ABBVAbbVie Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Generalas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $264.34 · now $264.34 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ABBV has typically landed between $241.12 and $295.94 — a range of −8.8% to +12.0% from the issuance price $264.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,448 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-12-10 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($264.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ABBV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $264.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$241.12worst · -8.8%$295.94best · +12.0%
  • now $264.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $269.57 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $257.78–$281.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $241.12–$295.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,448 windows spanning 2012-12-10 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−32.1%−32.1%+0.0%
2020-02-24−27.5%−30.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−27.0%−27.0%+0.8%
3 best
2020-10-28+30.3%+0.0%+30.3%
2020-10-29+29.6%+0.0%+30.0%
2020-03-23+28.2%+0.0%+32.1%

3,448 overlapping windows · 2012-12-10 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Pivotal 2 Study of RGX-314 Gene Therapy in Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Pivotal 1 Study of ABBV-RGX-314 (Also Known as RGX-314) Gene Therapy Administered Via Subretinal Delivery One Time in Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Venetoclax in Combination With Carfilzomib and Dexamethasone in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma (MM) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study Of Venetoclax Tablet With Intravenous or Subcutaneous Azacitidine to Assess Change in Disease Activity In Adult Participants With Newly Diagnosed Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • June 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-Up Study of RGX-314 Administered in the Suprachoroidal Space for Participants With and Without Diabetic Retinopathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • July 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-Up Study of RGX-314 Administered in the Suprachoroidal Space for Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$458.1B
market cap
$2.04
EPS (TTM)
127.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$61.2B
'20'25
Net income$4.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$17.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-129.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-21.12
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $264.34$36.44$319.52
  • DCF (intrinsic)$134.91
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$55.96
  • Analyst target · range $223.00–$300.00$278.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$264.34

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
36%
−1.0%
n=14
Feb
86%
+3.9%
n=14
Mar
71%
+0.1%
n=14
Apr
57%
+1.7%
n=14
May
64%
+0.4%
n=14
Jun
50%
+1.9%
n=14
Jul
64%
+2.1%
n=14
Aug
57%
+0.8%
n=14
Sep
57%
+1.6%
n=14
Oct
62%
+1.7%
n=13
Nov
77%
+6.4%
n=13
Dec
69%
+2.6%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$266$1962026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $8.2M — Donoghoe Nicholas2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Purdue David Ryan2026-03-02: 3 insider sales, $4.4M — Siatis Perry C …2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $5.1M — Siatis Perry C2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $11.0M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $5.1M2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $5.6M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $8.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Donoghoe Nicholas — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Purdue David Ryan — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Siatis Perry C — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Siatis Perry C — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Siatis Perry C — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Siatis Perry C — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Donoghoe NicholasofficerSale32,710 @ $250.00$8.2M−30.5% of holding+8.1%not yet — horizon still open74,430Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Purdue David RyanofficerSale5,230 @ $233.56$1.2M−66.3% of holding−7.6%+0.2%2,654Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Siatis Perry CofficerSale10,291 @ $234.66$2.4M−58.8% of holding−2.2%−1.2%7,219Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Siatis Perry CofficerSale5,777 @ $233.51$1.3M−24.8% of