A report described tension between U.S. policy priorities of lowering consumer prices and boosting domestic chip production, noting Apple and Micron are both affected by the debate over Chinese chips.
Read →Issued 2026-08-13 at $305.26 · now $305.26 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, AAPL has typically landed between $271.20 and $343.74 — a range of −11.2% to +12.6% from the issuance price $305.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($305.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AAPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $305.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $305.26 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $310.48 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $293.38–$327.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $271.2–$343.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-08 | −43.6% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-10 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.7% |
| 2008-09-09 | −40.7% | −41.2% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +38.7% | −2.7% | +38.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +38.6% | +0.0% | +42.6% |
| 2020-07-24 | +36.1% | +0.0% | +36.1% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$4.9T
market cap
$8.27
EPS (TTM)
40.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$416.2B
'20'25
Net income$112.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$98.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr26.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr151.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.52
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$145.49
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$282.88
- Analyst target · range $253.00–$400.00$330.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$305.26
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−0.2%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.7%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.6%
n=19
May
63%
+3.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
89%
+6.6%
n=19
Aug
63%
+4.5%
n=19
Sep
39%
−1.8%
n=18
Oct
67%
+3.0%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.8%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
4 option exercises, 2 tax-withholding dispositions and 1 gifts excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $250–500K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-24 | $15–50K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | sale | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Tim Walberg | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2025-02-07 | $15–50K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Ed Case | House | purchase | 2026-05-31 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| John Mcguire | House | purchase | 2026-05-13 | 2026-04-15 | $1–15K |
What's happening · recap
claude-opus-4-8Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
On 2026-07-24, multiple outlets reported that Apple shares helped support the Dow while broader semiconductor and megacap technology stocks faced pressure, and coverage noted Apple's upcoming quarterly results and a policy conflict involving chip sourcing from China.
In the news
An article grouped Apple with Visa as companies generating substantial cash, ahead of both firms' upcoming quarterly results.
Read →A market commentary noted a rotation among Magnificent Seven stocks with Apple shares moving higher amid the shift.
Read →An opinion piece described continued personal share purchases of Apple stock by the writer.
Read →U.S. stocks were reported mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining partly due to Apple shares offsetting weakness in semiconductor stocks, while the S&P 500 closed near flat.
Read →A report stated that Magnificent Seven stocks, a group that includes Apple, lost a combined $787 billion in market value in a single day amid concerns over AI infrastructure spending following Alphabet and Tesla earnings.
Read →An article on the Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV) noted its portfolio composition includes tech mega-caps and discussed sector-tilt weighting affecting yield calculations.
Read →A market wrap noted the S&P 500 rose 0.6% at midday amid easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices, highlighting a divergence between traditional-economy gains and technology-sector movement.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.