Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.61 · now $2.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABOS has typically landed between $1.83 and $3.94 — a range of −29.8% to +51.1% from the issuance price $2.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,286 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ABOS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.47 (-5.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.04–$2.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.83–$3.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,286 windows spanning 2021-07-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-10-11 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-02 | −55.2% | −55.2% | +7.4% |
| 2023-10-03 | −54.8% | −55.5% | +6.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-08-29 | +99.6% | −15.4% | +99.6% |
| 2022-08-30 | +91.0% | −15.4% | +99.6% |
| 2022-06-16 | +90.0% | +0.0% | +97.2% |
1,286 overlapping windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−1.9%
n=5
Feb
60%
+7.3%
n=5
Mar
0%
−20.2%
n=5
Apr
40%
−4.5%
n=5
May
40%
+2.0%
n=5
Jun
60%
+5.8%
n=5
Jul
80%
+21.4%
n=5
Aug
50%
+2.4%
n=6
Sep
33%
+6.0%
n=6
Oct
40%
−9.2%
n=5
Nov
20%
−13.9%
n=5
Dec
40%
+5.7%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Porter Derrell | director | Sale | 13,040 @ $2.33 | $30K | −26.9% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-16 | Porter Derrell | director | Sale | 12,800 @ $2.33 | $30K | −26.5% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Porter Derrell | director | Sale | 6,460 @ $2.35 | $15K | −11.8% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Fountain Nathan B | director | Sale | 6,400 @ $2.23 | $14K | −11.7% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 2,090 @ $3.26 | $7K | −1.2% of holding | −18.9% | −19.1% | 173,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 9,406 @ $3.01 | $28K | −5.1% of holding | −22.6% | −19.8% | 173,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 2,671 @ $3.00 | $8K | −1.5% of holding | +13.1% | −30.0% | 173,999 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 15,085 @ $3.00 | $45K | −8.0% of holding | +33.6% | +2.1% | 173,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 5,633 @ $1.90 | $11K | −3.1% of holding | +39.7% | +3.3% | 173,999 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 2,689 @ $1.88 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | +30.6% | −0.8% | 881,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 1,687 @ $1.86 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | +30.6% | −0.8% | 304,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 1,054 @ $1.84 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | +30.6% | −0.8% | 179,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Siemers Eric | officer | Sale | 895 @ $1.82 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | +30.6% | −0.8% | 255,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 462 @ $1.84 | $850 | −0.2% of holding | +30.6% | −0.8% | 205,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 9,346 @ $1.81 | $17K | −1.0% of holding | +41.4% | +11.6% | 883,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 2,473 @ $1.81 | $4K | −0.8% of holding | +41.4% | +11.6% | 306,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Siemers Eric | officer | Sale | 2,331 @ $1.80 | $4K | −0.9% of holding | +41.4% | +11.6% | 256,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 2,315 @ $1.81 | $4K | −1.1% of holding | +41.4% | +11.6% | 205,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 2,247 @ $1.81 | $4K | −1.2% of holding | +41.4% | +11.6% | 180,686 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 8,548 @ $1.71 | $15K | −9.3% of holding | +49.3% | +19.9% | 83,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-12 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 5,388 @ $1.73 | $9K | −0.9% of holding | +49.3% | +19.9% | 593,510 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-09 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 12,941 @ $1.76 | $23K | −2.1% of holding | +36.7% | +30.9% | 598,898 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 5,200 @ $1.76 | $9K | −5.3% of holding | +36.7% | +30.9% | 92,348 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 30,092 @ $1.82 | $55K | −23.6% of holding | +32.7% | +32.7% | 97,548 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 8,143 @ $1.82 | $15K | −1.3% of holding | +32.7% | +32.7% | 611,839 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 6,888 @ $1.82 | $13K | −3.2% of holding | +32.7% | +32.7% | 209,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 6,819 @ $1.82 | $12K | −5.1% of holding | +32.7% | +32.7% | 127,640 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Doherty James J. | officer | Sale | 6,467 @ $1.82 | $12K | −10.7% of holding | +32.7% | +32.7% | 54,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 3,530 @ $1.86 | $7K | −2.8% of holding | +32.7% | +32.7% | 123,269 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 37,755 @ $1.99 | $75K | −5.7% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 619,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 10,070 @ $1.99 | $20K | −7.0% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 134,459 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 4,105 @ $2.00 | $8K | −1.8% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 218,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Doherty James J. | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $1.99 | $3K | −2.7% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 60,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $1.99 | $3K | −1.2% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 144,529 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $1.99 | $3K | −1.3% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 126,799 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $1.99 | $3K | −0.8% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 216,839 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Schacterle Amy | officer | Sale | 1,097 @ $1.98 | $2K | −12.5% of holding | +20.5% | +22.1% | 7,703 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 7,097 @ $1.97 | $14K | −4.5% of holding | +16.8% | +28.5% | 150,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Siemers Eric | officer | Sale | 6,834 @ $1.97 | $13K | −4.1% of holding | +16.8% | +28.5% | 159,464 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 5,102 @ $1.97 | $10K | −0.8% of holding | +16.8% | +28.5% | 657,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 5,100 @ $1.97 | $10K | −2.2% of holding | +16.8% | +28.5% | 222,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 3,801 @ $1.97 | $7K | −2.5% of holding | +16.8% | +28.5% | 146,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 3,618 @ $1.97 | $7K | −2.7% of holding | +16.8% | +28.5% | 128,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 4,649 @ $1.97 | $9K | −0.7% of holding | +24.0% | +28.9% | 662,839 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $1.96 | $8K | −1.7% of holding | +24.0% | +28.9% | 227,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $1.96 | $8K | −2.5% of holding | +24.0% | +28.9% | 157,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Siemers Eric | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $1.96 | $8K | −2.3% of holding | +24.0% | +28.9% | 166,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $1.96 | $8K | −2.9% of holding | +24.0% | +28.9% | 132,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 28,902 @ $1.72 | $50K | −11.1% of holding | −17.6% | −14.4% | 231,744 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-21 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 12,619 @ $1.59 | $20K | −1.9% of holding | −16.6% | −2.7% | 667,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 4,364 @ $1.60 | $7K | −1.6% of holding | −16.6% | −2.7% | 260,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 3,418 @ $1.59 | $5K | −2.1% of holding | −16.6% | −2.7% | 161,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Siemers Eric | officer | Sale | 3,219 @ $1.59 | $5K | −1.9% of holding | −16.6% | −2.7% | 170,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 2,914 @ $1.61 | $5K | −2.1% of holding | −16.6% | −2.7% | 136,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Sale | 47,778 @ $1.84 | $88K | −9.5% of holding | −21.0% | −40.3% | 454,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Zuga Matt | director | Sale | 13,235 @ $1.84 | $24K | −6.3% of holding | −21.0% | −40.3% | 198,210 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Sale | 11,122 @ $1.84 | $21K | −10.2% of holding | −21.0% | −40.3% | 97,745 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Siemers Eric | officer | Sale | 10,859 @ $1.85 | $20K | −9.2% of holding | −21.0% | −40.3% | 106,717 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Barton Russell | officer | Sale | 7,636 @ $1.86 | $14K | −7.9% of holding | −21.0% | −40.3% | 89,231 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Porter Derrell | director | Option exercise | 13,040 | 48,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Porter Derrell | director | Option exercise | 13,040 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Porter Derrell | director | Option exercise | 6,460 | 54,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Porter Derrell | director | Option exercise | 6,460 | 13,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Porter Derrell | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 48,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Porter Derrell | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stalfort John A III | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 220,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stalfort John A III | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Drapkin Kimberlee C | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 48,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Drapkin Kimberlee C | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Fountain Nathan B | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 54,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Fountain Nathan B | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stoppel Laura | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 48,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 48,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stoppel Laura | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Golumbeski George | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 35,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Golumbeski George | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ives Jeffrey L. | director | Award / grant | 35,500 | 48,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ives Jeffrey L. | director | Award / grant | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 6,060,606 | 19,103,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 2,090 | 176,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 2,090 | 71,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 9,406 | 183,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 9,406 | 73,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 2,671 | 176,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 2,671 | 82,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 15,085 | 189,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Option exercise | 15,085 | 85,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Award / grant | 299,800 | 893,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | OConnell Daniel Joseph | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Siemers Eric | officer | Award / grant | 148,700 | 148,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Siemers Eric | officer | Award / grant | 99,133 | 258,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Barton Russell | officer | Award / grant | 126,900 | 126,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Barton Russell | officer | Award / grant | 84,600 | 207,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Zuga Matt | director | Award / grant | 99,133 | 309,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Zuga Matt | director | Award / grant | 148,700 | 148,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Meisner Derek M | officer | Award / grant | 99,133 | 182,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Doherty James J. | officer | Award / grant | 250,300 | 250,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Doherty James J. | officer | Award / grant | 166,867 | 220,900 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.