Issued 2026-09-25 at $12.70 · now $12.70 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ABCL has typically landed between $9.22 and $17.23 — a range of −27.4% to +35.7% from the issuance price $12.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,432 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($12.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ABCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $12.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.54 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.99–$14.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.22–$17.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-27 | −47.1% | −47.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-21 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-22 | −44.4% | −44.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-27 | +138.1% | +0.0% | +138.1% |
| 2026-07-28 | +131.4% | +0.0% | +136.3% |
| 2026-07-29 | +130.1% | +0.0% | +131.9% |
1,432 overlapping windows · 2020-12-11 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- February 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study Evaluating ABCL635 for Vasomotor Symptoms of Menopause (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Hayden Michael R | director | Purchase | 53,613 @ $10.64 | $570K | +4.1% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,373,397 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Montalbano John S. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $11.03 | $110K | +4.1% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Booth Andrew | officer | Purchase | 37,200 @ $10.32 | $384K | +8.3% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 482,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Hayden Michael R | director | Purchase | 46,387 @ $10.37 | $481K | +3.6% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,319,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Montalbano John S. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.77 | $95K | +9.0% of holding | +18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 241,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Booth Andrew | officer | Purchase | 42,600 @ $3.42 | $146K | +27.8% of holding | −1.5% | +201.7% | 195,600 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Thermopylae Holdings Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 38,000 @ $3.44 | $131K | +0.1% of holding | −1.5% | +201.7% | 56,134,097 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Thermopylae Holdings Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 177,457 @ $3.27 | $580K | +0.3% of holding | −1.2% | +232.9% | 56,096,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Montalbano John S. | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $3.57 | $178K | +29.2% of holding | −6.4% | +65.2% | 221,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Thermopylae Holdings Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 343,631 @ $2.16 | $742K | +0.6% of holding | −1.7% | +73.9% | 56,143,640 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | Montalbano John S. | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.30 | $57K | +17.1% of holding | −1.1% | +76.0% | 171,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | Montalbano John S. | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $2.34 | $141K | +69.8% of holding | −0.7% | +63.6% | 146,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-29 | Thermopylae Holdings Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 283,516 @ $2.61 | $740K | +0.5% of holding | −0.3% | −11.5% | 56,086,009 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Hayden Michael R | director | Gift | 50,000 | 1,273,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Seely Lynn | director | Award / grant | 152,207 | 152,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sandor Victor | director | Award / grant | 152,207 | 152,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Montalbano John S. | director | Award / grant | 111,701 | 1,141,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hayden Michael R | director | Award / grant | 111,701 | 1,011,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Quake Stephen | director | Award / grant | 111,701 | 306,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Booth Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 250,000 | 445,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Booth Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 250,000 | 8,501,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Stimart Tryn | officer | Award / grant | 539,265 | 4,646,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Award / grant | 2,106,505 | 13,096,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Lecault Veronique | director | Award / grant | 539,265 | 5,201,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Booth Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 808,898 | 8,751,849 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Thermopylae Holdings Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 225,000 | 55,918,640 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Quake Stephen | director | Award / grant | 194,932 | 194,932 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Lo Andrew | director | Award / grant | 238,864 | 541,354 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Hayden Michael R | director | Award / grant | 238,864 | 899,843 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Montalbano John S. | director | Award / grant | 238,864 | 1,029,843 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Booth Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 1,352,054 | 7,942,951 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Stimart Tryn | officer | Award / grant | 832,033 | 4,106,747 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Award / grant | 2,730,109 | 10,990,332 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Lecault Veronique | director | Award / grant | 832,033 | 4,661,804 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-04 | Thermopylae Holdings Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 286,000 | 55,800,009 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-25 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 898,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-25 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 8,260,223 | Form 4 |
| 2024-09-20 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 841,875 | Form 4 |
| 2024-09-20 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 8,316,348 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-21 | Lecault Veronique | director | Option exercise | 83,334 | 2,123,456 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-21 | Montalbano John S. | director | Award / grant | 163,934 | 790,979 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-21 | Lecault Veronique | director | Option exercise | 83,334 | 3,829,771 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-21 | Lo Andrew | director | Award / grant | 163,934 | 302,490 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-21 | Hayden Michael R | director | Award / grant | 163,934 | 660,979 | Form 4 |
| 2024-05-31 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 785,750 | Form 4 |
| 2024-05-31 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 8,372,473 | Form 4 |
| 2024-02-26 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 729,625 | Form 4 |
| 2024-02-26 | Hansen Carl L. G. | director | Option exercise | 56,125 | 8,428,598 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.