ABRArbor Realty TrustReal Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.52 · now $4.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABR has typically landed between $3.75 and $5.27 — a range of −17.0% to +16.5% from the issuance price $4.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ABR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.75worst · -17.0%$5.27best · +16.5%
  • now $4.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.49 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.21–$4.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.75–$5.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-29−71.4%−71.4%+0.0%
2009-01-28−71.3%−71.3%+0.5%
2020-02-21−70.6%−70.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-02+371.1%−7.1%+371.1%
2009-04-01+343.8%+0.0%+343.8%
2009-04-03+305.7%−11.4%+349.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Feb
70%
+0.4%
n=20
Mar
55%
−0.5%
n=20
Apr
55%
+18.8%
n=20
May
45%
−2.6%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Jul
70%
+4.6%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
+1.5%
n=20
Oct
40%
−4.7%
n=20
Nov
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$52026-08-31: 3 insider purchases, $132K — Green William C …2026-08-05: 4 insider sales, $0 — Natalone John …2026-08-05: 4 insider purchases, $0 — KAUFMAN IVAN …2026-06-04: 1 insider purchase, $149K — Tsunis George2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $149K — Tsunis George2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $3K — Tsunis George2026-05-26: 2 insider purchases, $6K — Tsunis George …2026-05-19: 2 insider purchases, $21K — Tsunis George …2026-05-14: 2 insider purchases, $15K — Tsunis George …2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $60K — Friedman David Erwin2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $53K — Friedman David Erwin2026-03-17: 1 insider purchase, $15K — Tsunis George2025-11-28: 1 insider purchase, $115K — Green William C2025-11-17: 3 insider purchases, $304K — KAUFMAN IVAN, LAZAR MELVIN F, Friedman David Erwin2025-11-13: 1 insider purchase, $228K — KAUFMAN IVAN2025-11: 5 open-market purchases, $647K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $15K2026-05: 7 open-market purchases, $101K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $53K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $152K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $149K2026-08: 7 open-market purchases, $132K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Green William C — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Green William C — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Green William C — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Natalone John — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector Natalone John — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector KAUFMAN IVAN — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector KAUFMAN IVAN — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector KAUFMAN IVAN — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector Natalone John — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector Natalone John — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector KAUFMAN IVAN — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Friedman David Erwin — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Friedman David Erwin — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Tsunis George — Purchase on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Green William C — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector KAUFMAN IVAN — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed same daydirector LAZAR MELVIN F — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Friedman David Erwin — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KAUFMAN IVAN — Purchase on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Green William CdirectorPurchase24,985 @ $5.07$127K+12.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open230,403Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Green William CdirectorPurchase950 @ $5.09$5K+0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open231,353Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Green William CdirectorPurchase16 @ $5.10$82+0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open231,369Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Natalone JohndirectorSale375,000—−53.4% of holding−0.1%not yet — horizon still open327,335Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05Natalone JohndirectorSale375,000—−53.4% of holding−0.1%not yet — horizon still open327,335Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase375,000—ownership Δ n/a−0.1%not yet — horizon still open375,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase375,000—ownership Δ n/a−0.1%not yet — horizon still open375,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase375,000—ownership Δ n/a−0.1%not yet — horizon still open375,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05Natalone JohndirectorSale375,000—−53.4% of holding−0.1%not yet — horizon still open327,335Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05Natalone JohndirectorSale375,000—−53.4% of holding−0.1%not yet — horizon still open327,335Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase375,000—ownership Δ n/a−0.1%not yet — horizon still open375,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-04Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase26,700 @ $5.58$149K+89.0% of holding−10.2%not yet — horizon still open56,700Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-04Tsunis GeorgedirectorSale26,700 @ $5.57$149K−47.1% of holding−10.2%not yet — horizon still open30,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase500 @ $5.48$3K+33.3% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open2,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase500 @ $5.51$3K+50.0% of holding−3.8%not yet — horizon still open1,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase500 @ $5.50$3K+50.0% of holding−3.8%not yet — horizon still open1,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase3,400 @ $5.86$20K+12.8% of holding−9.8%not yet — horizon still open30,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase100 @ $5.85$585+0.4% of holding−9.8%not yet — horizon still