Issued 2026-09-16 at $167.51 · now $167.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABNB has typically landed between $138.73 and $201.72 — a range of −17.2% to +20.4% from the issuance price $167.51.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,426 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($167.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ABNB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $167.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $167.51 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $168.03 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $155.55–$180.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $138.73–$201.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,426 windows spanning 2020-12-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-19 | −36.5% | −36.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-14 | −33.0% | −33.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-25 | −32.9% | −32.9% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-11 | +42.9% | +0.0% | +42.9% |
| 2023-01-03 | +39.6% | +0.0% | +39.6% |
| 2022-12-27 | +38.9% | −1.2% | +38.9% |
1,426 overlapping windows · 2020-12-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$83.7B
market cap
$4.04
EPS (TTM)
34.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$12.2B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr30.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.28
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$146.92
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$96.24
- Analyst target · range $120.00–$185.00$158.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$167.51
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+8.1%
n=6
Feb
83%
+6.9%
n=6
Mar
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Apr
33%
−2.2%
n=6
May
17%
−9.3%
n=6
Jun
83%
+2.3%
n=6
Jul
67%
+5.9%
n=6
Aug
50%
−0.1%
n=6
Sep
50%
−0.3%
n=6
Oct
80%
+0.0%
n=5
Nov
60%
−0.6%
n=5
Dec
40%
+0.1%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 10,350 @ $172.61 | $1.8M | −32.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 1,404 @ $171.70 | $241K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,508 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 1,270 @ $170.73 | $217K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 591 @ $173.14 | $102K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bernstein David C | officer | Sale | 5,224 @ $182.49 | $953K | −9.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 4,042 @ $186.38 | $753K | −12.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 3,719 @ $188.51 | $701K | −15.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,806 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 3,728 @ $187.68 | $700K | −13.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 1,887 @ $185.67 | $350K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 239 @ $189.05 | $45K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 45,215 @ $190.58 | $8.6M | −58.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,512 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 11,945 @ $191.20 | $2.3M | −36.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,567 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 11,860 @ $190.24 | $2.3M | −29.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 7,199 @ $191.43 | $1.4M | −25.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 600 @ $192.16 | $115K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 199,878 @ $190.27 | $38.0M | −52.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 182,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 2,774 @ $191.09 | $530K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 179,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 98,055 @ $190.34 | $18.7M | −57.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 24,563 @ $192.55 | $4.7M | −49.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,464 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 23,125 @ $191.33 | $4.4M | −31.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 4,897 @ $193.14 | $946K | −19.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 2,738 @ $184.42 | $505K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 9,133 @ $182.54 | $1.7M | −24.2% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 4,482 @ $183.51 | $822K | −15.6% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,194 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 227,419 @ $175.56 | $39.9M | −49.2% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 234,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 122,331 @ $174.45 | $21.3M | −20.9% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,875 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 76,513 @ $175.54 | $13.4M | −0.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,547,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 61,792 @ $176.37 | $10.9M | −26.4% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,664 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 40,029 @ $174.53 | $7.0M | −0.4% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,624,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 39,998 @ $173.39 | $6.9M | −6.4% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 584,206 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 26,403 @ $177.52 | $4.7M | −0.3% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,509,392 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 22,100 @ $168.51 | $3.7M | −3.2% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 663,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 16,893 @ $173.53 | $2.9M | −0.2% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,664,424 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 16,725 @ $172.82 | $2.9M | −2.6% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 624,204 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 16,124 @ $171.48 | $2.8M | −2.5% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 640,929 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 13,487 @ $167.65 | $2.3M | −1.9% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 685,360 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 12,087 @ $176.52 | $2.1M | −0.1% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,535,795 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 9,020 @ $164.95 | $1.5M | −0.1% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,692,565 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | CHENAULT KENNETH I | director | Sale | 8,346 @ $170.00 | $1.4M | −17.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 7,707 @ $178.20 | $1.4M | −0.1% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,501,685 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 6,207 @ $170.47 | $1.1M | −0.9% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 657,053 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 5,847 @ $175.53 | $1.0M | −36.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,099 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 3,622 @ $174.56 | $632K | −18.5% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,946 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 3,209 @ $172.71 | $554K | −0.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,681,317 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 2,723 @ $166.59 | $454K | −0.4% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 698,847 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 2,181 @ $177.49 | $387K | −24.9% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,564 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 2,185 @ $171.65 | $375K | −0.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,684,526 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 1,696 @ $165.27 | $280K | −0.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,690,869 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 1,354 @ $176.39 | $239K | −13.4% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,745 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 1,346 @ $173.49 | $234K | −6.4% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,568 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 1,410 @ $165.17 | $233K | −5.5% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,444 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 1,294 @ $177.06 | $229K | −0.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,370 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 1,310 @ $168.77 | $221K | −0.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,688,264 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $170.78 | $205K | −0.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,686,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 1,102 @ $169.10 | $186K | −4.9% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 900 @ $166.24 | $150K | −3.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,544 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Sale | 800 @ $165.16 | $132K | −0.1% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 701,570 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 710 @ $178.11 | $126K | −10.8% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,854 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 700 @ $166.75 | $117K | −0.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,690,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Chesky Brian | director | Sale | 600 @ $167.66 | $101K | −2.5% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,944 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
122 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 44,384,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Gift | 4,077 | 34,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 38,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 38,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bernstein David C | officer | Option exercise | 5,224 | 53,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bernstein David C | officer | Option exercise | 5,224 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 44,401,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Gift | 4,077 | 34,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 38,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 38,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 38,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 17,692 | 38,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 57,160 | 44,419,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Chesky Brian | director | Gift | 76,500 | 10,425,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 57,160 | 77,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 57,160 | 77,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 57,160 | 77,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 57,160 | 77,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 19,659 | 44,476,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 19,659 | 40,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 19,659 | 40,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 19,659 | 40,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 19,659 | 40,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 19,659 | 40,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 361,652 | 44,496,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Gift | 159,000 | 20,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 361,652 | 382,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 361,652 | 382,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 361,652 | 382,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 361,652 | 382,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gebbia Joseph | director | Gift | 960,000 | 215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 150,640 | 44,858,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gebbia Joseph | director | Conversion | 960,000 | 23,715,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gebbia Joseph | director | Conversion | 960,000 | 960,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 150,640 | 171,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 150,640 | 171,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gebbia Joseph | director | Conversion | 960,000 | 960,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gebbia Joseph | director | Conversion | 960,000 | 960,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Blecharczyk Nathan | director | Conversion | 150,640 | 171,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gebbia Joseph | director | Conversion | 960,000 | 960,215 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.