AATAmerican Assets Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.79 · now $21.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AAT has typically landed between $19.27 and $24.28 — a range of −11.5% to +11.4% from the issuance price $21.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,920 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-01-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$19.27worst · -11.5%$24.28best · +11.4%
  • now $21.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.8 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.67–$22.94
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.27–$24.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,920 windows spanning 2011-01-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−52.4%−52.4%+0.0%
2020-02-21−51.2%−51.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−50.1%−51.7%+0.2%
3 best
2020-11-04+44.7%−2.4%+46.1%
2020-10-28+43.6%−0.4%+49.3%
2020-11-06+41.2%+0.0%+49.8%

3,920 overlapping windows · 2011-01-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+0.8%
n=15
Feb
44%
−1.4%
n=16
Mar
63%
−1.6%
n=16
Apr
63%
+1.7%
n=16
May
56%
+0.4%
n=16
Jun
88%
+2.5%
n=16
Jul
56%
+3.2%
n=16
Aug
50%
−1.2%
n=16
Sep
19%
−2.6%
n=16
Oct
67%
+1.4%
n=15
Nov
73%
+3.7%
n=15
Dec
53%
+0.9%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$26$172026-09-14: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-09-02: 1 insider purchase, $2.2M — RADY ERNEST S2026-09-01: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-31: 1 insider purchase, $447K — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-28: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-26: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-24: 1 insider purchase, $676K — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $228K — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $81K — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-17: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $2.3M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $2.3M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $2.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-07: 1 insider purchase, $748K — RADY ERNEST S2026-08-05: 1 insider purchase, $69K — RADY ERNEST S2026-06-15: 1 insider purchase, $242K — RADY ERNEST S2026-06-12: 1 insider purchase, $246K — RADY ERNEST S2026-06-11: 2 insider purchases, $246K — RADY ERNEST S …2026-06-10: 1 insider purchase, $246K — RADY ERNEST S2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $234K — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $236K — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-28: 1 insider purchase, $375K — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-27: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-22: 1 insider purchase, $227K — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-21: 1 insider purchase, $1.2M — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $104K — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $366K — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-18: 2 insider purchases, $1.5M — RADY ERNEST S …2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $610K — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $1.6M — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $1.6M — RADY ERNEST S2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $308K — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-26: 1 insider purchase, $103K — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-25: 1 insider purchase, $109K — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-24: 1 insider purchase, $556K — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-23: 1 insider purchase, $975K — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $68K — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-19: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-18: 1 insider purchase, $1.9M — RADY ERNEST S2026-02-17: 1 insider purchase, $36K — RADY ERNEST S2026-02: 8 open-market purchases, $4.8M2026-05: 13 open-market purchases, $10.0M2026-06: 6 open-market purchases, $1.2M2026-08: 15 open-market purchases, $15.7M2026-09: 3 open-market purchases, $4.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-28, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-26, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-21, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-19, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-06-12, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-26, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-19, filed same daydirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RADY ERNEST S — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $21.65$1.1M+2.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,463,658Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-02RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase96,636 @ $22.50$2.2M+4.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,413,658Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $22.40$1.1M+0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,115,846Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $22.33$447K+0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,065,846Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-28RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $22.52$1.1M+0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,045,846Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-27RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $22.56$1.1M+2.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,317,022Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-26RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $22.89$1.1M+0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,995,846Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-24RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase29,729 @ $22.74$676K+0.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,945,846Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-21RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $22.75$1.1M+0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,916,117Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-19RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $22.77$228K+0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,866,117Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-18RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase3,586 @ $22.69$81K+0.