holding−2.2%−1.2%17,510Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Siatis Perry CofficerSale2,600 @ $235.26$612K−36.0% of holding−2.2%−1.2%4,619Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Siatis Perry CofficerSale22,381 @ $230.00$5.1M−37.0% of holding−0.3%+6.5%38,137Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITAdirectorSale42,370 @ $198.42$8.4M−19.3% of holding+8.5%+4.6%177,292Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-05Donoghoe NicholasofficerSale10,061 @ $198.59$2.0M−14.7% of holding+3.9%+1.1%58,247Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-05Donoghoe NicholasofficerSale3,234 @ $198.27$641K−4.5% of holding+3.9%+1.1%68,308Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Stewart Jeffrey RyanofficerSale33,132 @ $210.54$7.0M−38.4% of holding−5.2%−7.3%53,234Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Stewart Jeffrey RyanofficerSale25,700 @ $209.49$5.4M−22.9% of holding−5.2%−7.3%86,366Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14Reents Scott TofficerSale17,644 @ $212.34$3.7M−60.4% of holding−11.5%−13.5%11,577Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03Siatis Perry CofficerSale18,008 @ $210.00$3.8M−79.6% of holding+1.2%−8.3%4,619Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale14,973 @ $210.66$3.2M−69.0% of holding+1.2%−8.3%6,730Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03GONZALEZ RICHARD AdirectorSale6,168 @ $210.53$1.3M−1.6% of holding+1.2%−8.3%388,929Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale5,677 @ $209.80$1.2M−20.7% of holding+1.2%−8.3%21,703Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale600 @ $211.32$127K−8.9% of holding+1.2%−8.3%6,130Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28GONZALEZ RICHARD AdirectorSale92,460 @ $205.11$19.0M−19.0% of holding+5.8%−6.7%395,097Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Siatis Perry CofficerSale6,811 @ $206.62$1.4M−57.8% of holding+5.8%−6.7%4,982Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Siatis Perry CofficerSale2,718 @ $205.38$558K−18.7% of holding+5.8%−6.7%11,793Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Siatis Perry CofficerSale363 @ $207.19$75K−7.3% of holding+5.8%−6.7%4,619Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-26Buckbee Kevin KofficerSale16,260 @ $203.41$3.3M−58.6% of holding+4.2%−5.1%11,496Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale13,073 @ $202.92$2.7M−21.0% of holding+4.2%−5.1%49,113Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale4,829 @ $203.63$983K−9.8% of holding+4.2%−5.1%44,284Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale4,781 @ $202.93$970K−9.5% of holding+4.2%−5.1%45,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale4,308 @ $201.97$870K−6.5% of holding+4.2%−5.1%62,186Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Buckbee Kevin KofficerSale2,684 @ $203.40$546K−17.5% of holding+4.2%−5.1%12,646Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale1,526 @ $203.64$311K−3.3% of holding+4.2%−5.1%44,284Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale1,400 @ $202.06$283K−2.7% of holding+4.2%−5.1%50,591Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20Siatis Perry CofficerSale3,994 @ $198.12$791K−15.1% of holding+11.9%+1.4%22,381Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20Siatis Perry CofficerSale1,784 @ $197.40$352K−6.3% of holding+11.9%+1.4%26,375Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16Buckbee Kevin KofficerSale1,800 @ $172.24$310K−20.5% of holding+2.1%+11.1%6,983Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-08-05GONZALEZ RICHARD AdirectorSale66,500 @ $186.52$12.4M−13.0% of holding+0.4%−11.7%446,599Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-07-17GONZALEZ RICHARD AdirectorSale282,845 @ $175.00$49.5M−35.5% of holding+11.0%−6.1%513,099Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-03-20Donoghoe NicholasofficerSale21,082 @ $176.30$3.7M−27.4% of holding+0.2%+1.8%55,903Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-03-18Stewart Jeffrey RyanofficerSale27,740 @ $178.69$5.0M−31.3% of holding−4.7%+0.3%60,941Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-03-18Stewart Jeffrey RyanofficerSale26,110 @ $178.85$4.7M−21.8% of holding−4.7%+0.3%93,780Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-03-18Stewart Jeffrey RyanofficerSale5,099 @ $179.03$913K−5.4% of holding−4.7%+0.3%88,681Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-03-01RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale30,288 @ $177.71$5.4M−40.9% of holding−0.5%+1.2%43,817Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-03-01RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale20,127 @ $177.71$3.6M−59.3% of