Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.05 · now $5.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABUS has typically landed between $4.19 and $6.29 — a range of −17.0% to +24.6% from the issuance price $5.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,794 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-07-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ABUS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.03 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.62–$5.43
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.19–$6.29
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-05 | −69.7% | −69.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −67.0% | −67.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-06 | −65.0% | −69.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-06-23 | +142.0% | −14.6% | +142.0% |
| 2020-07-07 | +134.9% | −5.9% | +166.7% |
| 2014-07-11 | +129.5% | −13.4% | +129.5% |
4,794 overlapping windows · 2007-07-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-04 | McElhaugh Michael J. | director | Sale | 23,790 @ $3.28 | $78K | −1.6% of holding | +5.1% | −2.5% | 1,481,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | HASTINGS DAVID C | director | Sale | 22,183 @ $3.28 | $73K | −12.2% of holding | +5.1% | −2.5% | 159,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Sims Karen | officer | Sale | 19,348 @ $3.28 | $64K | −15.4% of holding | +5.1% | −2.5% | 106,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Naftzger J. Christopher | officer | Sale | 11,333 @ $3.28 | $37K | −11.6% of holding | +5.1% | −2.5% | 86,244 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Beardsley Robert A | director | Award / grant | 78,800 | 78,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Sawhney Roger | director | Award / grant | 78,800 | 78,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Androski Lindsay | director | Award / grant | 28,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Androski Lindsay | director | Award / grant | 71,700 | 71,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Nguyen Tuan | officer | Award / grant | 73,500 | 73,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Nguyen Tuan | officer | Award / grant | 188,400 | 188,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-04 | Sawhney Roger | director | Award / grant | 157,600 | 157,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Nguyen Tuan | officer | Award / grant | 750,000 | 750,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Hasija Anuj | director | Award / grant | 157,600 | 157,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Beardsley Robert A | director | Award / grant | 157,600 | 157,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Androski Lindsay | director | Award / grant | 310,422 | 310,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Naftzger J. Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 220,300 | 220,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | HASTINGS DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 365,800 | 365,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | McElhaugh Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 177,000 | 1,658,003 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | McElhaugh Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 718,800 | 718,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Naftzger J. Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 54,300 | 140,544 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Sims Karen | officer | Award / grant | 49,300 | 155,494 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Sims Karen | officer | Award / grant | 200,300 | 200,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-14 | HASTINGS DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 90,100 | 249,824 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.