ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company Common StockBasic Materials · Industrial Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.12 · now $2.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ABAT has typically landed between $1.43 and $3.45 — a range of −32.7% to +62.5% from the issuance price $2.12.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,627 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-02-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ABAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.43worst · -32.7%$3.45best · +62.5%
  • now $2.12 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2 (-5.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.69–$2.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.43–$3.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,627 windows spanning 2016-02-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2016-08-19−75.8%−75.8%+0.0%
2016-08-23−69.6%−71.9%+1.0%
2016-08-22−69.4%−70.7%+5.3%
3 best
2020-12-17+916.9%+0.0%+916.9%
2020-11-23+893.6%+0.0%+893.6%
2020-12-15+823.8%+0.0%+823.8%

2,627 overlapping windows · 2016-02-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+13.3%
n=10
Feb
30%
−1.9%
n=10
Mar
45%
−6.2%
n=11
Apr
55%
+19.2%
n=11
May
45%
+9.7%
n=11
Jun
36%
+5.0%
n=11
Jul
27%
−8.3%
n=11
Aug
27%
−7.6%
n=11
Sep
36%
+3.5%
n=11
Oct
40%
−4.8%
n=10
Nov
30%
−3.0%
n=10
Dec
40%
+56.7%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$22026-08-25: 2 insider purchases, $937K — Melsert Ryan Mitchell, Wu Steven2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $411K — Wu Steven2026-06-05: 2 insider purchases, $3.5M — Melsert Ryan Mitchell, Wu Steven2025-12-16: 2 insider sales, $217K — Lowery Elizabeth Ann, JOLCOVER SCOTT2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $50K — Wu Steven2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $391K — Fezell Donald Richard JR2025-10-16: 1 insider sale, $805K — Melsert Ryan Mitchell2025-09-16: 1 insider purchase, $1.3M — Wu Steven2025-09-04: 2 insider purchases, $2.9M — Melsert Ryan Mitchell, JOLCOVER SCOTT2025-09: 3 open-market purchases, $4.3M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $805K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $391K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $267K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $3.5M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $411K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $937K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Melsert Ryan Mitchell — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed same dayofficer Wu Steven — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed same dayofficer Wu Steven — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed same daydirector Melsert Ryan Mitchell — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Wu Steven — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Lowery Elizabeth Ann — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer JOLCOVER SCOTT — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wu Steven — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fezell Donald Richard JR — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Melsert Ryan Mitchell — Sale on 2025-10-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wu Steven — Purchase on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Melsert Ryan Mitchell — Purchase on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer JOLCOVER SCOTT — Purchase on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase631,375 @ $0.99$625Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open631,375Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-25Wu StevenofficerPurchase291,540 @ $1.07$312Kownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open291,540Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15Wu StevenofficerSale115,480 @ $3.56$411K−25.2% of holding−28.3%not yet — horizon still open342,695Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase2,367,656 @ $0.99$2.3Mownership Δ n/a−17.4%not yet — horizon still open2,367,656Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-05Wu StevenofficerPurchase1,093,275 @ $1.07$1.2Mownership Δ n/a−17.4%not yet — horizon still open1,093,275Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-16Lowery Elizabeth AnndirectorSale37,600 @ $3.97$149K−38.0% of holding+18.3%−33.1%61,318Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-16JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerSale17,500 @ $3.88$68K−5.2% of holding+18.3%−33.1%321,424Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-04Wu StevenofficerSale12,333 @ $4.05$50K−4.1% of holding+2.9%−17.9%286,236Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-10Fezell Donald Richard JRdirectorSale90,000 @ $4.34$391K−22.2% of holding−7.2%−26.6%315,591Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-16Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorSale78,746 @ $10.22$805K−2.8% of holding−38.2%−46.7%2,769,186Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Wu StevenofficerPurchase1,240,709 @ $1.07$1.3Mownership Δ n/a+258.4%+22.9%1,240,709Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-04Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase2,525,497 @ $0.99$2.5Mownership Δ n/a+91.0%+30.1%2,525,497Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerPurchase428,279 @ $0.99$424Kownership Δ n/a+91.0%+30.1%428,279Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20Lowery