holding−0.5%+1.2%13,837Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-03-01RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale15,412 @ $176.40$2.7M−17.2% of holding−0.5%+1.2%74,105Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-03-01RICHMOND TIMOTHY J.officerSale9,853 @ $176.35$1.7M−22.5% of holding−0.5%+1.2%33,964Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-02-29Michael Robert A.directorSale47,319 @ $176.46$8.3M−32.4% of holding−0.4%+2.3%98,645Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-29Michael Robert A.directorSale21,560 @ $176.44$3.8M−12.9% of holding−0.4%+2.3%145,964Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-29Siatis Perry CofficerSale6,504 @ $177.05$1.2M−32.1% of holding−0.4%+2.3%13,784Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-29Buckbee Kevin KofficerSale5,144 @ $176.65$909K−42.4% of holding−0.4%+2.3%6,983Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-29Siatis Perry CofficerSale3,387 @ $178.04$603K−24.6% of holding−0.4%+2.3%10,397Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-28GONZALEZ RICHARD AdirectorSale138,616 @ $177.27$24.6M−21.1% of holding−1.3%+0.8%519,099Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-02-23Reents Scott TofficerSale14,140 @ $177.44$2.5M−34.3% of holding−2.4%+1.6%27,065Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2024-02-23Siatis Perry CofficerSale13,753 @ $177.51$2.4M−32.8% of holding−2.4%+1.6%28,173Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-02-21SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITAdirectorSale52,870 @ $173.71$9.2M−17.8% of holding−4.0%+0.8%243,944Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

249 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Donoghoe NicholasofficerOption exercise32,710107,140Form 4
2026-08-14Donoghoe NicholasofficerOption exercise32,7100Form 4
2026-06-30RAPP EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant13429,236Form 4
2026-06-30Quaggin Susan EdirectorAward / grant62853Form 4
2026-05-08WADDELL FREDERICK HdirectorAward / grant1,11830,076Form 4
2026-05-08FREYMAN THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant1,118127,869Form 4
2026-05-08Roberts Rebecca BdirectorAward / grant1,11814,846Form 4
2026-05-08Hart Brett JdirectorAward / grant1,11820,590Form 4
2026-05-08BURNSIDE WILLIAM H.L.directorAward / grant1,11828,076Form 4
2026-05-08MEYER MELODY BdirectorAward / grant1,11817,616Form 4
2026-05-08Davis Jennifer L.directorAward / grant1,1183,643Form 4
2026-05-08Quaggin Susan EdirectorAward / grant1,1183,643Form 4
2026-05-08AUSTIN ROXANNE SdirectorAward / grant1,11839,576Form 4
2026-05-08RAPP EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant1,11845,964Form 4
2026-05-08FALK THOMAS JdirectorAward / grant1,1182,321Form 4
2026-03-31RAPP EDWARD JdirectorAward / grant15528,865Form 4
2026-03-31Quaggin Susan EdirectorAward / grant71784Form 4
2026-03-31Alpern Robert JdirectorAward / grant3510,369Form 4
2026-02-27Michael Robert A.directorWithheld for tax36,523178,737Form 4
2026-02-27Stewart Jeffrey RyanofficerWithheld for tax23,81283,171Form 4
2026-02-27Reents Scott TofficerWithheld for tax21,63838,777Form 4
2026-02-27SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITAdirectorWithheld for tax16,309197,794Form 4
2026-02-27Siatis Perry CofficerWithheld for tax14,85023,287Form 4
2026-02-27Donoghoe NicholasofficerWithheld for tax12,87474,430Form 4
2026-02-27Thakkar RoopalofficerWithheld for tax8,03752,376Form 4
2026-02-27Purdue David RyanofficerWithheld for tax2,6927,884Form 4
2026-02-27Crum Demetris DofficerWithheld for tax1,5947,914Form 4
2026-02-25Siatis Perry CofficerOption exercise7,29214,583Form 4
2026-02-25Siatis Perry CofficerOption exercise7,29260,518Form 4
2026-02-25Siatis Perry CofficerOption exercise7,7757,774Form 4
2026-02-25Siatis Perry CofficerOption exercise7,77553,226Form 4
2026-02-25Siatis Perry CofficerOption exercise7,3140Form 4
2026-02-25Siatis Perry CofficerOption exercise7,31445,451Form 4
2026-02-18SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITAdirectorAward / grant6,638214,103Form 4
2026-02-18SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITAdirectorAward / grant20,31220,312Form 4
2026-02-18Purdue David RyanofficerAward / grant2,5057,010Form 4
2026-02-18Purdue David RyanofficerAward / grant8907,900Form 4
2026-02-18Purdue David RyanofficerAward / grant4,8754,875Form 4
2026-02-18Crum Demetris DofficerAward / grant1,2168,264Form 4
2026-02-18Crum Demetris DofficerAward / grant1,2449,508Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-06-032026-05-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-12-08$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-04-28$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-01-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.