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,856,117Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $22.55$1.1M+0.6% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open8,852,531Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-14RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $22.79$1.1M+0.6% of holding−2.6%not yet — horizon still open8,802,531Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $22.86$2.3M+1.2% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open8,752,531Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $22.52$2.3M+1.2% of holding−2.6%not yet — horizon still open8,652,531Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase93,243 @ $22.45$2.1M+1.1% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open8,552,531Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase32,763 @ $22.82$748K+0.4% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open8,459,288Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $23.04$69K+2.9% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open107,859Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $24.21$242K+0.1% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open8,426,525Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $24.63$246K+0.1% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open8,416,525Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-11RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $24.62$197K+0.1% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open8,406,525Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $24.62$49K+1.9% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open104,859Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $24.64$246K+0.1% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open8,398,525Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $23.40$234K+0.1% of holding+10.7%not yet — horizon still open8,388,525Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-29RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $23.59$236K+0.1% of holding+8.6%not yet — horizon still open8,378,525Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-28RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase16,337 @ $22.96$375K+0.2% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open8,368,525Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase80,000 @ $22.56$1.8M+1.0% of holding+16.0%not yet — horizon still open8,352,188Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-22RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $22.67$227K+0.1% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open8,272,188Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase56,656 @ $21.70$1.2M+0.7% of holding+12.5%not yet — horizon still open8,262,188Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-20RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase4,880 @ $21.32$104K+0.1% of holding+12.4%not yet — horizon still open8,205,532Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase17,319 @ $21.15$366K+0.2% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open8,200,652Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase68,768 @ $21.00$1.4M+0.8% of holding+14.6%not yet — horizon still open8,183,333Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase2,400 @ $21.00$50K+2.4% of holding+14.6%not yet — horizon still open102,859Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase29,360 @ $20.79$610K+2.5% of holding+17.7%not yet — horizon still open1,209,021Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-14RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase78,000 @ $21.09$1.6M+7.1% of holding+17.3%not yet — horizon still open1,179,661Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase78,000 @ $20.99$1.6M+7.6% of holding+19.4%not yet — horizon still open1,101,661Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase14,640 @ $21.01$308K+1.5% of holding+17.6%not yet — horizon still open1,023,661Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-26RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase5,151 @ $20.06$103K+0.1% of holding−0.0%+3.4%8,114,565Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase5,597 @ $19.52$109K+0.1% of holding+2.5%+8.2%8,109,414Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase28,858 @ $19.28$556K+0.4% of holding+1.2%+11.9%8,106,817Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $19.50$975K+0.6% of holding+0.3%+9.9%8,077,959Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase3,528 @ $19.37$68K+0.0% of holding+2.2%+8.9%8,027,959Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase57,898 @ $18.83$1.1M+0.7% of holding+3.8%+13.0%8,024,431Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-18RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $18.81$1.9M+1.3% of holding+6.2%+12.6%7,966,533Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17RADY ERNEST SdirectorPurchase1,968 @ $18.53$36K+0.0% of holding+5.9%+11.5%7,866,533Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-03Wyll AdamofficerSale30,238 @ $28.22$853K−39.9% of holding−4.0%−25.2%45,595Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

28 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01SULLIVAN ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant3,84330,350Form 4
2026-06-01Schaefer Joy L.directorAward / grant3,8438,296Form 4
2026-06-01TANZ STUART AdirectorAward / grant3,8433,843Form 4
2026-06-01Olinger Thomas SdirectorAward / grant3,84332,138Form 4
2025-12-04Wyll AdamofficerWithheld for tax10,478325,699Form 4
2025-12-03Barton Robert F.officerAward / grant99,681194,899Form 4
2025-12-03Wyll AdamofficerAward / grant161,023336,177Form 4
2025-12-03Gammieri JerryofficerAward / grant34,505122,285Form 4
2025-12-02Wyll AdamofficerWithheld for tax37,049182,070Form 4
2025-12-02Barton Robert F.officerWithheld for tax33,267100,979Form 4
2025-12-02Gammieri JerryofficerWithheld for tax12,70190,001Form 4
2025-12-02Barton Robert F.officerDisposition5,76195,218Form 4
2025-12-02Gammieri JerryofficerDisposition2,22187,780Form 4
2025-12-02RADY ERNEST SdirectorDisposition2,778105,556Form 4
2025-12-02Wyll AdamofficerDisposition6,916175,154Form 4
2025-06-02Tran Nina AdirectorAward / grant4,4536,748Form 4
2025-06-02Olinger Thomas SdirectorAward / grant4,45328,295Form 4
2025-06-02SULLIVAN ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant4,45326,507Form 4
2025-06-02Schaefer Joy L.directorAward / grant4,4536,748Form 4
2024-12-04Barton Robert F.officerAward / grant60,241184,246Form 4
2024-12-04Wyll AdamofficerAward / grant146,040275,114Form 4
2024-12-04Gammieri JerryofficerAward / grant23,001102,702Form 4
2024-12-03Gammieri JerryofficerWithheld for tax12,37880,195Form 4
2024-12-03Barton Robert F.officerWithheld for tax8,174125,239Form 4
2024-12-03Barton Robert F.officerDisposition1,234124,005Form 4
2024-12-03Gammieri JerryofficerDisposition49479,701Form 4
2024-12-03Wyll AdamofficerDisposition1,172129,074Form 4
2024-12-03RADY ERNEST SdirectorDisposition2,777176,794Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.