ABTCAmerican Bitcoin CorpFinancial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.14 · now $8.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABTC has typically landed between $4.25 and $12.21 — a range of −47.8% to +50.0% from the issuance price $8.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,127 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-02-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ABTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.25worst · -47.8%$12.21best · +50.0%
  • now $8.14 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.9 (-15.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.67–$8.12
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.25–$12.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,127 windows spanning 2018-02-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-02-08−75.0%−75.0%+0.0%
2024-01-17−70.8%−70.8%+19.4%
2024-01-18−69.4%−70.8%+19.4%
3 best
2025-04-16+836.6%+0.0%+878.9%
2025-04-15+785.0%−9.6%+785.0%
2025-04-10+753.3%−5.3%+753.3%

2,127 overlapping windows · 2018-02-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
38%
+7.8%
n=8
Feb
0%
−19.1%
n=8
Mar
0%
−16.3%
n=9
Apr
56%
+7.1%
n=9
May
56%
+40.1%
n=9
Jun
22%
−5.7%
n=9
Jul
33%
−15.6%
n=9
Aug
33%
+0.5%
n=9
Sep
33%
−19.4%
n=9
Oct
25%
−5.7%
n=8
Nov
38%
+6.7%
n=8
Dec
25%
−13.2%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$140$52026-08-06: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Mateen Justin2026-08-05: 1 insider purchase, $925K — Mateen Justin2026-06-15: 1 insider purchase, $392K — Busch Richard2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $78K — Busch Richard2026-03-04: 1 insider purchase, $103K — Busch Richard2026-03-03: 2 insider purchases, $2.1M — Mateen Justin, Busch Richard2025-12-30: 2 insider purchases, $65.0M — Genoot Asher, Ho Michael2025-12-22: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Busch Richard2025-12-16: 1 insider purchase, $291K — Busch Richard2025-09-03: 3 insider sales, $20.2M — Anchorage Lending CA, LLC …2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $20.2M2025-12: 4 open-market purchases, $65.4M2026-03: 4 open-market purchases, $2.3M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $392K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $1.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Mateen Justin — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mateen Justin — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Busch Richard — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Busch Richard — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Busch Richard — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mateen Justin — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Busch Richard — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Genoot Asher — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Ho Michael — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Busch Richard — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Busch Richard — Purchase on 2025-12-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Anchorage Lending CA, LLC — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Anchorage Lending CA, LLC — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Anchorage Lending CA, LLC — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Mateen JustindirectorPurchase162,438 @ $6.19$1.0M+49.2% of holding+28.9%not yet — horizon still open492,297Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Mateen JustindirectorPurchase144,543 @ $6.40$925K+78.0% of holding+42.4%not yet — horizon still open329,859Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Busch RicharddirectorPurchase450,000 @ $0.87$392K+32.2% of holding−57.1%not yet — horizon still open1,848,975Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Busch RicharddirectorPurchase68,000 @ $1.15$78K+5.1% of holding−21.3%−60.9%1,398,975Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Busch RicharddirectorPurchase90,000 @ $1.15$103K+7.3% of holding−16.9%−66.6%1,330,975Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Mateen JustindirectorPurchase1,800,000 @ $1.03$1.9M+248.3% of holding−7.4%−62.7%2,524,975Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Busch RicharddirectorPurchase240,000 @ $0.96$230K+24.0% of holding−7.4%−62.7%1,240,975Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-30Genoot AsherdirectorPurchase23,199,205 @ $1.40$32.5Mownership Δ n/a−12.9%−76.3%23,199,205Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-30Ho MichaeldirectorPurchase23,199,205 @ $1.40$32.5Mownership Δ n/a−12.9%−76.3%23,199,205Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-22Busch RicharddirectorPurchase101,000 @ $1.98$200K+11.2% of holding−22.2%−71.6%1,000,975Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16Busch RicharddirectorPurchase175,000 @ $1.66$291K+24.1% of holding−2.8%−59.4%899,975Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Anchorage Lending CA, LLCdirectorSale1,103,035 @ $8.45$9.3M−85.9% of holding−14.3%−91.9%181,286Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Anchorage Lending CA, LLCdirectorSale1,250,170 @ $7.36$9.2M−49.3% of holding−14.3%−91.9%1,284,321Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Anchorage Lending CA, LLCdirectorSale181,285 @ $9.20$1.7M−100.0% of holding−14.3%−91.9%1Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-29Busch RicharddirectorAward / grant46,40446,404Form 4
2026-07-29Broukhim MichaeldirectorAward / grant49,30449,304Form 4
2026-07-29Mateen JustindirectorAward / grant46,40446,404Form 4
2026-06-24Busch RicharddirectorOther acquisition254,7781,848,975Form 4
2026-06-22Broukhim MichaeldirectorOption exercise270,7010Form 4
2026-06-22Busch RicharddirectorOption exercise254,7780Form 4
2026-06-22Mateen JustindirectorOption exercise254,7780Form 4
2026-06-22Broukhim MichaeldirectorOption exercise270,701270,701Form 4
2026-06-22Mateen JustindirectorOption exercise254,7782,779,753Form 4
2026-06-22Broukhim MichaeldirectorOption exercise270,701270,701Form 4
2026-06-22Mateen JustindirectorOption exercise254,7782,779,753Form 4
2026-06-22Busch RicharddirectorOption exercise254,7782,103,753Form 4
2026-06-22Busch RicharddirectorOption exercise254,7782,103,753Form 4
2026-02-24Mateen JustindirectorAward / grant254,778254,778Form 4
2026-02-24Broukhim MichaeldirectorAward / grant270,701270,701Form 4
2026-02-24Prusak MatthewofficerAward / grant477,708477,708Form 4
2026-02-24Busch RicharddirectorAward / grant254,778254,778Form 4
2025-12-05Broukhim MichaeldirectorOther acquisition13,38613,386Form 4
2025-12-05Broukhim MichaeldirectorOther acquisition13,38613,386Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.