Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.51 · now $11.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACEL has typically landed between $9.94 and $13.13 — a range of −13.6% to +14.1% from the issuance price $11.51.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,256 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-08-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.51 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.54 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.94–$12.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.94–$13.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,256 windows spanning 2017-08-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −57.1% | −57.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −55.9% | −56.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −54.0% | −54.0% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-08-04 | +68.2% | +0.0% | +68.2% |
| 2020-08-05 | +61.0% | +0.0% | +66.3% |
| 2020-08-03 | +55.0% | +0.0% | +58.3% |
2,256 overlapping windows · 2017-08-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+1.8%
n=9
Feb
67%
+2.8%
n=9
Mar
22%
−6.1%
n=9
Apr
67%
+5.9%
n=9
May
67%
−0.0%
n=9
Jun
67%
+1.3%
n=9
Jul
56%
+2.5%
n=9
Aug
33%
+1.8%
n=9
Sep
40%
−3.4%
n=10
Oct
22%
−1.0%
n=9
Nov
67%
+1.2%
n=9
Dec
56%
+1.4%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 13,162 @ $11.60 | $153K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 157,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 26,324 @ $11.63 | $306K | −13.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 170,929 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $12.64 | $190K | −0.4% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,857,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Phelan Mark T. | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $13.00 | $325K | −9.4% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 241,464 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $13.00 | $260K | −9.6% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,827 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $12.09 | $302K | −0.6% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,875,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | WARDINSKI BRUCE D | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $11.55 | $578K | ownership Δ n/a | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 7,985 @ $11.55 | $92K | −47.0% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 4,946 @ $11.55 | $57K | −100.0% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 28,618 @ $11.34 | $325K | −62.8% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,985 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 17,728 @ $11.34 | $201K | −78.2% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,946 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $11.05 | $497K | −1.1% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,911,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 3,938 @ $11.23 | $44K | −0.1% of holding | +1.4% | −8.8% | 3,956,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 36,062 @ $11.21 | $404K | −0.9% of holding | +0.8% | −10.2% | 3,960,306 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $11.39 | $228K | −10.0% of holding | −1.3% | −13.4% | 179,963 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 133,774 @ $11.37 | $1.5M | −85.5% of holding | −0.2% | −12.9% | 22,674 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 39,169 @ $11.37 | $446K | −46.2% of holding | −0.2% | −12.9% | 45,603 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 3,766 @ $11.37 | $43K | −100.0% of holding | −0.2% | −12.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 119,248 @ $11.38 | $1.4M | −43.3% of holding | +1.3% | −11.3% | 156,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 35,446 @ $11.38 | $403K | −29.5% of holding | +1.3% | −11.3% | 84,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 3,212 @ $11.38 | $37K | −46.0% of holding | +1.3% | −11.3% | 3,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 2,655 @ $11.46 | $30K | −84.3% of holding | +1.3% | −11.3% | 495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 176,171 @ $11.48 | $2.0M | −56.1% of holding | +1.7% | −11.1% | 137,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $11.53 | $115K | −100.0% of holding | +1.7% | −11.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 2,250 @ $11.46 | $26K | −90.0% of holding | +1.7% | −11.1% | 250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 2,092 @ $11.45 | $24K | −1.0% of holding | +1.7% | −11.1% | 199,963 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 228,262 @ $11.37 | $2.6M | −42.1% of holding | +1.5% | −11.6% | 313,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 60,952 @ $11.75 | $716K | −10.1% of holding | −1.7% | −13.6% | 542,165 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.04 | $138K | −3.6% of holding | +2.6% | −5.7% | 338,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.04 | $138K | −5.9% of holding | +2.6% | −5.7% | 198,135 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.58 | $145K | −5.6% of holding | −4.7% | −2.0% | 210,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.58 | $145K | −3.4% of holding | −4.7% | −2.0% | 350,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $11.50 | $58K | −2.5% of holding | −3.2% | +4.9% | 194,917 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $11.50 | $58K | −2.4% of holding | −3.5% | +8.5% | 199,917 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.20 | $140K | −5.3% of holding | +1.4% | +3.8% | 223,135 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.19 | $140K | −3.3% of holding | +1.4% | +3.8% | 363,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $11.11 | $111K | −4.7% of holding | +1.4% | +3.8% | 204,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.01 | $138K | −5.0% of holding | +2.0% | +9.2% | 235,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.01 | $138K | −3.2% of holding | +2.0% | +9.2% | 375,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $10.31 | $464K | −1.1% of holding | +9.9% | +2.1% | 3,898,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.11 | $139K | −3.1% of holding | −6.6% | −3.2% | 388,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.11 | $139K | −4.8% of holding | −6.6% | −3.2% | 248,135 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.10 | $139K | −4.6% of holding | −4.9% | −9.0% | 260,635 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.10 | $139K | −3.0% of holding | −4.9% | −9.0% | 400,526 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 2,510 @ $12.52 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | −11.7% | −19.9% | 3,948,424 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 17,000 @ $12.49 | $212K | −0.4% of holding | −11.6% | −21.1% | 3,950,934 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.08 | $196K | −0.4% of holding | −13.3% | −23.1% | 3,967,934 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-21 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $12.55 | $188K | −0.4% of holding | −14.3% | −20.2% | 3,982,934 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $12.09 | $151K | −2.9% of holding | −9.4% | −18.7% | 413,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $12.09 | $151K | −4.4% of holding | −9.4% | −18.7% | 273,135 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $11.50 | $58K | −2.4% of holding | +4.8% | −17.0% | 202,880 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.30 | $141K | −4.2% of holding | +4.6% | −13.4% | 285,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.30 | $141K | −2.9% of holding | +4.6% | −13.4% | 425,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Harmer Derek | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $11.36 | $57K | −2.3% of holding | +4.6% | −13.4% | 207,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Sale | 3,791 @ $11.50 | $44K | −45.5% of holding | +0.6% | −23.2% | 4,534 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 29,000 @ $11.24 | $326K | −67.3% of holding | +4.0% | −22.3% | 14,117 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 29,000 @ $11.24 | $326K | −4.6% of holding | +4.0% | −22.3% | 603,117 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Sale | 25,883 @ $11.10 | $287K | −37.5% of holding | +4.4% | −22.4% | 43,117 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $11.13 | $278K | −0.6% of holding | +2.0% | −23.5% | 3,999,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.73 | $147K | −2.8% of holding | −6.9% | −27.3% | 438,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
229 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Phelan Mark T. | officer | Award / grant | 55,229 | 55,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Award / grant | 335,516 | 335,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Withheld for tax | 151,219 | 4,053,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Disposition | 173,416 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Option exercise | 346,831 | 4,204,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Option exercise | 346,831 | 173,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Harmer Derek | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,907 | 197,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Harmer Derek | officer | Option exercise | 13,333 | 201,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Harmer Derek | officer | Option exercise | 13,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Levin Scott D | officer | Award / grant | 24,956 | 24,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Levin Scott D | officer | Award / grant | 16,222 | 16,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Phelan Mark T. | officer | Award / grant | 41,313 | 41,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Summerer Brett Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 4,629 | 4,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Summerer Brett Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 6,612 | 6,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Option exercise | 1,875 | 5,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Withheld for tax | 550 | 18,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Option exercise | 1,875 | 18,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Gift | 1,500 | 3,872,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Harmer Derek | officer | Award / grant | 42,085 | 42,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Award / grant | 16,851 | 16,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Award / grant | 78,930 | 78,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Gift | 1,500 | 3,874,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Gift | 2,225 | 3,900,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Gift | 4,200 | 3,903,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Rubenstein Andrew H. | director | Gift | 4,000 | 3,907,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Option exercise | 4,902 | 4,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,437 | 16,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kozlik Christen | officer | Option exercise | 4,902 | 18,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Gift | 9,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Robinson Dee M | director | Award / grant | 6,904 | 6,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Rubenstein Gordon | director | Award / grant | 27,829 | 27,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Award / grant | 13,914 | 13,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ruttenberg David W. | director | Award / grant | 8,091 | 8,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Rotman Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 13,914 | 13,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Rotman Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 6,156 | 6,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Peterson Karl Mr. | director | Award / grant | 26,808 | 26,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Philips Kathleen | director | Award / grant | 13,914 | 13,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Philips Kathleen | director | Award / grant | 9,938 | 9,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Kondra Cheryl | director | Award / grant | 13,914 | 13,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Kondra Cheryl | director | Award / grant | 9,498 | 9,498 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.