AARDAardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Common StockHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.15 · now $5.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AARD has typically landed between $3.16 and $8.40 — a range of −38.6% to +63.1% from the issuance price $5.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

378 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AARD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.16worst · -38.6%$8.4best · +63.1%
  • now $5.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5 (-2.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.69–$6.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.16–$8.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 378 windows spanning 2025-02-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-24−72.1%−72.1%+0.0%
2026-02-25−71.6%−71.6%+1.0%
2026-02-26−71.6%−71.9%+0.0%
3 best
2025-09-09+116.6%−1.5%+120.1%
2025-09-08+112.3%−5.0%+112.3%
2026-06-09+112.3%−2.8%+112.3%

378 overlapping windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
0%
−1.1%
n=1
Feb
0%
−3.8%
n=1
Mar
0%
−55.4%
n=2
Apr
100%
+46.0%
n=2
May
0%
−15.2%
n=2
Jun
100%
+34.8%
n=2
Jul
50%
+1.7%
n=2
Aug
0%
−19.2%
n=2
Sep
50%
+22.3%
n=2
Oct
0%
−19.6%
n=1
Nov
0%
−6.6%
n=1
Dec
100%
+31.6%
n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$32026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $321K — Sun Nelson2026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $74K — Sun Nelson2025-12-11: 2 insider purchases, $145K — Lee Tien-Li, Sun Nelson2025-09-15: 2 insider purchases, $97K — Lee Tien-Li …2025-09-12: 1 insider purchase, $43K — Lee Tien-Li2025-09-11: 1 insider purchase, $47K — Lee Tien-Li2025-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $71K — Lee Tien-Li2025-09-09: 1 insider purchase, $48K — Sun Nelson2025-09: 6 open-market purchases, $306K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $145K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $395K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Sun Nelson — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed same dayofficer Sun Nelson — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lee Tien-Li — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sun Nelson — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lee Tien-Li — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lee Tien-Li — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lee Tien-Li — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed same daydirector Lee Tien-Li — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lee Tien-Li — Purchase on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sun Nelson — Purchase on 2025-09-09, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Sun NelsonofficerSale62,000 @ $5.18$321K−63.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open35,475Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-10Sun NelsonofficerSale14,754 @ $5.00$74K−13.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open97,475Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Lee Tien-LidirectorPurchase7,000 @ $14.48$101K+0.5% of holding−2.4%−85.5%1,551,613Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11Sun NelsonofficerPurchase3,000 @ $14.40$43K+2.8% of holding−2.4%−85.5%108,484Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15Lee Tien-LidirectorPurchase6,500 @ $9.51$62K+0.4% of holding+48.8%−48.5%1,539,884Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15Lee Tien-LidirectorPurchase3,500 @ $9.94$35K+0.2% of holding+48.8%−48.5%1,543,384Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12Lee Tien-LidirectorPurchase5,000 @ $8.50$43K+0.3% of holding+69.2%−40.0%1,533,384Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Lee Tien-LidirectorPurchase6,000 @ $7.82$47K+0.4% of holding+109.2%−35.9%1,528,384Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-10Lee Tien-LidirectorPurchase9,000 @ $7.91$71K+0.6% of holding+104.2%−37.0%1,522,384Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-09Sun NelsonofficerPurchase6,000 @ $8.07$48K+6.0% of holding+112.8%−38.9%105,484Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase625,000 @ $16.00$10.0M+187.5% of holding−21.2%−27.6%958,412Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase625,000 @ $16.00$10.0M+26.8% of holding−21.2%−27.6%2,958,887Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Cormorant Asset Management, LPotherPurchase187,500 @ $16.00$3.0M+23.4% of holding−21.2%−27.6%987,689Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Lee Tien-LidirectorPurchase16,542 @ $16.00$265K+1.1% of holding−21.2%−27.6%1,496,175Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-14Sun NelsonofficerPurchase10,000 @ $16.00$160K+11.2% of holding−21.2%−27.6%99,484Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Tong Victor Edward JrdirectorAward / grant44,96444,964Form 4
2026-08-14Chi JeffreydirectorAward / grant44,96444,964Form 4
2026-08-14Baynes Roy D.directorAward / grant44,96444,964Form 4
2026-08-14Graf Susan EdirectorAward / grant44,96444,964Form 4
2026-02-09Lee Tien-LidirectorAward / grant203,851203,851Form 4
2026-02-09Sun NelsonofficerAward / grant70,54970,549Form 4
2026-02-09Jaiman ManasiofficerAward / grant70,54970,549Form 4
2025-10-15Jones BryanofficerOption exercise1,2501,250Form 4
2025-10-15Lee Tien-LidirectorOption exercise1,2291,544,613Form 4
2025-10-15Lee Tien-LidirectorOption exercise1,22940,566Form 4
2025-10-15Jones BryanofficerOption exercise1,25040,052Form 4
2025-08-28Lee Tien-LidirectorOption exercise17,2091,513,384Form 4
2025-08-28Lee Tien-LidirectorOption exercise17,20941,795Form 4
2025-06-11Chi JeffreydirectorAward / grant61,01761,017Form 4
2025-06-11Jones BryanofficerAward / grant122,033122,033Form 4
2025-06-11Baynes Roy D.directorAward / grant30,50830,508Form 4
2025-06-11Sun NelsonofficerAward / grant209,826209,826Form 4
2025-06-11Jaiman ManasiofficerAward / grant126,999126,999Form 4
2025-06-11Lee Tien-LidirectorAward / grant549,534549,534Form 4
2025-06-11Tong Victor Edward JrdirectorAward / grant61,01761,017Form 4
2025-06-11Graf Susan EdirectorAward / grant30,50830,508Form 4
2025-02-14Lee Tien-LidirectorConversion350,0020Form 4
2025-02-14Vickers Venture Fund VI Pte LtdtenPercentOwnerConversion3,503,9190Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion19,777,3630Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion2,825,3370Form 4
2025-02-14Chi JeffreydirectorConversion1,130,1350Form 4
2025-02-14Sun NelsonofficerConversion59,3320Form 4
2025-02-14Vickers Venture Fund VI Pte LtdtenPercentOwnerConversion13,875,4290Form 4
2025-02-14Lee Tien-LidirectorConversion41,3031,479,633Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion2,333,8872,333,887Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion333,412333,412Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion2,333,8872,333,887Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion2,333,8872,333,887Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion333,412333,412Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion333,412333,412Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion2,333,8872,333,887Form 4
2025-02-14Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerConversion333,412333,412Form 4
2025-02-14Cormorant Asset Management, LPotherConversion800,189800,189Form 4
2025-02-14Vickers Venture Fund VI Pte LtdtenPercentOwnerConversion413,4912,050,902Form 4
2025-02-14Cormorant Asset Management, LPotherConversion6,780,8100Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.