open26,600Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase1,510 @ $5.83$9K+6.0% of holding−9.9%not yet — horizon still open26,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase1,000 @ $5.83$6Kownership Δ n/a−9.9%not yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-11Friedman David ErwinofficerPurchase8,840 @ $6.84$60K+14.8% of holding−17.8%not yet — horizon still open68,478Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Friedman David ErwinofficerSale7,685 @ $6.87$53K−11.4% of holding−17.8%not yet — horizon still open59,638Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17Tsunis GeorgedirectorPurchase1,927 @ $7.85$15K+8.4% of holding−3.6%−53.2%24,990Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28Green William CdirectorPurchase12,800 @ $9.02$115K+6.6% of holding−13.5%−46.8%205,418Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-17KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase29,000 @ $8.34$242K+116.0% of holding−0.6%−39.4%54,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-17LAZAR MELVIN FdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $8.28$41K+2.1% of holding−0.6%−39.4%239,714Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17Friedman David ErwinofficerPurchase2,508 @ $8.30$21K+3.7% of holding−0.6%−39.4%70,921Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-13KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $9.10$228Kownership Δ n/a−5.8%−39.1%25,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-03Green William CdirectorPurchase13,821 @ $9.45$131K+7.7% of holding+6.9%−17.7%192,618Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-22KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase60,000 @ $8.70$522K+3.1% of holding+13.9%−13.6%1,989,816Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-22Elenio PaulofficerPurchase5,000 @ $8.50$43K+1.5% of holding+13.9%−13.6%329,641Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Elenio PaulofficerPurchase5,000 @ $8.45$42K+1.5% of holding+13.9%−13.6%334,641Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Ottaviano GianniofficerPurchase2,854 @ $8.76$25K+1.9% of holding+13.9%−13.6%156,161Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22Friedman David ErwinofficerPurchase2,500 @ $8.79$22K+3.8% of holding+13.9%−13.6%67,788Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Friedman David ErwinofficerPurchase1,250 @ $8.60$11K+2.0% of holding+13.9%−13.6%65,163Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Friedman David ErwinofficerPurchase625 @ $8.80$6K+0.9% of holding+13.9%−13.6%68,413Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Friedman David ErwinofficerPurchase125 @ $8.75$1K+0.2% of holding+13.9%−13.6%65,288Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-21KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase140,000 @ $9.43$1.3M+7.8% of holding+11.7%−12.2%1,929,816Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21Ottaviano GianniofficerPurchase1,673 @ $9.25$15K+1.1% of holding+11.7%−12.2%153,307Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20KAUFMAN IVANdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $9.98$100K+0.6% of holding+0.6%−21.5%1,789,816Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-05Green William CdirectorPurchase5,258 @ $14.17$75K+3.0% of holding+0.1%−20.6%178,797Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05Green William CdirectorPurchase11 @ $14.16$156+0.0% of holding+0.1%−20.6%173,539Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

171 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Green William CdirectorAward / grant2,19867,153Form 4
2026-08-28LAZAR MELVIN FdirectorAward / grant1,84256,266Form 4
2026-08-28BACON KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant37936,224Form 4
2026-06-30BACON KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant5,55535,845Form 4
2026-06-15Green William CdirectorAward / grant2,06464,955Form 4
2026-06-15LAZAR MELVIN FdirectorAward / grant1,73054,424Form 4
2026-06-15BACON KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant35730,290Form 4
2026-03-31BACON KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant3,94729,933Form 4
2026-03-24Green William CdirectorAward / grant1,84662,891Form 4
2026-03-24LAZAR MELVIN FdirectorAward / grant1,45252,694Form 4
2026-03-24BACON KENNETH JdirectorAward / grant41925,986Form 4
2026-03-14Katz SteveofficerWithheld for tax11,189228,318Form 4
2026-03-14Elenio PaulofficerWithheld for tax6,912381,196Form 4
2026-03-14Katz SteveofficerWithheld for tax6,643221,675Form 4
2026-03-14Elenio PaulofficerWithheld for tax6,643374,553Form 4
2026-03-14van der Reis DennisofficerWithheld for tax6,145238,534Form 4
2026-03-14Kilgore GeneofficerWithheld for tax5,314265,046Form 4
2026-03-14van der Reis DennisofficerWithheld for tax4,795244,679Form 4
2026-03-14Kilgore GeneofficerWithheld for tax4,147270,360Form 4
2026-03-14Friedman David ErwinofficerWithheld for tax3,59867,323Form 4
2026-03-14WEBER FREDofficerWithheld for tax2,995520,155Form 4
2026-03-14WEBER FREDofficerWithheld for tax2,879517,276Form 4
2026-03-14Ridings Thomas J.officerWithheld for tax2,326137,615Form 4
2026-03-14Vahidi MaysaofficerWithheld for tax2,18333,662Form 4
2026-03-14Vahidi MaysaofficerWithheld for tax2,09931,563Form 4
2026-03-14Ridings Thomas J.officerWithheld for tax2,074139,941Form 4
2026-03-14Ottaviano GianniofficerWithheld for tax1,953176,884Form 4
2026-03-14Ottaviano GianniofficerWithheld for tax1,877175,007Form 4
2026-03-14GUZIEWICZ ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax976107,570Form 4
2026-03-14GUZIEWICZ ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax939106,631Form 4
2026-03-13Katz SteveofficerWithheld for tax12,609239,507Form 4
2026-03-13Elenio PaulofficerWithheld for tax10,965388,108Form 4
2026-03-13van der Reis DennisofficerWithheld for tax9,297249,474Form 4
2026-03-13Wachter KevinofficerWithheld for tax8,65695,678Form 4
2026-03-13Kilgore GeneofficerWithheld for tax6,579274,507Form 4
2026-03-13WEBER FREDofficerWithheld for tax4,751523,150Form 4
2026-03-13Ottaviano GianniofficerWithheld for tax3,097178,837Form 4
2026-03-13Ridings Thomas J.officerWithheld for tax2,741142,015Form 4
2026-03-13GUZIEWICZ ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax1,549108,546Form 4
2026-03-13Green William CdirectorAward / grant15,14161,045Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.