Issued 2026-09-25 at $264.34 · now $264.34 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ABBV has typically landed between $241.12 and $295.94 — a range of −8.8% to +12.0% from the issuance price $264.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,448 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-12-10 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($264.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ABBV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $264.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $264.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $269.57 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $257.78–$281.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $241.12–$295.94
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −32.1% | −32.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −27.5% | −30.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −27.0% | −27.0% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-28 | +30.3% | +0.0% | +30.3% |
| 2020-10-29 | +29.6% | +0.0% | +30.0% |
| 2020-03-23 | +28.2% | +0.0% | +32.1% |
3,448 overlapping windows · 2012-12-10 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Pivotal 2 Study of RGX-314 Gene Therapy in Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Pivotal 1 Study of ABBV-RGX-314 (Also Known as RGX-314) Gene Therapy Administered Via Subretinal Delivery One Time in Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Venetoclax in Combination With Carfilzomib and Dexamethasone in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma (MM) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study Of Venetoclax Tablet With Intravenous or Subcutaneous Azacitidine to Assess Change in Disease Activity In Adult Participants With Newly Diagnosed Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-Up Study of RGX-314 Administered in the Suprachoroidal Space for Participants With and Without Diabetic Retinopathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-Up Study of RGX-314 Administered in the Suprachoroidal Space for Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$134.91
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$55.96
- Analyst target · range $223.00–$300.00$278.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$264.34
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Donoghoe Nicholas | officer | Sale | 32,710 @ $250.00 | $8.2M | −30.5% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,430 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Purdue David Ryan | officer | Sale | 5,230 @ $233.56 | $1.2M | −66.3% of holding | −7.6% | +0.2% | 2,654 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 10,291 @ $234.66 | $2.4M | −58.8% of holding | −2.2% | −1.2% | 7,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 5,777 @ $233.51 | $1.3M | −24.8% of holding | −2.2% | −1.2% | 17,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $235.26 | $612K | −36.0% of holding | −2.2% | −1.2% | 4,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 22,381 @ $230.00 | $5.1M | −37.0% of holding | −0.3% | +6.5% | 38,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITA | director | Sale | 42,370 @ $198.42 | $8.4M | −19.3% of holding | +8.5% | +4.6% | 177,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Donoghoe Nicholas | officer | Sale | 10,061 @ $198.59 | $2.0M | −14.7% of holding | +3.9% | +1.1% | 58,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Donoghoe Nicholas | officer | Sale | 3,234 @ $198.27 | $641K | −4.5% of holding | +3.9% | +1.1% | 68,308 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Stewart Jeffrey Ryan | officer | Sale | 33,132 @ $210.54 | $7.0M | −38.4% of holding | −5.2% | −7.3% | 53,234 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Stewart Jeffrey Ryan | officer | Sale | 25,700 @ $209.49 | $5.4M | −22.9% of holding | −5.2% | −7.3% | 86,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Reents Scott T | officer | Sale | 17,644 @ $212.34 | $3.7M | −60.4% of holding | −11.5% | −13.5% | 11,577 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 18,008 @ $210.00 | $3.8M | −79.6% of holding | +1.2% | −8.3% | 4,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 14,973 @ $210.66 | $3.2M | −69.0% of holding | +1.2% | −8.3% | 6,730 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | GONZALEZ RICHARD A | director | Sale | 6,168 @ $210.53 | $1.3M | −1.6% of holding | +1.2% | −8.3% | 388,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 5,677 @ $209.80 | $1.2M | −20.7% of holding | +1.2% | −8.3% | 21,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $211.32 | $127K | −8.9% of holding | +1.2% | −8.3% | 6,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | GONZALEZ RICHARD A | director | Sale | 92,460 @ $205.11 | $19.0M | −19.0% of holding | +5.8% | −6.7% | 395,097 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 6,811 @ $206.62 | $1.4M | −57.8% of holding | +5.8% | −6.7% | 4,982 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 2,718 @ $205.38 | $558K | −18.7% of holding | +5.8% | −6.7% | 11,793 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 363 @ $207.19 | $75K | −7.3% of holding | +5.8% | −6.7% | 4,619 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Buckbee Kevin K | officer | Sale | 16,260 @ $203.41 | $3.3M | −58.6% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 11,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 13,073 @ $202.92 | $2.7M | −21.0% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 49,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 4,829 @ $203.63 | $983K | −9.8% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 44,284 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 4,781 @ $202.93 | $970K | −9.5% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 45,810 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 4,308 @ $201.97 | $870K | −6.5% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 62,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Buckbee Kevin K | officer | Sale | 2,684 @ $203.40 | $546K | −17.5% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 12,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 1,526 @ $203.64 | $311K | −3.3% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 44,284 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $202.06 | $283K | −2.7% of holding | +4.2% | −5.1% | 50,591 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 3,994 @ $198.12 | $791K | −15.1% of holding | +11.9% | +1.4% | 22,381 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 1,784 @ $197.40 | $352K | −6.3% of holding | +11.9% | +1.4% | 26,375 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Buckbee Kevin K | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $172.24 | $310K | −20.5% of holding | +2.1% | +11.1% | 6,983 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-05 | GONZALEZ RICHARD A | director | Sale | 66,500 @ $186.52 | $12.4M | −13.0% of holding | +0.4% | −11.7% | 446,599 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-17 | GONZALEZ RICHARD A | director | Sale | 282,845 @ $175.00 | $49.5M | −35.5% of holding | +11.0% | −6.1% | 513,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-20 | Donoghoe Nicholas | officer | Sale | 21,082 @ $176.30 | $3.7M | −27.4% of holding | +0.2% | +1.8% | 55,903 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-18 | Stewart Jeffrey Ryan | officer | Sale | 27,740 @ $178.69 | $5.0M | −31.3% of holding | −4.7% | +0.3% | 60,941 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-18 | Stewart Jeffrey Ryan | officer | Sale | 26,110 @ $178.85 | $4.7M | −21.8% of holding | −4.7% | +0.3% | 93,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-18 | Stewart Jeffrey Ryan | officer | Sale | 5,099 @ $179.03 | $913K | −5.4% of holding | −4.7% | +0.3% | 88,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 30,288 @ $177.71 | $5.4M | −40.9% of holding | −0.5% | +1.2% | 43,817 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 20,127 @ $177.71 | $3.6M | −59.3% of holding | −0.5% | +1.2% | 13,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 15,412 @ $176.40 | $2.7M | −17.2% of holding | −0.5% | +1.2% | 74,105 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-01 | RICHMOND TIMOTHY J. | officer | Sale | 9,853 @ $176.35 | $1.7M | −22.5% of holding | −0.5% | +1.2% | 33,964 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-29 | Michael Robert A. | director | Sale | 47,319 @ $176.46 | $8.3M | −32.4% of holding | −0.4% | +2.3% | 98,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-29 | Michael Robert A. | director | Sale | 21,560 @ $176.44 | $3.8M | −12.9% of holding | −0.4% | +2.3% | 145,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-29 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 6,504 @ $177.05 | $1.2M | −32.1% of holding | −0.4% | +2.3% | 13,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-29 | Buckbee Kevin K | officer | Sale | 5,144 @ $176.65 | $909K | −42.4% of holding | −0.4% | +2.3% | 6,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-29 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 3,387 @ $178.04 | $603K | −24.6% of holding | −0.4% | +2.3% | 10,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-28 | GONZALEZ RICHARD A | director | Sale | 138,616 @ $177.27 | $24.6M | −21.1% of holding | −1.3% | +0.8% | 519,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-23 | Reents Scott T | officer | Sale | 14,140 @ $177.44 | $2.5M | −34.3% of holding | −2.4% | +1.6% | 27,065 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-23 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Sale | 13,753 @ $177.51 | $2.4M | −32.8% of holding | −2.4% | +1.6% | 28,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-21 | SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITA | director | Sale | 52,870 @ $173.71 | $9.2M | −17.8% of holding | −4.0% | +0.8% | 243,944 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
249 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Donoghoe Nicholas | officer | Option exercise | 32,710 | 107,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Donoghoe Nicholas | officer | Option exercise | 32,710 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | RAPP EDWARD J | director | Award / grant | 134 | 29,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Quaggin Susan E | director | Award / grant | 62 | 853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | WADDELL FREDERICK H | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 30,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | FREYMAN THOMAS C | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 127,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Roberts Rebecca B | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 14,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Hart Brett J | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 20,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | BURNSIDE WILLIAM H.L. | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 28,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | MEYER MELODY B | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 17,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Davis Jennifer L. | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 3,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Quaggin Susan E | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 3,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | AUSTIN ROXANNE S | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 39,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | RAPP EDWARD J | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 45,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | FALK THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 1,118 | 2,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | RAPP EDWARD J | director | Award / grant | 155 | 28,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Quaggin Susan E | director | Award / grant | 71 | 784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Alpern Robert J | director | Award / grant | 35 | 10,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Michael Robert A. | director | Withheld for tax | 36,523 | 178,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Stewart Jeffrey Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,812 | 83,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Reents Scott T | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,638 | 38,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITA | director | Withheld for tax | 16,309 | 197,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,850 | 23,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Donoghoe Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,874 | 74,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Thakkar Roopal | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,037 | 52,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Purdue David Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,692 | 7,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Crum Demetris D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,594 | 7,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Option exercise | 7,292 | 14,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Option exercise | 7,292 | 60,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Option exercise | 7,775 | 7,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Option exercise | 7,775 | 53,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Option exercise | 7,314 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Siatis Perry C | officer | Option exercise | 7,314 | 45,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITA | director | Award / grant | 6,638 | 214,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | SALEKI-GERHARDT AZITA | director | Award / grant | 20,312 | 20,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Purdue David Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 2,505 | 7,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Purdue David Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 890 | 7,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Purdue David Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 4,875 | 4,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Crum Demetris D | officer | Award / grant | 1,216 | 8,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Crum Demetris D | officer | Award / grant | 1,244 | 9,508 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-12-08 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2025-04-28 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-01-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.