Elizabeth AnndirectorSale14,922 @ $1.40$21K−19.1% of holding−9.2%+153.5%63,145Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Lowery Elizabeth AnndirectorSale95,078 @ $1.41$134K−54.9% of holding−4.0%+129.9%78,067Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-30Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorSale131,579 @ $1.71$225K−6.9% of holding−29.7%+188.2%1,774,795Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-13Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase197,914 @ $4.33$857Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%197,914Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase196,988 @ $4.33$853Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%196,988Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase65,386 @ $10.50$687Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%65,386Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase23,609 @ $10.49$248Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%23,609Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerPurchase46,835 @ $4.29$201Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%46,835Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase157,844 @ $0.99$156Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%157,844Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerPurchase32,754 @ $4.29$141Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%32,754Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerPurchase7,948 @ $6.60$52Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%7,948Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerPurchase4,533 @ $6.53$30Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%4,533Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerPurchase26,307 @ $0.99$26Kownership Δ n/a−40.5%+5.0%26,307Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-03Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorPurchase142,148 @ $4.33$616Kownership Δ n/a+186.6%+56.9%142,148Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-03JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerPurchase28,768 @ $4.29$123Kownership Δ n/a+186.6%+56.9%28,768Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

148 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax8663,409,469Form 4
2026-09-02Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant33,3833,410,335Form 4
2026-08-24Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax39,3973,376,952Form 4
2026-08-24Wu StevenofficerWithheld for tax31,344421,642Form 4
2026-08-22Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant102,9973,416,349Form 4
2026-08-22Wu StevenofficerAward / grant63,373452,986Form 4
2026-07-22Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax7,7803,313,352Form 4
2026-07-20Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant20,8343,321,132Form 4
2026-07-20JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerAward / grant8,334429,542Form 4
2026-07-06Lowery Elizabeth AnndirectorAward / grant10,94993,751Form 4
2026-07-06Lee Susan YdirectorAward / grant10,949192,200Form 4
2026-07-06Fezell Donald Richard JRdirectorAward / grant22,629382,621Form 4
2026-07-02Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax21,2423,300,298Form 4
2026-07-01Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax24,6953,321,540Form 4
2026-07-01Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant54,7283,346,235Form 4
2026-07-01JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerAward / grant21,569421,208Form 4
2026-06-30Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant54,9713,280,570Form 4
2026-06-30Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant10,9373,291,507Form 4
2026-06-30JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerAward / grant9,134399,639Form 4
2026-06-17Wu StevenofficerWithheld for tax55,680389,613Form 4
2026-06-16Wu StevenofficerAward / grant102,598445,293Form 4
2026-06-08Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax138,2703,225,599Form 4
2026-06-08Wu StevenofficerWithheld for tax107,760458,175Form 4
2026-06-04Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant337,9553,363,869Form 4
2026-06-04Wu StevenofficerAward / grant203,700565,935Form 4
2026-06-02Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax9,3232,996,240Form 4
2026-06-02Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant29,6743,025,914Form 4
2026-06-01Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant33,3843,005,563Form 4
2026-04-22Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax4,9622,972,179Form 4
2026-04-20Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant20,8322,977,141Form 4
2026-04-20JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerAward / grant8,333390,505Form 4
2026-04-06Lowery Elizabeth AnndirectorAward / grant11,97782,802Form 4
2026-04-06Lee Susan YdirectorAward / grant11,977181,251Form 4
2026-04-06Fezell Donald Richard JRdirectorAward / grant24,753359,992Form 4
2026-04-01Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorWithheld for tax17,9192,956,309Form 4
2026-04-01Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant10,9382,912,816Form 4
2026-04-01Melsert Ryan MitchelldirectorAward / grant61,4122,974,228Form 4
2026-04-01JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerAward / grant6,250357,721Form 4
2026-04-01JOLCOVER SCOTTofficerAward / grant24,451382,172Form 4
2026-03-17Wu StevenofficerWithheld for tax27,635362,235Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.