ACAArcosa, Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Infrastructure Operationsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $145.14 · now $145.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ACA has typically landed between $127.58 and $167.73 — a range of −12.1% to +15.6% from the issuance price $145.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,958 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($145.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ACA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $145.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$127.58worst · -12.1%$167.73best · +15.6%
  • now $145.14 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $147.38 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $138.88–$155.88
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $127.58–$167.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,958 windows spanning 2018-10-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−35.4%−35.4%+0.0%
2020-02-19−32.2%−32.7%+1.9%
2020-02-20−31.7%−33.9%+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-14+44.8%+0.0%+44.8%
2022-07-13+42.7%+0.0%+43.4%
2022-07-12+42.5%−0.7%+42.5%

1,958 overlapping windows · 2018-10-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+1.4%
n=8
Feb
63%
+1.4%
n=8
Mar
50%
+0.7%
n=8
Apr
50%
+0.1%
n=8
May
75%
+4.5%
n=8
Jun
63%
+3.4%
n=8
Jul
50%
+2.1%
n=8
Aug
63%
+2.2%
n=8
Sep
25%
−1.6%
n=8
Oct
71%
+5.3%
n=7
Nov
75%
+6.6%
n=8
Dec
63%
+1.6%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$146$892025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $396K — Stevenson Bryan2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Stevenson Bryan — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-08-12Stevenson BryanofficerSale4,000 @ $99.02$396K−9.5% of holding−3.4%+20.7%38,089Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-11Cole Kerry SofficerSale7,966 @ $95.77$763K−28.7% of holding−1.8%+24.8%19,769Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-17Collins Jesse E. Jr.officerSale4,466 @ $86.03$384K−21.1% of holding−1.4%+12.6%16,701Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-17Collins Jesse E. Jr.officerSale4,150 @ $86.79$360K−24.8% of holding−1.4%+12.6%12,551Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15Hurst Eric DofficerSale835 @ $88.57$74K−16.9% of holding−5.1%+0.8%4,112Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Carrillo AntoniodirectorPurchase6,145 @ $78.54$483K+1.4% of holding+1.1%+5.1%433,083Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-10Carrillo AntoniodirectorPurchase200 @ $79.05$16K+0.0% of holding+1.1%+5.1%433,283Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05BEST RHYS JdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $79.83$120K+2.6% of holding−0.7%+7.5%58,195Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

89 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Carrillo AntoniodirectorGift26,666498,935Form 4
2026-08-26Trent Melanie MontaguedirectorGift2,00017,931Form 4
2026-08-25Essl Reid SofficerGift5,95093,264Form 4
2026-08-25Stevenson BryanofficerGift6,90037,476Form 4
2026-08-25Hurst Eric DofficerGift2,3823,119Form 4
2026-06-30LINDSAY JOHN WdirectorAward / grant37,402Form 4
2026-06-30Carrillo AntoniodirectorAward / grant14,885Form 4
2026-05-15Peck Gail MofficerWithheld for tax2,60085,692Form 4
2026-05-15Essl Reid SofficerWithheld for tax2,20699,214Form 4
2026-05-15Cole Kerry SofficerWithheld for tax26227,487Form 4
2026-05-15Hurst Eric DofficerWithheld for tax175,501Form 4
2026-05-13PIGGOTT JULIE AdirectorAward / grant1,0879,413Form 4
2026-05-13Lubel Kimberly SdirectorAward / grant1,0879,627Form 4
2026-05-13Craig Jeffrey AdirectorAward / grant1,08719,931Form 4
2026-05-13BEST RHYS JdirectorAward / grant1,08760,863Form 4
2026-05-13DEMETRIOU STEVEN J.directorAward / grant1,08712,611Form 4
2026-05-13ALVARADO JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant1,08719,931Form 4
2026-05-13Trent Melanie MontaguedirectorAward / grant1,08719,931Form 4
2026-05-13LINDSAY JOHN WdirectorAward / grant1,08719,931Form 4
2026-04-03Collins Jesse E. Jr.officerWithheld for tax5017,333Form 4
2026-03-31Carrillo AntoniodirectorAward / grant34,884Form 4
2026-03-31LINDSAY JOHN WdirectorAward / grant37,399Form 4
2026-03-15Carrillo AntoniodirectorWithheld for tax37,157525,601Form 4
2026-03-15Peck Gail MofficerWithheld for tax7,74488,292Form 4
2026-03-15Essl Reid SofficerWithheld for tax6,668101,420Form 4
2026-03-15Cole Kerry SofficerWithheld for tax5,75027,749Form 4
2026-03-15Collins Jesse E. Jr.officerWithheld for tax5,08317,383Form 4
2026-03-15Stevenson BryanofficerWithheld for tax4,77344,376Form 4
2026-03-15Hurst Eric DofficerWithheld for tax9755,518Form 4
2026-03-15Cole Kerry SofficerAward / grant11,26033,499Form 4
2026-03-15Stevenson BryanofficerAward / grant9,17949,149Form 4
2026-03-15Carrillo AntoniodirectorAward / grant72,142562,758Form 4
2026-03-15Hurst Eric DofficerAward / grant1,7976,493Form 4
2026-03-15Essl Reid SofficerAward / grant12,940108,088Form 4
2026-03-15Peck Gail MofficerAward / grant15,07596,036Form 4
2026-03-15Collins Jesse E. Jr.officerAward / grant9,91522,466Form 4
2026-02-24Carrillo AntoniodirectorAward / grant16,907490,616Form 4
2026-02-23Cole Kerry SofficerAward / grant2,47022,239Form 4
2026-02-23Essl Reid SofficerAward / grant3,09195,148Form 4
2026-02-23Hurst Eric DofficerAward / grant5844,696Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.