Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.37 · now $5.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABEO has typically landed between $3.81 and $7.12 — a range of −29.0% to +32.7% from the issuance price $5.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,999 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ABEO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.33 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.71–$5.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.81–$7.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,999 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-17 | −65.9% | −65.9% | +0.0% |
| 2012-04-18 | −61.9% | −61.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-18 | −59.7% | −62.3% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-01-11 | +247.8% | −11.9% | +247.8% |
| 2007-01-12 | +219.3% | −8.8% | +260.0% |
| 2007-01-19 | +217.3% | +0.0% | +294.6% |
4,999 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
25%
−0.5%
n=20
Feb
55%
+14.8%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.1%
n=20
May
45%
+9.4%
n=20
Jun
30%
−5.3%
n=20
Jul
50%
+3.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Sep
35%
−1.6%
n=20
Oct
40%
−5.4%
n=20
Nov
35%
+2.0%
n=20
Dec
30%
−8.6%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $5.86 | $88K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,065 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-21 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 1,478 @ $6.53 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 492,079 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 67,971 @ $6.96 | $473K | −4.9% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,306,108 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 24,880 @ $6.96 | $173K | −4.8% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 493,557 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Vasanthavada Madhav | officer | Sale | 12,606 @ $6.96 | $88K | −4.2% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 290,623 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 12,050 @ $6.96 | $84K | −2.7% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 427,953 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Alland Leila | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $5.92 | $65K | −6.3% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,614 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Silverstein Christine Berni | director | Sale | 18,160 @ $5.71 | $104K | −13.2% of holding | +24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,562 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 31,916 @ $5.30 | $169K | −2.3% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,374,079 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 25,646 @ $5.39 | $138K | −4.7% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 518,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 13,421 @ $5.30 | $71K | −2.4% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 544,083 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 6,305 @ $5.30 | $33K | −1.4% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 440,003 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Vasanthavada Madhav | officer | Sale | 5,450 @ $5.30 | $29K | −1.8% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,451 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-08 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 24,428 @ $5.43 | $133K | −1.7% of holding | +30.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,405,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 10,271 @ $5.43 | $56K | −1.8% of holding | +30.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 557,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 4,826 @ $5.43 | $26K | −1.1% of holding | +30.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 446,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Vasanthavada Madhav | officer | Sale | 4,170 @ $5.43 | $23K | −1.3% of holding | +30.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 308,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $5.46 | $35K | −7.7% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,565 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 26,143 @ $5.53 | $145K | −41.2% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,313 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Vasanthavada Madhav | officer | Sale | 5,548 @ $5.96 | $33K | −1.7% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,071 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-31 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 29,985 @ $4.38 | $131K | −2.1% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,430,423 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 785 @ $4.76 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | +4.2% | −3.3% | 567,775 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Silverstein Christine Berni | director | Sale | 20,070 @ $5.09 | $102K | −12.7% of holding | −2.4% | +20.4% | 137,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Alland Leila | director | Sale | 18,065 @ $5.09 | $92K | −9.4% of holding | −2.4% | +20.4% | 173,614 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 16,284 @ $5.09 | $83K | −20.4% of holding | −2.4% | +20.4% | 63,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Wuchterl Donald A. | director | Sale | 14,814 @ $5.09 | $75K | −8.1% of holding | −2.4% | +20.4% | 167,935 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $5.09 | $10K | −2.3% of holding | −2.4% | +20.4% | 84,065 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 69,832 @ $5.33 | $372K | −4.6% of holding | −2.4% | +5.1% | 1,460,408 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 18,666 @ $5.33 | $100K | −3.2% of holding | −2.4% | +5.1% | 568,560 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 13,578 @ $5.33 | $72K | −2.9% of holding | −2.4% | +5.1% | 451,134 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Vasanthavada Madhav | officer | Sale | 12,610 @ $5.29 | $67K | −3.8% of holding | −2.4% | +5.1% | 318,619 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 13,500 @ $5.23 | $71K | −21.7% of holding | −1.5% | +11.9% | 48,752 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-29 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $5.31 | $133K | −2.1% of holding | −6.3% | +3.7% | 1,164,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $4.74 | $71K | −19.4% of holding | +10.8% | +8.0% | 62,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 249 @ $5.49 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −20.4% | −7.7% | 1,189,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-30 