Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.84 · now $4.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACDC has typically landed between $3.40 and $6.44 — a range of −29.8% to +33.1% from the issuance price $4.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,068 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-05-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ACDC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.77 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.19–$5.35
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.4–$6.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,068 windows spanning 2022-05-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-07-17 | −56.2% | −56.6% | +1.2% |
| 2025-07-16 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +4.3% |
| 2025-07-15 | −53.4% | −53.4% | +5.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-08 | +119.3% | +0.0% | +122.9% |
| 2025-05-09 | +115.2% | +0.0% | +115.2% |
| 2025-05-07 | +110.2% | −5.7% | +110.2% |
1,068 overlapping windows · 2022-05-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
25%
+2.5%
n=4
Feb
25%
−4.4%
n=4
Mar
75%
−0.2%
n=4
Apr
25%
−12.1%
n=4
May
75%
+28.6%
n=4
Jun
20%
−7.0%
n=5
Jul
60%
+0.2%
n=5
Aug
40%
−10.1%
n=5
Sep
0%
−7.5%
n=5
Oct
50%
+16.6%
n=4
Nov
50%
+2.5%
n=4
Dec
75%
+1.9%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Wilks Dan H. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,820 @ $4.81 | $148K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 88,107,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,820 @ $4.81 | $148K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 83,816,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 363,757 @ $4.70 | $1.7M | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 83,785,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Wilks Dan H. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 363,757 @ $4.70 | $1.7M | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 88,076,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 212,650 @ $4.74 | $1.0M | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 83,421,658 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Wilks Dan H. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 212,650 @ $4.74 | $1.0M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,712,845 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Wilks Dan H. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 202,331 @ $5.44 | $1.1M | +0.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,500,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 22,481 @ $5.44 | $122K | +4.7% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Wilks Dan H. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 517,669 @ $4.86 | $2.5M | +0.6% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,297,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 57,519 @ $4.86 | $279K | +13.6% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 479,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $3.78 | $95K | +6.6% of holding | +3.4% | +47.1% | 403,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 18,297 @ $3.83 | $70K | +4.5% of holding | +3.4% | +47.1% | 422,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,500,000 @ $4.00 | $10.0M | +3.1% of holding | +3.2% | +49.5% | 82,389,657 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Wilks Farris | director | Purchase | 2,500,000 @ $4.00 | $10.0M | +214.6% of holding | +3.2% | +49.5% | 3,665,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 207,163 @ $6.25 | $1.3M | +0.3% of holding | +71.2% | −51.4% | 79,855,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 390,253 @ $6.10 | $2.4M | +0.5% of holding | +54.3% | −55.6% | 79,648,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,584 @ $6.12 | $144K | +0.0% of holding | +47.2% | −54.9% | 79,258,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 728 @ $4.93 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | +56.3% | −42.4% | 79,234,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 647 @ $4.94 | $3K | +0.2% of holding | +56.3% | −42.4% | 378,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-12 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 69,176 @ $4.85 | $336K | +22.4% of holding | +89.8% | −36.4% | 378,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | THRC Holdings, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,599 @ $4.85 | $114K | +0.0% of holding | +89.8% | −36.4% | 79,234,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 15,441 @ $4.39 | $68K | +5.3% of holding | +108.4% | −5.3% | 308,977 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 4,780 @ $4.08 | $20K | +1.7% of holding | +108.4% | −5.3% | 293,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Wilks Farris | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $1000.00 | $1.0M | −5.0% of holding | −30.4% | −66.8% | 19,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1000.00 | $1.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −30.4% | −66.8% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Wilks Farris | director | Purchase | 338,756 @ $6.93 | $2.3M | +34.6% of holding | +23.9% | −48.9% | 1,316,534 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Wilks Matthew | director | Purchase | 288,756 @ $6.93 | $2.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +23.9% | −48.9% | 288,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Disposition | 370,883 | 85,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Wilks Farris | director | Other acquisition | 1,071,454 | 1,071,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Wilks Dan H. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,071,454 | 86,743,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | HADDOCK GERALD W | director | Award / grant | 22,421 | 109,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Rinaldi Matthew Daniel | director | Award / grant | 22,421 | 22,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | GLEBOCKI THERESA | director | Award / grant | 22,421 | 94,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Nieuwoudt Stacy Durbin | director | Award / grant | 22,421 | 100,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Krylov Sergei | director | Award / grant | 22,421 | 95,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 267,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Henry Michael S | officer | Award / grant | 39,188 | 60,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Harbour Austin | officer | Award / grant | 270,000 | 370,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Award / grant | 287,500 | 455,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Wilks Matthew | director | Award / grant | 287,500 | 1,788,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Scrogham Steven | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 233,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Spriggs Jeremy | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilks Matthew | director | Disposition | 8,254 | 1,503,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Disposition | 7,673 | 170,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Disposition | 7,564 | 126,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Disposition | 5,330 | 121,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,151 | 117,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilks Matthew | director | Withheld for tax | 2,658 | 1,500,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Withheld for tax | 2,470 | 168,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wilks Matthew | director | Disposition | 23,165 | 1,526,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wilks Matthew | director | Disposition | 21,363 | 1,549,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Disposition | 21,306 | 192,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Disposition | 19,650 | 213,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Harbour Austin | officer | Disposition | 19,624 | 130,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Harbour Austin | officer | Disposition | 18,247 | 112,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Scrogham Steven | officer | Disposition | 12,429 | 102,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Disposition | 12,429 | 155,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Disposition | 11,462 | 167,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Scrogham Steven | officer | Disposition | 11,462 | 115,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Disposition | 8,762 | 146,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Scrogham Steven | officer | Disposition | 7,830 | 95,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Disposition | 5,366 | 179,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Scrogham Steven | officer | Disposition | 5,366 | 126,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wilks Matthew | director | Withheld for tax | 14,477 | 1,511,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wilks Johnathan Ladd | director | Withheld for tax | 13,895 | 178,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Scrogham Steven | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,938 | 83,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greenwood Matthew A | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,238 | 134,350 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.