% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open9,915Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11Posner Brian SdirectorSale3,000 @ $17.11$51K−60.0% of holding+0.5%−11.2%2,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Papadopoulo NicolasdirectorSale21,930 @ $96.31$2.1M−2.5% of holding+2.1%−13.3%871,594Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Gansberg DavidofficerSale5,907 @ $96.37$569K−1.7% of holding+2.1%−13.3%336,559Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11Rajeh MaamounofficerSale47,430 @ $96.12$4.6M−9.9% of holding−0.9%−13.6%433,589Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorSale8,800 @ $94.17$829K−2.9% of holding−7.0%−13.0%289,556Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorSale175,000 @ $93.91$16.4M−33.2% of holding−4.4%−12.1%351,356Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorSale28,866 @ $93.81$2.7M−5.2% of holding−4.4%−12.1%526,356Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-28Morin FrancoisofficerSale8,000 @ $94.62$757K−2.9% of holding+2.1%−18.5%266,681Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22Rajeh MaamounofficerSale10,000 @ $94.15$941K−2.3% of holding−8.4%−1.0%433,589Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-01Posner Brian SdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.34$17K+25.0% of holding+0.8%−2.6%5,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16Morin FrancoisofficerSale12,630 @ $94.58$1.2M−4.4% of holding−5.3%−15.9%274,681Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorSale23,996 @ $94.72$2.3M−4.1% of holding−4.5%−20.0%555,222Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorSale75,060 @ $94.01$7.1M−11.5% of holding−8.7%−22.7%579,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09PETRILLO LOUIS TofficerSale16,650 @ $94.53$1.6M−10.6% of holding−11.9%−24.8%140,023Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02Papadopoulo NicolasdirectorSale7,636 @ $92.48$706K−1.0% of holding−1.6%−27.7%795,718Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05PETRILLO LOUIS TofficerSale11,600 @ $91.00$1.1M−7.7% of holding+13.1%−11.0%140,023Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04PETRILLO LOUIS TofficerSale9,400 @ $92.73$872K−6.3% of holding+7.2%−11.1%140,023Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

156 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Morin FrancoisofficerOption exercise11,010195,836Form 4
2026-08-18Morin FrancoisofficerOption exercise11,0100Form 4
2026-06-11PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorGift1,006,700214,993Form 4
2026-06-11PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorGift1,006,7002,827,681Form 4
2026-05-05Posner Brian SdirectorAward / grant2,071122,175Form 4
2026-05-05MALLESCH EILEEN AdirectorAward / grant2,07113,802Form 4
2026-05-05MOCZARSKI ALEXANDER SdirectorAward / grant2,0714,037Form 4
2026-05-05Goodman LauriedirectorAward / grant2,07137,573Form 4
2026-05-05Houston Daniel JosephdirectorAward / grant2,07111,986Form 4
2026-05-05Houston Daniel JosephdirectorAward / grant1,32713,313Form 4
2026-05-05KILCOYNE MOIRA A.directorAward / grant2,07134,515Form 4
2026-05-05KILCOYNE MOIRA A.directorAward / grant1,32735,842Form 4
2026-05-05Ebong FrancisdirectorAward / grant2,07112,878Form 4
2026-05-05Triplett Neal FdirectorAward / grant2,0716,686Form 4
2026-05-05Triplett Neal FdirectorAward / grant1,3278,013Form 4
2026-05-05BUNCE JOHN L JRdirectorAward / grant2,0711,561,740Form 4
2026-05-05BUNCE JOHN L JRdirectorAward / grant1,3271,563,067Form 4
2026-05-05PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorAward / grant2,0712,071Form 4
2026-05-05PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorAward / grant1,327292,447Form 4
2026-05-05PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorAward / grant1,858294,305Form 4
2026-05-05Posner Brian SdirectorAward / grant2,071122,175Form 4
2026-05-05Triplett Neal FdirectorAward / grant2,0716,686Form 4
2026-05-05Triplett Neal FdirectorAward / grant1,3278,013Form 4
2026-05-05BUNCE JOHN L JRdirectorAward / grant1,3271,563,067Form 4
2026-05-05Ebong FrancisdirectorAward / grant2,07112,878Form 4
2026-05-05Goodman LauriedirectorAward / grant2,07137,573Form 4
2026-05-05BUNCE JOHN L JRdirectorAward / grant2,0711,561,740Form 4
2026-05-05PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorAward / grant2,0712,071Form 4
2026-05-05PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorAward / grant1,327292,447Form 4
2026-05-05PASQUESI JOHN MdirectorAward / grant1,858294,305Form 4
2026-05-05Houston Daniel JosephdirectorAward / grant2,07111,986Form 4
2026-05-05Houston Daniel JosephdirectorAward / grant1,32713,313Form 4
2026-05-05KILCOYNE MOIRA A.directorAward / grant2,07134,515Form 4
2026-05-05KILCOYNE MOIRA A.directorAward / grant1,32735,842Form 4
2026-05-05MALLESCH EILEEN AdirectorAward / grant2,07113,802Form 4
2026-03-10Papadopoulo NicolasdirectorOption exercise21,930893,524Form 4
2026-03-10Gansberg DavidofficerOption exercise10,770342,466Form 4
2026-03-10Gansberg DavidofficerOption exercise10,7700Form 4
2026-03-10Papadopoulo NicolasdirectorOption exercise21,9300Form 4
2026-03-04Gansberg DavidofficerWithheld for tax12,519331,696Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.