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $5.24 | $131K | −2.1% of holding | −8.7% | −12.2% | 1,190,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 19,274 @ $5.39 | $104K | −1.6% of holding | −4.5% | −14.5% | 1,215,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 9,366 @ $5.39 | $51K | −2.6% of holding | −4.5% | −14.5% | 350,763 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 9,035 @ $5.39 | $49K | −2.0% of holding | −4.5% | −14.5% | 453,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 688 @ $5.43 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −0.9% | −19.5% | 360,129 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $7.36 | $110K | −3.1% of holding | −22.9% | −36.0% | 462,666 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | Crombez Eric | director | Sale | 4,718 @ $6.93 | $33K | −10.0% of holding | −23.2% | −37.0% | 42,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 1,502 @ $6.64 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | +5.9% | −28.2% | 477,666 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-09 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 69,420 @ $5.86 | $407K | −5.3% of holding | +6.2% | −21.6% | 1,234,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 25,411 @ $5.86 | $149K | −5.0% of holding | +6.2% | −21.6% | 479,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 17,428 @ $5.86 | $102K | −4.6% of holding | +6.2% | −21.6% | 360,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Silverstein Christine Berni | director | Sale | 13,093 @ $5.86 | $77K | −9.8% of holding | +6.2% | −21.6% | 120,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 13,093 @ $5.86 | $77K | −14.5% of holding | +6.2% | −21.6% | 77,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Charles Faith L. | director | Sale | 10,738 @ $5.86 | $63K | −7.2% of holding | +6.2% | −21.6% | 139,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Wuchterl Donald A. | director | Sale | 5,176 @ $5.82 | $30K | −3.4% of holding | +7.4% | −23.8% | 145,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 50,676 @ $6.76 | $343K | −3.7% of holding | −18.0% | −42.8% | 1,303,761 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Sale | 17,795 @ $6.76 | $120K | −3.5% of holding | −18.0% | −42.8% | 491,246 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Sale | 10,470 @ $6.76 | $71K | −2.7% of holding | −18.0% | −42.8% | 378,245 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-27 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $6.38 | $13K | −2.2% of holding | −7.4% | −38.8% | 90,435 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $5.68 | $45K | −8.0% of holding | −2.2% | −40.8% | 92,435 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $4.78 | $120K | −1.8% of holding | +38.7% | −8.8% | 1,355,322 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-29 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $5.38 | $22K | −5.9% of holding | −2.6% | +11.2% | 64,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Alvino Mark | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $5.10 | $20K | −5.5% of holding | +10.9% | +23.5% | 68,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
30 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Vasanthavada Madhav | officer | Other acquisition | 222 | 303,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Alvino Mark | director | Gift | 500 | 77,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Goldan Keith A. | director | Award / grant | 32,751 | 32,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Wuchterl Donald A. | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 182,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Alvino Mark | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 86,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Amoroso Michael | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 217,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Silverstein Christine Berni | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 157,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Zeiher Bernhardt G | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 84,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Crombez Eric | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 79,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Charles Faith L. | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 176,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Alland Leila | director | Award / grant | 37,313 | 191,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Vasanthavada Madhav | officer | Award / grant | 76,621 | 331,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Award / grant | 365,422 | 1,530,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Award / grant | 113,949 | 464,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Award / grant | 133,595 | 587,226 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Award / grant | 13,333 | 504,579 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Withheld for tax | 885 | 1,354,437 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Withheld for tax | 685 | 509,041 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 181 | 388,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Amoroso Michael | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 180,466 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Alland Leila | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 154,366 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Alvino Mark | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 100,435 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Crombez Eric | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 47,145 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Charles Faith L. | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 149,832 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Silverstein Christine Berni | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 133,572 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Wuchterl Donald A. | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 150,612 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Zeiher Bernhardt G | director | Award / grant | 36,101 | 47,145 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-21 | O'Malley Brendan M. | officer | Award / grant | 115,607 | 388,896 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-21 | Seshadri Vishwas | director | Award / grant | 476,435 | 1,380,322 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-21 | Vazzano Joseph Walter | director | Award / grant | 144,509 | 509,726 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.