ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealershipsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $195.21 · now $195.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABG has typically landed between $166.79 and $229.85 — a range of −14.6% to +17.7% from the issuance price $195.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($195.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ABG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $195.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$166.79worst · -14.6%$229.85best · +17.7%
  • now $195.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $195.06 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $181.83–$208.29
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $166.79–$229.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-24−84.1%−84.1%+0.0%
2008-09-26−83.5%−83.9%+0.0%
2008-09-25−83.2%−84.0%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+188.6%+0.0%+188.6%
2009-03-05+171.0%−6.1%+171.0%
2009-03-12+166.7%+0.0%+172.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Apr
75%
+11.2%
n=20
May
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Jul
65%
+8.5%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Oct
45%
−4.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+7.3%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$259$1762026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $237K — Milstein Jed2026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $29K — DiSantis B. Christopher2026-03-10: 1 insider purchase, $101K — DiSantis B. Christopher2026-03-06: 2 insider purchases, $1.0M — Hult David W …2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $266K — Milstein Jed2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $204K — Morrison Maureen F2025-08-22: 2 insider sales, $388K — Milstein Jed, Calloway Dean2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $153K — JAMES JUANITA T2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $746K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $266K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $1.1M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $29K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $237K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Milstein Jed — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DiSantis B. Christopher — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DiSantis B. Christopher — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hult David W — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hult David W — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Milstein Jed — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Morrison Maureen F — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Milstein Jed — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Calloway Dean — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector JAMES JUANITA T — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-29Milstein JedofficerSale948 @ $250.28$237K−7.8% of holding−20.8%not yet — horizon still open11,259Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20DiSantis B. ChristopherdirectorPurchase157 @ $182.31$29K+2.5% of holding+6.6%not yet — horizon still open6,400Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10DiSantis B. ChristopherdirectorPurchase500 @ $202.30$101K+10.2% of holding+0.7%−6.7%5,400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06Hult David WdirectorPurchase3,396 @ $205.63$698K+3.9% of holding−3.0%−9.1%90,683Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Hult David WdirectorPurchase1,604 @ $204.73$328K+1.9% of holding−3.0%−9.1%87,287Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-25Milstein JedofficerSale1,132 @ $235.26$266K−10.0% of holding+0.8%−32.4%10,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28Morrison Maureen FdirectorSale800 @ $255.61$204K−12.1% of holding−9.3%−24.7%5,824Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-22Milstein JedofficerSale1,132 @ $253.26$287K−9.1% of holding−7.6%−20.6%11,267Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22Calloway DeanofficerSale400 @ $254.40$102K−7.0% of holding−7.6%−20.6%5,295Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-19JAMES JUANITA TdirectorSale625 @ $244.10$153K−8.4% of holding−3.4%−16.5%6,855Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-30ABRAMS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase46,952 @ $225.16$10.6M+2.2% of holding+14.0%−3.2%2,162,992Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Clara DanieldirectorSale1,217 @ $296.64$361K−24.5% of holding−13.5%−22.9%3,747Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Reynolds-Dobbs WendyofficerAward / grant2,0385,621Form 4
2026-07-01Calloway DeanofficerWithheld for tax1958,221Form 4
2026-05-04Clara DanieldirectorAward / grant4,53215,761Form 4
2026-03-16Hult David WdirectorGift5,08585,598Form 4
2026-03-11DiSantis B. ChristopherdirectorAward / grant8436,243Form 4
2026-03-05Hult David WdirectorWithheld for tax2,11385,683Form 4
2026-03-05Clara DanieldirectorWithheld for tax45311,229Form 4
2026-03-05Welch MichaelofficerWithheld for tax42316,309Form 4
2026-03-05Calloway DeanofficerWithheld for tax3028,416Form 4
2026-03-05Milstein JedofficerWithheld for tax30212,574Form 4
2026-03-05Briesemeister Nathan EdwardofficerWithheld for tax252,024Form 4
2026-03-05Calloway DeanofficerAward / grant2,0388,718Form 4
2026-03-05Milstein JedofficerAward / grant2,03812,876Form 4
2026-03-05Welch MichaelofficerAward / grant2,85216,732Form 4
2026-03-05Briesemeister Nathan EdwardofficerAward / grant2542,049Form 4
2026-03-05Clara DanieldirectorAward / grant3,05611,682Form 4
2026-03-05Hult David WdirectorAward / grant14,26187,796Form 4
2026-02-20Hult David WdirectorWithheld for tax1,96773,535Form 4
2026-02-20Hult David WdirectorWithheld for tax1,64075,502Form 4
2026-02-20Clara DanieldirectorWithheld for tax3288,626Form 4
2026-02-20Welch MichaelofficerWithheld for tax32813,880Form 4
2026-02-20Milstein JedofficerWithheld for tax29610,838Form 4
2026-02-20Clara DanieldirectorWithheld for tax2748,954Form 4
2026-02-20Welch MichaelofficerWithheld for tax27414,208Form 4
2026-02-20Milstein JedofficerWithheld for tax24611,134Form 4
2026-02-20Calloway DeanofficerWithheld for tax1036,762Form 4
2026-02-20Calloway DeanofficerWithheld for tax826,680Form 4
2026-02-20Briesemeister Nathan EdwardofficerWithheld for tax341,823Form 4
2026-02-20Briesemeister Nathan EdwardofficerWithheld for tax281,795Form 4
2026-02-19Hult David WdirectorWithheld for tax1,40977,142Form 4
2026-02-19Clara DanieldirectorWithheld for tax3029,228Form 4
2026-02-19Welch MichaelofficerWithheld for tax28214,482Form 4
2026-02-19Milstein JedofficerWithheld for tax20111,380Form 4
2026-02-19Calloway DeanofficerWithheld for tax1436,865Form 4
2026-02-19Briesemeister Nathan EdwardofficerWithheld for tax261,857Form 4
2026-02-14Hult David WdirectorWithheld for tax1,81978,551Form 4
2026-02-14Hult David WdirectorWithheld for tax1,27680,370Form 4
2026-02-14Clara DanieldirectorWithheld for tax3109,530Form 4
2026-02-14Welch MichaelofficerWithheld for tax29214,764Form 4
2026-02-14Clara DanieldirectorWithheld for tax2179,840Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.