Issued 2026-08-13 at $250.88 · now $250.88 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, ABBV has typically landed between $228.27 and $280.87 — a range of −9.0% to +12.0% from the issuance price $250.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,418 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-12-10 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($250.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ABBV has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $250.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $250.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $255.55 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $244.12–$266.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $228.27–$280.87
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −32.1% | −32.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −27.5% | −30.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −27.0% | −27.0% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-28 | +30.3% | +0.0% | +30.3% |
| 2020-10-29 | +29.6% | +0.0% | +30.0% |
| 2020-03-23 | +28.2% | +0.0% | +32.1% |
3,418 overlapping windows · 2012-12-10 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Pivotal 2 Study of RGX-314 Gene Therapy in Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Pivotal 1 Study of ABBV-RGX-314 (Also Known as RGX-314) Gene Therapy Administered Via Subretinal Delivery One Time in Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Venetoclax in Combination With Carfilzomib and Dexamethasone in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma (MM) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study Of Venetoclax Tablet With Intravenous or Subcutaneous Azacitidine to Assess Change in Disease Activity In Adult Participants With Newly Diagnosed Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-Up Study of RGX-314 Administered in the Suprachoroidal Space for Participants With and Without Diabetic Retinopathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-Term Follow-Up Study of RGX-314 Administered in the Suprachoroidal Space for Participants With nAMD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$134.91
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$55.96
- Analyst target · range $223.00–$300.00$278.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$250.88
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
2 award/RSU grants excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-12-08 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2025-04-28 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-01-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.